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PERSPECTIVES ON MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Rolando Cordera Campos *, Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid* and Stefanie Garry** *Programa Universitario de Estudios del Desarrollo (PUED) and Facultad de Economía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM). ** Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) Institute of Studies of Mediterranean Societies, Naples, Italy, June 2017 ) Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, June 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
CONTENTS Key concepts: Migration and development Recent trends in international migration Migration panorama in Latin America and the Caribbean Labour markets and migration Economic and social impact of remittances Public policy considerations Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
MAXIMIZING THE POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT International migration in the development context relates both to people who have chosen to move of their own accord, and forced migrants who can ultimately end up contributing to the development of both their country of resettlement and possibly their country of origin specially if it is ever safe to return. At international level it is important to harness the economic and social potential of migration for the benefit of both societies and migrants in order to contribute to sustainable development and poverty reduction. Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
THE CHALLENGES OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT Development implies change and structural transformation; processes that today depend more and more on reductions in inequalities. Development was conceived in the traditional literature as purely growth objectives with little attention being paid to the very diverse beneficiaries of the growth, its inclusions and exclusions, as well an its costs, environmental or others. Sustainable development theory needs to consider: Quality of life for individuals and their households, impact of costs and benefits on functional and personal distributions of income and wealth Provision of basic necessities and human rights Economic autonomy, social and environmental security Equality Source: Authors own elaboration based on M. Laura Vázquez Maggio (2017). Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
THEORIES OF MIGRATION: THE “NEW” ECONOMY OF MIGRATION What motivates the decision to (voluntarily) migrate? Groups, family units vs individuals Augment the capacity to generate income Reduce and diversify risks, financial or others including on life itself Work/income opportunities and wage differentials Remittances Source: Authors´ own elaboration based on M. Laura Vázquez Maggio (2017). Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2016
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KEY TOPICS ON MIGRATION & DEVELOPMENT
Income and development gap Macroeconomic conditions Political and security conditions Determinants of international migration System of corridors Corridors to the US Why are migrant corridors important? Characterizing the diaspora in host countries Demographic profile of migrants (Age, Education, Gender, etc.) Emigration from Latin America and the Caribbean: recent trends Migration and investment in business creation Migration and investment in human capital Migration and productive assets Returned migrants Development potential in rural and other areas Impact of international migration on development Source: Authors´ own elaboration. Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
RECENT TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION Globally, there were 244 million international migrants in 2015. Of these, nearly 58% lived in the developed regions, while the developing regions hosted 42% of the world’s total. Between 1990 and 2015, the number of international migrants worldwide rose by over 91 million, or by 60%. Much of this growth occurred between 2000 and 2010, when some 4.9 million migrants were added annually, compared to an average of 2.0 million from 1990 to 2000 and 4.4 million from 2010 to Why? Source: UN DESA, Population Division (2015). Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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RECENT TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
International migrant stock (millions) Average annual change in migrant stock (millions) 1990 2000 2010 2015 World 152.6 172.7 221.7 243.7 2.0 4.9 4.4 3.6 Developed Regions 82.4 103.4 132.6 140.5 2.1 2.9 1.6 2.3 Developing Regions 70.2 69.3 89.2 103.2 -0.1 2.8 1.3 Africa 15.7 14.8 16.8 20.6 0.2 0.8 Asia 48.1 49.3 65.9 75.1 0.1 1.7 1.8 1.1 Europe 49.2 56.3 72.4 0.7 Latin America and the Caribbean 7.2 6.6 8.2 9.2 Northern America 27.6 40.4 51.2 54.5 Oceania 4.7 5.4 7.1 8.1 Source: UN DESA, Population Division (2015). Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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SHARE OF TOTAL MIGRANTS (BY ORIGIN) AND REMITTANCES BY REGION, 2016
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARRIBEAN REPRESENT THE SECOND LARGEST GLOBAL REGIONAL COMPOSITION OF MIGRANTS AND REMITTANCES, 2016 SHARE OF TOTAL MIGRANTS (BY ORIGIN) AND REMITTANCES BY REGION, 2016 Según cifras del Banco Mundial (2015), este año 2016 se espera que los migrantes internacionales superen los 250 millones, un nivel sin precedentes. Además, los países en desarrollo son un imán cada vez más poderoso que atrae a personas de otras partes del mundo en desarrollo. Como demostración de su repercusión económica, este año los migrantes internacionales enviarán alrededor de USD 600 000 millones a sus familias en los países de origen. Con +12 millones de migrantes en 2013, el corredor de migración más importante del mundo es el de México-Estados Unidos. Source: IFAD(2017). Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Ciudad de México, 2016
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
MIGRATION TRENDS IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN International migration has played an essential role in the demographic history of Latin America and the Caribbean. Around 2010, immigrants represented at least 1.3% of the total population of the region, whereas emigrants made up 4.8% of the population, for a total of 7.6 million and 28.5 million migrants, respectively. In absolute terms, Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Haiti and Peru have the largest numbers of emigrants. In relative terms, English-speaking countries like Guyana, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago and Saint Lucia have significant emigration, as do El Salvador, Cuba, Paraguay, Nicaragua and Mexico. The countries that have received the largest numbers of immigrants are Argentina, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil, the Dominican Republic and Costa Rica. Source: UN DESA, Population Division (2015). Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
DESPITE A SLOWDOWN IN RECENT YEARS, THE MIGRANT CORRIDOR FROM LAC TO NORTH AMERICA REMAINS THE THIRD MOST IMPORTANT GLOBALLY ANNUAL CHANGE IN THE NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS ALONG THE SIX LARGEST REGIONAL MIGRANT CORRIDORS, The corridor from Latin America and the Caribbean to Northern America was the third largest in 2015, with nearly 25 million international migrants. Source: UN DESA, Population Division (2015). Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
MEXICO REMAINS THE LARGEST MIGRANT SENDING COUNTRY, AND 10.7% IN RELATION TO ITS TOTAL POPULATION Source: Comisión Económica para América Latina y El Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de las estadísticas provenientes de la División de Población de las Naciones Unidas. Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
MEXICAN MIGRATION TO THE UNITED STATES HAS NEARLY TRIPLED IN THE LAST 2 DECADES But in recent years, the flow in net terms is negative Source: M. Laura Vázquez Maggio (2017). Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
LABOUR MARKET (REAL OR IMAGINED?) OPPORTUNIES: KEY IMPULSE FOR MIGRATION Labour migration reflects a complex system of corridors that is in constant flux in response to economic and labour-market fluctuations, migration mechanisms, demographics and environmental and other factors related to political and social instability, as well as changes in migration governance systems (ILO, 2016). Local reactions to immigrants depends on labour market and political conditions Changes in these factors are expressed in the constant redesign of routes, intermediation and recruitment methods, transport systems and even people smuggling. Several of these corridors pass through countries in transit to the final migration destination, with important implications for development in host and transit countries. In addition to permanent labour migration, there is temporary migration (for a limited number of years, often involving individuals without family), seasonal migration (e.g. to harvest a crop) and return migration. Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
INTERNATIONAL LABOUR MARKETS AND SKILLED/UNSKILLED MIGRATION Networks with family and friends become an explanatory factor that can not be underestimated when explaining current migration. With rural migration and the insufficient creation of urban jobs, a large part of the population is forced to join the informal economy, a key factor in creating low productivity, low incomes and poverty. Another part, migrates. Factors to be considered on both sides of the flow are: labour markets, Informal economy, illicit activities, institutional framework. Historically, the development process has been associated with rural-urban migration. This migration itself is not the current problem, but rather the speed and magnitude of flows. In LAC, the lack of dynamism of industrial activity and investment boost informality, low productivity and migration. The urban sector can not absorb labour quickly. Source: M. Laura Vázquez Maggio (2017). Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
GLOBAL TRENDS IN REMITTANCES Between 2015 y 2030 an estimated 6.5 trillion USD will be sent to low-and middle-income countries. Most of these resources will be used by remittance receiving families to reach their own goals: Increased income Better health, education and housing Reduced inequality Regular remittances help to lift households above the poverty line. But may have some negative impacts, social and economic. Women now comprise about half of all remittance senders (100 million women). To a certain extent this can help to advance (or refects?) gender equality and economic empowerment for women through financial Independence and better employment opportunities. Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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GROWTH IN REMITTANCES BY REGION, 2007 -2016
GLOBAL TRENDS IN REMITTANCES Potential impact of migrant remittances on savings and investments can only be fully reached in partnership with coherent public policies and priorities and linked with public/private-sector initiatives. There is a need to leverage the linkages between remittances and financial inclusion to promote development. GROWTH IN REMITTANCES BY REGION, Source: IFAD (2017) based on World Bank data. Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
REMITTANCE FLOWS IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Source: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de información proporcionada por el Banco Mundial. Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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THE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OF REMITTANCES IN LAC
Exchange, strategic motives and investment Types of remittances Diaspora bonds Formal and pseudo formal transmission channels DETERMINANTS AND AMOUNTS OF REMITTANCES Remittances, savings and investment Multiplier effects across economic sectors Gender composition Infrastructure needs Household characteristics of remittance receivers REMITTANCES AND LOCAL DEVELOPMENT Options to scale up remittances Reduce the cost of remittances Encourage diaspora investment Coordination on human rights policies on all sides PUBLIC POLITICS Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS OF REMITTANCES Remittances are exchange processes between the two sides of the border, which are not necessarily strictly monetary but also social and cultural, and help shape the conditions of the migrant and her families’ lives. (See, Rivas & Gonzálvez, 2011) Social remittances are intangible benefits in the long term, being transfers of knowledge and skills whose results will be seen over time. Exchanges of social remittances occur both from the experience of the migrant at destination, and from that of their families of origin. Source: M. Laura Vázquez Maggio (2017). Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
THE DEVELOPMENT TRIANGLE OF MIGRATION, REMITTANCES AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE Migration Structural Change Remmitances SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Source: Authors’ own elaboration. Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
PUBLIC POLICIES TO PROMOTE FULL AND PRODUCTIVE EMPLOYMENT AND DECENT WORK FOR MIGRANTS Societies should tackle the complex issue of migration from various areas of public policy, involving and coordinating not only migration and labour policies but also social, education, health, security, social protection, development, trade and other policies geared towards social inclusion and protection of human rights. Programmes may also be needed to support segments of the native population whose employment prospects or conditions are adversely affected by immigration. Countries must agree on coordination mechanisms in order to successfully handle all key aspects related to the migration of people. These policies are interrelated and have both direct and indirect effects on the labour market, and the social, economic and even political lives of all countries involved. Addresses the root causes of migration by providing interventions in areas vulnerable to high rates of economically motivated migration. In regions that have been recently affected by armed conflict, provide return-friendly environments for displaced persons, to create employment through income-generating activities and to harness the resources of the diaspora for socio-economic development. Recognizing that nearly half of the world’s migrants are now women, it is critical to take into account the opportunities and challenges that this presents for migration and development activities, and presents a gender-specific focus for all remittance projects. Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
TO FULFILL THAT POTENTIAL A WHOLE GAMUT OF POLICIES IS NEEDED AND STRONG POLITICAL WILL Key stakeholders in migration and development programming include: Potential and returning migrants and their families, Diaspora communities, Local, regional, and national governments, and Private sector actors A useful tool containing policy guidelines is the ILO Multilateral Framework on Labour Migration: Non-binding principles and guidelines for a rights-based approach to labour migration (ILO, 2007). This document offers practical guidelines and measures to enable all parties to maximize the contribution of labour migrations by addressing the main issues faced by those who make policy on migration at the national, regional and international levels. Based on migration experiences around the world, the framework presents a wide range of principles, guidelines and best practices on policy related to migrant workers, such as decent work, management of migration, protection of migrant workers and promotion of linkages between migration and development. Source: Economic Commission for Latin American (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO) 2017. Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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PERSPECTIVES ON MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Rolando Cordera Campos *, Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid* and Stefanie Garry** *Programa Universitario de Estudios del Desarrollo (PUED) and Facultad de Economía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM). ** Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) Institute of Studies of Mediterranean Societies, Naples, Italy, June 2017 ) Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, June 2017
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Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
MIGRATION, DEVELOPMENT AND THE SDGS Dr. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid Naples, 2017
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