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Jack Shen Moby Xu 4/26/2016.

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Presentation on theme: "Jack Shen Moby Xu 4/26/2016."— Presentation transcript:

1 Jack Shen Moby Xu 4/26/2016

2 Current Holdings Ticker: ABBV (NYSE)
Received 400 shares upon spin-off on 1/2/2013 200 $27.08 100 $27.53 100 $34.22 Adjusted Current Price: $60.97 Gain (loss):128.27% 16% of portfolio (equity only)

3 Company Overview Corporate Headquarters North Chicago, Illinois, USA
Business Snapshot Specialty-focused, research-based biopharmaceutical company Employees More than 28,000 worldwide Geographic Coverage Products are sold in more than 170 countries

4 Timeline 2011 October 19th Abbott announced the plan to separate into two publicly traded companies 2013 January 2nd Officially listed on the NYSE 2015 May 26th Completed the acquisition of Pharmacyclics 2016 April Revealed positive data on HCV therapy and leukemia treatment

5 Management RICHARD A. GONZALEZ MICHAEL E. SEVERINO, M.D.
Chairman of the Board and CEO Mr. Gonzalez was a 30-year Abbott veteran. He served as Executive Vice President, Pharmaceutical Products Group. MICHAEL E. SEVERINO, M.D.  Executive Vice President, Research & Development and CSO  He previously served as Senior Vice President, Global Development and Corporate Chief Medical Officer at Amgen Inc. He joined AbbVie in 2014. WILLIAM J. CHASE Executive Vice President, CFO Prior to AbbVie's separation from Abbott, Mr. Chase served as Vice President, Licensing and Acquisitions. Mr. Chase joined Abbott in 1989 Source: abbvie.com

6 Business Overview Focus on product development:
“AbbVie develops and markets advanced therapies that address some of the world's most complex and serious diseases.” chronic autoimmune diseases human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) Parkinson's disease complications associated with chronic diseases other health conditions Focus on product development: Global R&D collaboration and licensing agreement Independent R&D Acquired in-process R&D Source: abbvie.com, Abbvie Inc. FY K

7 Financial Results FY 2015: Total Net revenue: $22859 million
Total Net Income: $5,144 million Source: Abbvie Inc. FY K

8 Industry Overview Name Brand Pharmaceutical “Big Pharma”
Mature industry Heavily regulated R&D intense Risky Intense competition Source: IBIS World

9 Macro Driver Source: CMS, Census Bureau, IBIS World

10 Patent-protected drugs; Threat of R&D breakthrough
Porter’s Five Forces Supplier Bargaining Power Moderate Self-sufficient; Lots of suppliers Threat of Substitutes Low-Moderate Patent-protected drugs; Threat of R&D breakthrough New Entrants Low Regulation; Finance; Tech Threat of Rivalry High Intense competition; Risky business Buyer Lack alternatives; Necessity Pharmaceutical Industry

11 SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
Large cash reserve; R&D capability; Established brand; Expertise & experience Weaknesses HUMIRA; Risky R&D process Opportunities Economic recovery; International mkt; Aging & growing population Threats Mkt fluctuation; Competition; Regulation; IP theft

12 Financial Analysis Source: Abbvie Inc. FY 2015& K

13 Financial Analysis Source: Abbvie Inc. FY 2015& K

14 Technical Analysis Source: Yahoo Finance

15 Market Capitalization Latest
Comparable Analysis Company Name Market Capitalization Latest LTM Total Revenue LTM Gross Margin % LTM EBITDA Margin % LTM EBIT Margin % LTM Net Income Margin % Baxalta Incorporated (NYSE:BXLT) 28,266.0 6,148 81% 49% 39.8% 32.03% Biogen Inc. (NasdaqGS:BIIB) 61,925.9 10,936 88% 71% 68.0% 55.48% Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) 82,131.4 19,959 89% 54% 48.3% 33.79% Amgen Inc. (NasdaqGS:AMGN) 122,397.8 21,662 38% 28.1% 14.25% Gilead Sciences Inc. (NasdaqGS:GILD) 138,078.6 32,639 76% 26% 18.8% 12.07% Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE:MRK) 157,153.4 39,498 63% 37% 20.8% 11.25% Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) 206,003.8 48,851 62% 34% 30.1% 15.55% AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV) 99,361.3 22,859 43% 38.9% 22.50% High Low Mean 113,708.1 25,670 77% 44% 36.3% 24.92% Median Source: CapitalIQ

16 Comparable Analysis

17 Financial Projections

18 Discount Rate

19 DCF Analysis

20 Pros & Cons Pros Cons Overpriced according to DCF valuation
Favorable results Optimistic analysis & reports Potential share repurchase shows confidence Growing # of collaboration and licensing agreement Cons Overpriced according to DCF valuation “New company” HUMIRA “ticking time bomb” Risky pipeline Complicated business

21 Hold Recommendation DCF Current Comparable Valuation Valuation Price
$43.31 Current Price $60.97 Comparable Valuation $70-$80 Hold

22 Q&A


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