1. Good news, driverless vehicles biggest ever traffic safety improvement; Bad news, 30 million deaths by 2050
Leonard Evans
President, Science Serving Society
President-Emeritus, International Traffic Medicine Association (ITMA)
Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, USA

2. This not research findings
This not research findings – but rather some judgmental observations about the future of traffic safety
This not research findings
As with all predictions about the future, there is pretty good chance they are wrong 2

3. This presentation about neither
This presentation about neither – but rather some judgmental observations about the future of traffic safety
This presentation about neither
As with all predictions about the future, there is pretty good chance they are wrong 3

4. This presentation about neither
This presentation about neither – but rather some judgmental observations about the future of traffic safety
This presentation about neither
As with all predictions about the future, there is pretty good chance they are wrong 4

5. Elevator history

6. But eventually the driverless elevator became universally accepted

7. Driverless trains now widely acccepted

8. Airline safety:
 Crashes very rare
 Nearly all preventable if pilot replaced by automatic system
 But, passengers reluctant to board a driverless aircraft

9. Road traffic
 About 200 million crashes occur annually on world’s roads
 These kill over a million road users
 Victims mainly healthy young males 9

10. Road traffic
 About 200 million crashes occur annually on world’s roads
 These kill over a million road users
 Victims mainly healthy young males – but include large numbers of babies, infants, children, old people, etc. 10

11. A clear picture has resulted
Science has been applied for over 80 years to better understand traffic crashes
A clear picture has resulted 11

12. UK and US large scale studies performed in 1970s12

13. UK and US large scale studies performed in 1970s4 6 27 24 3 1
road
user
environment
vehicle 2 57 65 28 / 34 95 94 8 12 US UK
UK and US large scale studies performed in 1970s 13

14. UK and US large scale studies performed in 1970s4 6 27 24 3 1
road
user
environment
vehicle 2 57 65 28 / 34 95 94 8 12 US UK
UK and US large scale studies performed in 1970s 14

15. 4 6 27 24 3 1 road user environment vehicle 2 57 65 28 / 34 95 94 8 12UK 15

16. 4 6 27 24 3 1 road user environment vehicle 2 57 65 28 / 34 95 94 8 12UK 16

17. 4 6 27 24 3 1 road user environment vehicle 2 57 65 28 / 34 95 94 8 12UK 2 17

18. US study supported by NHTSA4 6 27 24 3 1
road
user
environment
vehicle 2 57 65 28 / 34 95 94 8 12 US UK 2
US study supported by NHTSA 18

19. USA has obsessively focused on vehicles
USA priorities are not random - they are almost perfectly opposite to where benefits are greatest
USA has obsessively focused on vehicles
And continues to focus narrowly on vehicles and other technological factors
I suggested, in AJPH, that the:
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
would be better named the
National Highway Vehicle Safety Administration 19

20. Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:
 Vehicle factors are important 20 20

21. Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:
 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors 21 21

22. Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:
 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors
 Roadway factors are important 22 22

23. Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:
 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors
 Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors 23 23

24. Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:
 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors
 Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors
 Driver performance factors are importantctors 24 24

25. Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:
 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors
 Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors
 Driver performance factors are important, but less important than driver behavior factorsfactors 25 25

26. Consequence of US focus on vehicles provides a lesson for the world
 From 1972 to 2015 US traffic fatalities declined by 35.7 %
 Every one of the other 25 countries in an international data base had far larger declines (average decline 75.0%)
 9 countries had declines >80% 26

27. US is extreme outlier having far worse safety than any of the 25 other countries

28.  Driver behavior is at heart of traffic crash problem
Conclusions
 Driver behavior is at heart of traffic crash problem
 The only way to dramatically reduce crash risk is to remove drivers 28

29. autonomous vehicles

30. Big difference – human vs autonomous
 Each generation of humans has much in common with previous generations
 Humanity doesn’t learn much from experience
 Computer-based systems keep improving
 So crash risk for autonomous vehicle can keep declining, generating more dramatic safety improvements than ever 30

31. Sensible traffic-safety law sensibly enforced
Good news
 Technology will produce ground vehicles with crash experience approaching that of aircraft
Bad news
 On the world’s roads there are more than a billion vehicles driven by humans
 Even under the most optimistic assumptions, it will take many decades to replace most of them with new technology
 Main safety research should focus on policies that address driver behavior
 For many decades to come the most effective way to reduce harm in traffic remains
Sensible traffic-safety law sensibly enforced 31