1. Dagstuhl Workshop on Fresh Approaches for Business Process Modeling How “Cognitive Computing” can transform BP’s (and how we model them) Rick Hull IBM Research 9 May 2016

2. Fundamental characteristics and “centricities”
Workforce Pyramid
Design & Strategy Support
Judgement- Intensive Processes
Transaction- Intensive Processes
Characteristics
Centricity
Coordination/Collaboration
Decisions on Knowledge
Very ad hoc, intuitive
Knowledge-centric
Long-running
Many kinds of activities
Best practices hidden
Spreadsheets
Goals-centric
Care & feeding of ERP
Variation, Evolution
Spreadsheets
Text-based process descriptions
Data-centric
However, all three aspects are relevant to all three levels

3. What is building on/coming after Data Science?
“Cognitive Computing” – combining Big Data Analytics with Text/Image Processing, Learning, …
A cognitive system has the following capabilities
Monitor/Alert: Discovers patterns in data even if they are weak signals (“whispers”)
Analyze: Assesses relative value of alternative paths, using statistical evaluations
Decide/act: Advises on the optimal action to take
Adapts and learns from training and experiences
Important Cognitive System attributes
Ability to incorporate relevant contextual information, including new data
Deep natural language analysis, for info ingestion and human interaction
Learning in real time as data arrives
Can identify similar/related past experiences and learn from them
Explain/justify recommendations to humans
IPSoft’s
Amelia
“The world’s first neural automation system for the enterprise”
Tata Consultancy

4. Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing”
Workforce Pyramid
Design & Strategy Support
Judgement- Intensive Processes
Transaction- Intensive Processes
Rapid exploration/ingestion of broad corpora of relevant (unstructured) information
Decision-making based on learned knowledge
Goals-based dynamic planning
(Enable guided collaboration of numerous autonomous agents)
Govt Reg’s Corp. Policies
“Read” regulations and policies … … and map into processes
Define Processes
Capture “Digital Exhaust” … … and learn processes
Care & Feeding of ERP System
Move from Spreadsheets to Case Mgmt and Business Rules … … so that humans can examine and tune auto-learned process
ERP System

6. Three (approximate) Levels of Business Operations & Processes
Examples
Workforce Pyramid
Design & Strategy Support
Judgement- Intensive Processes
Transaction- Intensive Processes
Build vs. Buy decisions
Merger & Acquisition decisions
Launch of a new kind of product
Large IBM deals that transform a company
Fraud investigations in a Bank
Execution of Data Center Outsourcing deals
Back-office processing (e.g., payroll, F&A, …)
Supply Chain Management
Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), e.g., IBM GPS

7. Characteristics of the different levels
Workforce Pyramid
Design & Strategy Support
Judgement- Intensive Processes
Transaction- Intensive Processes
Characteristics
Characteristics
Coordination/Collaboration
Decisions on Knowledge
Very ad hoc, intuitive
Long-running
Many kinds of activities
Best practices hidden
Spreadsheets
Care & feeding of ERP
Variation, Evolution
Spreadsheets
Text-based process descriptions

8. Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing”
Workforce Pyramid
Design & Strategy Support
Judgement- Intensive Processes
Transaction- Intensive Processes
Rapid exploration/ingestion of broad corpora of relevant (unstructured) information
Decision-making based on learned knowledge
Goals-based dynamic planning
(Enable guided collaboration of numerous autonomous agents)
Govt Reg’s Corp. Policies
“Read” regulations and policies … … and map into processes
Define Processes
Capture “Digital Exhaust” … … and learn processes
Care & Feeding of ERP System
Move from Spreadsheets to Case Mgmt and Business Rules … … so that humans can examine and tune auto-learned process
ERP System

9. Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing”
Cognitive Computing is ….
Characteristics
Centricity
Workforce Pyramid
Design & Strategy Support
Judgement- Intensive Processes
Transaction- Intensive Processes
Coordination/Collaboration
Decisions on Knowledge
Very ad hoc, intuitive
Knowledge-centric
Long-running
Many kinds of activities
Best practices hidden
Spreadsheets
Goals-centric
Care & feeding of ERP
Variation, Evolution
Spreadsheets
Text-based process descriptions
Data-centric

10. Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing”
Cognitive Computing is ….
Workforce Pyramid
Design & Strategy Support
Judgement- Intensive Processes
Transaction- Intensive Processes

11. Challenges of the different levels
Workforce Pyramid
Design & Strategy Support
Judgement- Intensive Processes
Transaction- Intensive Processes
Characteristics
Coordinating open-ended, highly collaborative processes
Both humans and “cognitive agents”
Decisions made over time, based on extensive acquisition of knowledge
Some best practices but lots of intuition guiding activity
Long-running activity (weeks to months to years)
Many kinds of activity that MAY be relevant
Best practices & patterns available, but buried
Mainly based on ERP systems, but … … many manual processes surrounding them
Lots of variation, evolution over time
In many companies – ad hoc, spreadsheet based

12. Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing”
Workforce Pyramid
Design & Strategy Support
Judgement- Intensive Processes
Transaction- Intensive Processes
Characteristics
Challenge Problems
Coordination/Collaboration
Decisions on Knowledge
Very ad hoc, intuitive
Long-running
Many kinds of activities
Best practices hidden
Spreadsheets
Care & feeding of ERP
Variation, Evolution
Spreadsheets
Text-based process descriptions

13. Automating the Pipeline from Knowledge Harvesting to Executable Logic in an Agile, Incremental Fashion
Current Mode of Operation
Near-term focus of “Ops Accelerator”
Long-term focus of “Ops Accelerator”
Client policies,
Govt. regulations
Client policies,
Govt. regulations
Client policies,
Govt. regulations +
Automatic
Knowledge
Harvesting
Coarse-grained
English process descriptions
Coarse-grained
English process descriptions
Coarse-grained
English process descriptions
“Crowd Sourcing” +
Desktop Procedures
Executable Logic
Executable Logic
SAP code
SAP code
SAP code
Coordination by hand:
Monthly runs
Ancillary processes (new hire, …)
Coordination by machine:
Monthly runs
Ancillary processes (new hire, …)
Coordination by machine:
Monthly runs
Ancillary processes (new hire, …)

17. Backup

18. Power of a Good Model << animated slide >>
Good models go beyond description – they support action
Selecting the right model for the job matters
Example: “Game of 15”
Winner: First one to reach exactly 15 with any 3 chips 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9
First model – A is and B is
– what is B’s move?
Second model –
– B’s move is 6!