1. Professor Richard Tuckett (Chemistry, University of Birmingham)
The Climate Argument:  are we doomed and do we panic, or what can we do?
(West Midlands Chemistry Teachers Centre, Birmingham, )
Professor Richard Tuckett (Chemistry, University of Birmingham)
 Is the correlation between CO2 concentration and Tearth ‘proven’?
 What is the greenhouse effect? Does it cause global warming?
 What are the physical properties of a greenhouse gas that
determines its effectiveness as a compound that causes climate
change and global warming?
 What can we do: individually, nationally, internationally?

2. Bloodwise Charity Ride
September 2014
105 miles, £6600 raised

3. Education in Chemistry (RSC) (2008) 45, 17-21.

4. 1st edition (August 2009)
The role of atmospheric gases in global warming
ISBN :
2nd edition (November 2015)
The causes of enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere : possible solutions
ISBN :
4000-word resume (Essay for Paris) :
DOI : /RG

5. Does red correlate with blue, or vice-versa?

6. The average temperature of the earth and the concentration level of CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere during the ‘recent’ history of the last 130 years. See Stoft A rise of 1 F is equivalent to 0.56 oC. The article suggests that it is the temperature rise that is causing the increase in CO2 concentration, not the other way round.

7. Development of Antarctic Ozone Hole, 1979-1997

9. Ludovico Einaudi + Greenpeace ‘Elegy for the Arctic’

10. Energy balance : UV + Visiblein (sun) = IRout (earth)
Tearth should be 256 K (-17 oC)
Absorption of IR
radiation emitted by the
earth by gases in the
troposphere.
Radiation (ca. 38%) is trapped, like a greenhouse. Some reflected back to earth.
Leads to an increase in
temperature of ca. 34 K : 30 K is due to H2O, 3 K due to CO2, 1 K to CH4, N2O, O3. These are the ‘primary’ GH gases, all good news. H2O the most important.
Earth’s atmosphere is
78% N2, 21% O2 ;
neither absorb IR radiation.
Tearth =
Fs solar flux, s Stefan’s Constant, A Earth’s albedo

11. The increase in GH concentrations since c
The increase in GH concentrations since c causes the ‘secondary’ GH effect …….
Molecule Mole Fraction ppmv (2015) ppmv (1750) % increase
N or 78 %
O or 21 %
H2O (100% humidity, 298 K)
H2O (50% humidity, 298 K)
Ar or 1 %
CO x 10-4 or %
Ne 1.8 x 10-5 or %
CH x 10-6 or %
N2O 3.2 x 10-7 or %
O3 (troposphere) 3.4 x 10-8 or %
All CFCs 8.7 x or 8.7 x 10-8 % 
All HCFCs 1.9 x or 1.9 x 10-8 % 
All PFCs 8.3 x or 8.3 x 10-9 % 
All HFCs 6.1 x or 6.1 x 10-9 % 

12. Properties of greenhouse gases
(absorption of infra-red radiation into vibrational modes of the gas)
Vibration must change the dipole moment of the molecule, dm / dq ≠ 0.
N2 and O2 (99% of atmosphere) play no role. Atmosphere is very ‘fragile’.
 Molecule must absorb in the range 5-25 mm. Coincidentally, CO2 absorbs at 15 mm ; the spectroscopic properties of CO2 are being unkind to nature.
 Long lifetime in the earth’s atmosphere ; no reaction with OH and O*(1D), or photodissociation in troposphere ( nm) or stratosphere ( nm).
IR spectroscopy, absolute absorption coefficients
Reaction kinetics of greenhouse gas with OH and O*(1D)
Photodissociation of greenhouse gas with UV / visible radiation ( nm)
Global Warming Potential (GWP)
A molecule with a large GWP is one with strong IR absorption, long
lifetimes, and concentrations rising rapidly due to man’s activity
CO2 = 1, CH4 = 28, CF2Cl2 = 10200, SF6 = CF3SF5 = 17400

13. n2 mode of CO2
2.0 x 1013 vibrations per second (or 50 fs per vibn)
667 cm-1 or 15.0 mm
Infra-red active : causes all the problems
O C O

14. 3.3 x 1013 vibrations per second 1095 cm-1, 9.1 mm
C-S stretching mode in trifluoromethyl sulfur pentafluoride, F3C-SF5
3.3 x 1013 vibrations per second
1095 cm-1, 9.1 mm

15. 64 17 Greenhouse Gas (IPCC 2013 data) 11 6 [9] 0.14 0.003 CO2 O3 CH4
N2O
CF2Cl2
[all CFCs]
SF6
SF5CF3
Concentration (2015)
/ ppmv
400
0.036
1.80
0.32
0.0005
[0.0009]
7.3x10-6
1.2 x 10-7
DConcentration
( ) / ppmv
121
0.011
1.08
0.05
Radiative efficiency, ao
/ W m-2 ppbv-1
1.4 × 10-5
3.3 × 10-2
4.6 × 10-4
3.4 × 10-3
[ ]
0.57
0.59
(world record)
Radiative forcing
/ W m-2 (Total = 2.83)
1.82
ca. 0.35
0.48
0.17
[0.27]
4.1×10-3
9.4 × 10-5
Contribution from long-lived GH gases to overall secondary greenhouse effect / % 64 11 17 6
[9]
0.14
0.003
Lifetime, t / years ca
ca. days
- weeks 12
100
[ ]
3200
800
Global Warming Potential
(100-year projection) 1 - 28
265
10200
[ ]
23500
17400

16. Targets for carbon reduction : (pre-Paris, December 2015)
UK : Reduce GH gas emissions to less than 20% of 1990 levels
by the year (AND reduce CO2 emissions to less than
74% of 1990 levels by the year 2020.)
EU : Reduce CO2 emissions to less than 60% of 1990 levels
by the year Produce at least 27% of energy from
renewable sources by 2030.
Enshrined in law (UK) and EU protocols, but what happens if ....
US : Less strict reduction targets, Obama is committed,
but will (President) Trump do in 2017?
China : Vague commitment that GH emissions will slow down after 2025.
India : Nothing
Africa : Nothing

17. What do these numbers mean to you and me?
David MacKay : Sustainable Energy – without the hot air (2009) UIT Cambridge
(free from the internet)
Units are metric tonnes of CO2 emitted per person per year. (1 tonne = 1000 kg.)
Estimate how little CO2 we can emit if T is limited to 2 oC by the year 2100.
(Post Paris: the target is now 1.5 oC, and we are already up by c. 1.0 oC)
Population / billion (2015) (2100)
Planet Earth
China
India
EU average
UK average
USA average

18. What we as individuals can do
MacKay again. Now different units of kWh energy usage per person per day
In 2009, the average person in the UK used 125 of these units. The Climate Act 2008 says we have to reduce this to c. 15 by AD He suggests :
Approx saving
What we as individuals can do
Turn down thermostats and wear more clothes 20
Modify our means of short-distance transport 20
Become vegetarian
Change all lights to LED
Keep old gadgets such as computers 4
Stop flying (!)
What we as individuals have less control over
Avoid packaging and buying clutter 20

19. What are we going to do? It is everyone’s problem (despite the UK only contributing 2% of global emissions)
Concentrate more on the ‘demand’, rather than the ‘supply’ of carbon

20. What would you do if you were the President Trump of the UK ?
What laws would you pass?

21. Six reasons for cautious optimism :
 Realisation that ‘guilt’ about the past will get us nowhere
 Realisation that carbon trading is immoral, and doomed to fail
 The climate sceptics have disappeared off the national media
channels ; alas, not true yet in the US and Mr (President) Trump
 Science and politics can work together : stratospheric ozone
problem will be ‘solved’ by c
 History repeatedly show us that out of adversity can come
positive solutions
 Paris UN COP21 (December 2015) exceeded most dreams,
although everyone understands that the hard work now starts.
Policies cannot apply to the young, old, disabled or infirm.

22. Concentrate first on us in the UK. Break problem down …….
(1) What would be easy to implement? If I were Prime Minister
Reduce the minimum working temperature from c. 17 oC to 15 oC
 Reform Sunday trading laws
 Price domestic air travel in UK out of the market
 with Huge expansion of train travel within the UK
 with Huge expansion of safe cycling routes in the UK
Reform 1988 Education Act so that everyone attends their local school
 Provide free double glazing and roof insulation to all domestic houses
Reform Health & Safety (1974) legislation : is packaging on everything
needed? Has the H&S ‘culture’ become completely out of control?

23. The Catholic Church must be brought on board
(2) What would be moderately difficult to implement ? But still possible if we are serious
Carbon tax via credit cards : ‘the polluter pays’ (Canada is doing this)
Complete re-think on food policy : what we eat, where it comes from
Complete re-think on clothing policy
Phase out carbon trading throughout the EU
(3) What would be incredibly difficult to implement ? would any Government stay in power a month if even suggested?
Population policy: limit access to Welfare State for n > x
But what about world population? Is it ‘important’?
3.3 billion in 1964, 7.3 billion in 2014, c billion in 2100
Hugely enhanced role for the United Nations
The Catholic Church must be brought on board