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Towards unprecedented changes in climate
Helge Drange
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What we know
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CO2 in air (from Mauna Loa, Hawaii)
CO2 (parts per million) CO2 in air (from Mauna Loa, Hawaii) Ubåtkryssing av Arktis + Fidel Castro
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2008
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2009
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2010
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2011
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1911
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Distribution of observed summer temperature 1960-2011
(1σ ~ 1/3; 2σ ~ 1/20; 3σ ~ 1/400; 4σ ~ 1/16000) 1/400 1/16.000 Hansen et al. (2012)
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Earth´s climate is changing
Main reason is human emissions of greenhouse gasses
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uncertainty ≠ no certainty
What we are heading at uncertainty ≠ no certainty
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Change in global temperature, 15 models
(relative to )
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Change in global temperature, 15 models
(relative to ) +2 °C For a global, mean warming of ~2 degrees C, which we can expect sometime during second half of the 21st century, Earth's climate will be comparable to the climate ~3.2 mill years ago Global emission top in 2040, 650 ppm CO2-eq in 2100
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Projected summers in 2080-2100 warmer than the warmest summer during 1900-2006 (SRES A1B)
Percent (%) Battisti og Naylor (2009)
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Drought index based on 22 climate models
(PDSI; SRES A1B) Extreme drought Incr soil moisture Severe drought Dai, Clim. Change (2010)
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Sea level +0.5 to 1 m by 2100
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Brooklyn NY 29 Oct 2012 AP Photo/Ana Andjelic
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Climate is a symptom of a larger problem;
We approach a state of planetary emergency – never experienced by modern man – unknown consequences for man and ecosystems – (historically) caused by a fraction of the world’s population – influencing most of the world’s population, particularly developing nations To foster leadership, Earth calls for – involvement – engagement – mobilisation – information – alliance building – education – awareness – knowledge transfer Climate is a symptom of a larger problem; unsustainability Second last slide? Earthrise, 24 Dec 1968 (credit: NASA)
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(2) Heat stored in the ocean
Long-term human-induced changes in climate for two reasons About 20 percent of today's CO2-emissions will remain in the atmosphere for 1000 years or more (2) Heat stored in the ocean
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School-book map
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Population
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Powerty
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CO2-emissons from the US transport sector corresponds to 1.7 times
CO2-emissions CO2-emissons from the US transport sector corresponds to 1.7 times Africa’s total CO2-emissons from coal, oil and gas
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