1. Towards unprecedented changes in climate
Helge Drange

2. What we know

3. CO2 in air (from Mauna Loa, Hawaii)
CO2 (parts per million)
CO2 in air (from Mauna Loa, Hawaii)
Ubåtkryssing av Arktis + Fidel Castro

5. 2008

6. 2009

7. 2010

8. 2011

9. 1911

10. Distribution of observed summer temperature 1960-2011
(1σ ~ 1/3; 2σ ~ 1/20; 3σ ~ 1/400; 4σ ~ 1/16000)
1/400
1/16.000
Hansen et al. (2012)

11. Earth´s climate is changing
Main reason is
human emissions of
greenhouse gasses

12. uncertainty ≠ no certainty
What we are
heading at
uncertainty ≠ no certainty

13. Change in global temperature, 15 models
(relative to )

14. Change in global temperature, 15 models
(relative to )
+2 °C
For a global, mean warming of ~2 degrees C, which we can expect sometime during second half of the 21st century, Earth's climate will be comparable to the climate ~3.2 mill years ago
Global emission top in 2040, 650 ppm CO2-eq in 2100

15. Projected summers in 2080-2100 warmer than the warmest summer during 1900-2006 (SRES A1B)
Percent (%)
Battisti og Naylor (2009)

16. Drought index based on 22 climate models
(PDSI; SRES A1B)
Extreme drought
Incr soil moisture
Severe
drought
Dai, Clim. Change (2010)

17. Sea level
+0.5 to 1 m by 2100

18. Brooklyn NY
29 Oct 2012
AP Photo/Ana Andjelic

19. Climate is a symptom of a larger problem;
We approach a state of planetary emergency
– never experienced by modern man
– unknown consequences for man and ecosystems
– (historically) caused by a fraction of the world’s population
– influencing most of the world’s population, particularly
developing nations
To foster leadership, Earth calls for
– involvement
– engagement
– mobilisation
– information
– alliance building
– education
– awareness
– knowledge transfer
Climate is a symptom of a larger problem;
unsustainability
Second last slide?
Earthrise, 24 Dec 1968
(credit: NASA)

21. (2) Heat stored in the ocean
Long-term human-induced changes in climate
for two reasons
About 20 percent
of today's CO2-emissions will remain in the atmosphere for 1000 years or more
(2) Heat stored in the ocean

22. School-book map

23. Population

24. Powerty

25. CO2-emissons from the US transport sector corresponds to 1.7 times
CO2-emissions
CO2-emissons from the US transport sector corresponds to
1.7 times
Africa’s total CO2-emissons from
coal, oil and gas