1. FROM GAPS TO CAPS Risk Management Capability Based on Gaps Identification in the BSR
Identifying capability assessment challenges and opportunities in the BSR
STOCKHOLM
15-16th of November 2016
Polish Team

2. There are objective external circumstances which at present time force politicians and authorities at different levels of administration to make a decision concerning future events knowing that some of them might never happen.
Events caused by Industry :
Generally there are three types of surprises (especially dangerous hazards):
One of a kind: ozone depletion, climate changes.
First of a kind: DDT, pesticides
Worst of a kind: Fukushima
Natural cataclysms :
1. Earthquake, volcanic eruptions
2. Weather
In 2015 there can be observed mass migrations inside some countries. The number of migrants in the world totaled 19,2 mln. ( in USA)

3. Predicting the global threats the following issue can be arisen:
WHAT CHALLENGES CAN BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FROM BSR PROJECTS RESULTS POINT OF VIEW?

4. THE FIRST CHALLENGE How to measure resilience
Having results of :
14.3 Project
“From gaps to caps” project,
a possibility to measure regional (community, county, city) resilience emerges.
This opportunity will allow us to compare the resilience strength of Baltic Sea Region countries and resilience strength of the entire Region.
The resilience can be measured either with respect to local hazards or with respect to global hazard – according to Sendai strategy.
Project “From Gaps to Caps” is a continuation of project 14.3 and should be considered as a necessary step to solve problems related to creation of resilience assessment methodology. Elaborated methodology will allow to compare different resilience among Baltic Region States and optimize regional structure of security.

5. Gathering together results
obtained from both projects, the following procedure is proposed to be conducted:
14.3 Project
“From gaps to caps”
Project EU
Guidelines
BSR Methodology
Resilience
measure

6. “FROM GAPS TO CAPS “ Project
ELEMENT 1
EXPERTS and Stakeholders selection
PLANNNG
Guidelines Description
Description of
Protected values
GENERAL
EVENT
ELEMENT 2
BSR activities of el. 1 EU
GUIDELINES
Hazards
Catalogue
Hazards Identification
BSR activities of el. 2
ELEMENT 3
likelihood
Consequences
BSR activities
of el. 3
SCENARIO
All these elements and steps are common for risk assessment (Project 14.3) and risk management capability (From Gaps to Caps project).
TASK C

7. TASK C TASK D PROJECT 14.3 ELEMENT 4
INFLUENCE ON VITAL SOCIETAL FUNCTIONS
BSR activities of el. 4
BSR activities
of el. 5
prioritization
ELEMENT 6
ELEMENT 5
CONSEQUENCES
VULNERABILITIES & CAPABILITIES
BSR activities of el. 6
TASK D
Exercises & Emergencies
Risk assessment & its prioritization
LEDAERSHIP
COOPERATION
COMMUNICATION
RESOURCES
KNOWLEDGE
TASK C
PROJECT
14.3

8. Gaps identification SCORING THE RISK LIDERSHIP COOPERATION
COMMUNICATION
RESOURCES
KNOWLEDGE
Risk assessment & its prioritization
Gaps identification
scoring – capability indicators
(extent of success)
0% - no capabilities at all
……..
10% - no gaps at all
SCORING THE RISK
Small
Medium
High
Very high
Extreme
It is time
when scored capability indicators can meet again
scored risk
THEN
It is worth to indicate that whole BSR procedure includes results of Flagship project 14.3 and two matrices and allows to construct the third one as well. First matrix is RISK MATRIX following project Next one is CODI(fied) Matrix which confronts consequences with dimensions. The CODI Matrix allows to prioritize dimensions and to assign to each dimension proper weight.

9. Resilience Matrix is obtained
Scored capability indicators
1.0
Very high resilience
High
Acceptable
Temporary
Resilience
resilience
acceptable
Not acceptable
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
The first remark is that this common branch of both procedures indicates important property of resilience estimation. This is because, on the one hand, resilience is a function of risk and capability to manage it. On the other hand, generally speaking, resilience is a measure of crisis situation occurrence possibility. So, risk and ability to manage it are inseparable, if issues of avoidance of crisis situation emerging are considered.
0.0
Small medium high very high extreme
Scored risk

10. How to use BSR Methodology in Sendai Programme ?
THE SECOND CHALLENGE
How to use BSR Methodology in Sendai Programme ?
Understanding disaster risk
Strengthening disaster risk governance
to manage disaster risk
Investing in disaster risk
reduction for resilience
Enhancing response and recovery
Directly related to BSR Methodology
Indirectly related
To Risk Assessment
Project & BSR Methodology
Resiliencies Comparison
before and after priorities become materialized
PRIORITIES

11. HOW SECURITY CULTURE INFLUENCES RESILIENCE ?
THE THIRD CHALLENGE
HOW SECURITY CULTURE INFLUENCES RESILIENCE ?
Experts resilience value
Security Culture
How to describe
society ?
How the risks
are perceived ?
OUTRAGE
what is “real” resilience like?
Experts procedures
Public resilience
perceiving
HOT
DISCUSSION

12. More detailed challenges - some examples
- elaborating procedure of experts selection
In most cases experts from different branches should be involved into capability assessment process. A selection of proper experts is one of the most important factors to reach the success of capability assessment and one of the steps in capability risk management process. It seems that the way of experts selection needs special procedures and shouldn’t be based on intuitive feelings.
elaborating fifth dimensions scoring procedure (this challenge might be considered as analogue to scoring the risk).
It seems to be necessary unification of scoring methods for each of dimension. This unification allows us to compare risk management capability robust between different countries in the Region and then to compare resiliencies.
- elaborating methods of aggravation of scored dimensions.
To establish extent of ability to manage the risk capability it is necessary to aggravate results of each dimension scoring due to constructing relation consequences – dimensions (CODI Matrix)

13. More detailed challenges - some examples
- creation of security culture description
What elements of society characteristic are most influencing resilience of society? How community (cities, county) network can strengthen Regional resilience.
investigating relation experts opinion – public outrage
It is important to research public outrage phenomenon due to possibility of its positive or negative role with respect to resilience.
elaborating risk communication ways in relation experts - decision makers, decision makers – public, experts – public.
- elaborating a way of strengthening resilience providing for experts opinion and public risk perception

14. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION