1. NSLA AND BASIC EDUCATION SECTOR LEKGOTLA
ANALYSIS OF THE 2016 NSC EXAMINATION RESULTS
23 January 2017

2. A SYSTEM ON THE RISE
TIMSS 2015

3. Introduction

4. NSC Examination
The education enterprise is a highly complex activity and the outcome is based on a multiplicity of factors.
Hence, the quantification of the improvements in the system is an extremely challenging task.
NSC examination is one of the most important barometers to evaluate the success of the sector.
Primary purpose of the NSC examinations is to certify learners, but it can be used to monitor trends in performance, provided we understand the cohort differences.

5. NSC Examination
(e) In terms of Action Plan to 2019, the following three key targets are directly measured through the performance in the NSC examinations:
Increase the number of Grade 12 learners who become eligible for a Bachelor’s programme at University’;
Increase the number of Grade 12 learners who pass Mathematics; and
Increase the number of Grade 12 learners who pass Physical Science

6. The Class of 2016

7. NSC Full Time Enrolments: 2012 - 2016

8. 2016 NSC Full Time Entered versus Wrote
Province
Entered 2016
Wrote 2016
(seven or more)
Absent/
Incomplete
Eastern Cape
92 755
82 902
9 853
Free State
28 901
26 786
2 115
Gauteng
8 335
KwaZulu-Natal
21 375
Limpopo
8 832
Mpumalanga
60 794
54 251
6 543
North West
35 403
32 045
3 358
Northern Cape
11 821
10 041
1 780
Western Cape
53 152
50 869
2 283
National
64 474

9. NSC Part Time Enrolments: 2012 - 2016

10. NSC 2016 Progressed Learners per Province
Difference
Eastern Cape
12 304
14 289
1 985
Free State
8 187
6 990
-1 197
Gauteng
5 198
11 596
6 398
KwaZulu-Natal
10 633
26 046
15 413
Limpopo
13 227
22 256
9 029
Mpumalanga
5 228
14 086
8 858
North West
3 767
7 588
3 821
Northern Cape
2 280
2 506
226
Western Cape
4 847
3 403
-1 444
National
65 671
43 071

11. Historical Trends

12. The Number of Candidates Passing Matric since 1970

13. NSC Performance: 2010 to 2016 17

14. Youth having completed Grade 12 by province and age (2012-2014)

15. Overall Performance

16. Overall Performance – 2015 & 2016 (Progressed Learners Included)
Province
2015
2016
% Difference
Total Wrote
Total Achieved
% Achieved
Ranking
Eastern Cape
87 090
49 475
56.8 9
82 902
49 168
59.3
2.5
Free State
31 161
25 416
81.6 3
26 786
23 629
88.2 1
6.6
Gauteng
90 327
84.2 2
88 381
85.1
0.9
KwaZulu-Natal
98 761
60.7 8
98 032
66.4 7
5.7
Limpopo
66 946
65.9
63 595
62.5
-3.4
Mpumalanga
54 980
43 229
78.6 5
54 251
41 801
77.1 6
-1.6
North West
33 286
27 118
81.5 4
32 045
26 448
82.5
1.0
Northern Cape
11 623
8 064
69.4
10 041
7 902
78.7
9.3
Western Cape
53 721
45 489
84.7
50 869
43 716
85.9
1.2
NATIONAL
70.7
72.5
1.8

17. Progressed Learners Excluded
Province
2015
2016
% Difference
Total Wrote
Total Achieved
% Achieved
Ranking
EASTERN CAPE
75 317
46 829
62.2 8
73 739
46 655
63.3 9
1.1
FREE STATE
26 082
22 876
87.7 2
21 504
20 032
93.2 1
5.5
GAUTENG
89 237
85.9 3
96 425
83 862
87.0
KWAZULU-NATAL
93 997
61.6
93 537
69.5 7
7.9
LIMPOPO
88 524
63 454
71.7
85 858
58 586
68.2
-3.4
MPUMALANGA
49 888
40 939
82.1 5
45 647
37 105
81.3 6
-0.8
NORTH WEST
9 659
7 454
77.2
27 392
23 603
86.2 4
9.0
NORTHERN CAPE
29 743
24 996
84.0
8 811
7 243
82.2
-1.8
WESTERN CAPE
50 119
44 080
88.0
48 627
42 665
-0.2
NATIONAL
74.1
76.2
2.1

18. Progressed Learners Only
Province
2015
2016
Difference
Total Wrote
Total Achieved
% Achieved
Ranking
EASTERN CAPE
11 705
2 625
22.4 9
9 163
2 513
27.4
5.0
FREE STATE
5 105
2 600
50.9 2
5 282
3 597
68.1 1
17.2
GAUTENG
4 568
2 149
47.0 4
7 404
4 519
61.0 3
14.0
KWAZULU-NATAL
10 070
4 765
47.3
12 983
4 495
34.6 7
-12.7
LIMPOPO
13 022
3 492
26.8 8
15 949
5 009
31.4
4.6
MPUMALANGA
5 091
2 290
45.0 5
8 604
4 696
54.6
9.6
NORTH WEST
3 543
2 122
59.9
4 653
2 845
61.1
1.3
NORTHERN CAPE
1 963
613
31.2
1 230
659
53.6
22.3
WESTERN CAPE
3 589
1 404
39.1 6
2 242
1 051
46.9
7.8
NATIONAL
58 656
22 060
37.6
67 510
29 384
43.5
5.9

19. Overall Performance (Progressed Included (2016)

20. Progressed Learners Excluded

21. Progressed Learners Only

22. NSC Passes by Type of Qualification, 2016
Prov.
Total Wrote
Bachelor
Diploma
Higher Certificate
NSC
No. Achieved
% Achieved EC
82 902
15 645
18.9
19 996
24.1
13 520
16.3 5
0.0 FS
26 786
9 596
35.82
10 244
38.2
3 767
14.1 1 GP
37 582
36.2
37 121
35.8
13 615
13.1
KZN
36 139
24.48
39 507
26.8
22 347
15.1 39 LP
18 762
18.43
23 544
23.1
21 281
20.9 7 MP
54 251
12 420
22.89
18 447 34
10 918
20.1 16 NW
32 045
8 820
27.52
11 177
34.9
6 450 NC
10 041
2 606
25.95
3 278
32.6
2 015 WC
50 869
20 804
40.9
16 305
32.1
6 573
12.9
NAT
26.6
29.4
16.5 68 19

23. Bachelor Pass Trend (Percentage): 2009 -2016

24. Bachelor Pass Trend (Numbers): 2009 - 201621

25. Bachelor Passes (Numbers) per Province: 201622

26. NSC Passes by Type of Qualification per Quintile: 2016
2015
2016
Quintiles
Q 1-3
Q 4-5
No. of Bachelors
80 381
73 810
78 886
72 952 25

27. Performance based on Gender
Male
Female
Province
Wrote
Achieved
% Achieved
EASTERN CAPE
37 116
22 955
61.8
45 786
26 213
57.3
FREE STATE
12 114
10 875
89.8
14 672
12 754
86.9
GAUTENG
47 016
40 479
86.1
56 813
47 902
84.3
KWAZULU-NATAL
68 028
45 468
66.8
79 620
52 564
66.0
LIMPOPO
46 292
30 580
66.1
55 515
33 015
59.5
MPUMALANGA
24 350
19 442
79.8
29 901
22 359
74.8
NORTH WEST
14 963
12 676
84.7
17 082
13 772
80.6
NORTHERN CAPE
4 552
3 639
79.9
5 489
4 263
77.7
WESTERN CAPE
22 195
19 428
87.5
28 674
24 288
NATIONAL
74.3
71.1

28. School Performance within different Percentage Categories27

29. Schools performance within different percentage categories, 2015 - 2016
School Intervals 
2015
2016
Total Number of school
% of schools %
243
3.6
196
2.9 %
775
11.4
671
9.8
40 to 59.9%
1 310
19.3
1 221
17.9
60 to 79.9%
1 813
26.8
1 873
27.5
80 to 100%
2 631
38.9
2 853
41.9
Exactly 0% 22
0.3 18
Exactly 100%
470
6.9
548
8.0 28

30. Schools that obtained 100% pass: 2012 - 2016
Province
No of Schools
Eastern Cape 7
Free State 12
Gauteng 32
KwaZulu-Natal 19
Limpopo 2
Mpumalanga 3
North West
Northern Cape
Western Cape 31
Total
111 31

31. School Performance by Quintiles30

32. School performance by Quintile - 2016
Quintiles % % % % %
Exactly 0%
Exactly 100%
Quintile 1
106
287
410
504
500 6 48
Quintile 2 41
189
383
536
493 5 47
Quintile 3 31
157
295
486
459 1
Quintile 4 2 10 57
168
365 55
Quintile 5 4 19 83
607
173
Total
180
647
1 164
1 777
2 424 12
354

33. Subject Performance 32

34. Candidates’ performance in selected subjects, 2011 – 2016 (at 30% level)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Accounting
65.6
65.7
68.0
59.6
69.5
Agricultural Sciences
73.7
80.7
82.6
76.9
75.4
Business Studies
77.4
81.9
77.9
75.7
Economics
72.8
73.9
68.9
68.2
65.3
Geography
75.8
80.0
81.3
77.0
76.5
History
86.0
87.1
86.3
84.0
Life Orientation
99.7
99.8
99.6
Life Sciences
73.8
70.4
70.5
Mathematical Literacy
87.4
84.1
71.4
71.3
Mathematics
54.0
59.1
53.5
49.1
51.1
Physical Sciences
61.3
67.4
61.5
58.6
62.0 33

35. Candidates’ performance in selected subjects, 2011 – 2016 (at 40% level)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Accounting
42.7
41.5
44.3
36.2
44.9
Agricultural Sciences
41.0
49.9
52.9
45.0
44.5
Business Studies
58.2
53.8
51.4
49.5
Economics
45.8
45.2
38.8
39.1
36.4
Geography
46.7
53.4
54.0
50.4
48.1
History
65.0
67.1
66.5
63.2
64.3
English FAL
98.8
99.0
97.8
96.9
96.0
Life Sciences
43.4
47.8
48.9
46.0
Mathematical Literacy
61.4
62.4
59.5
46.4
Mathematics
35.7
40.5
35.1
31.9
33.5
Physical Sciences
36.9
36.1
39.5 35

36. Mathematics achieved at 30% & 40% level, 2010 - 201637

37. Physical Sciences achieved at 30% & 40% level, 2010 - 201638

38. Candidates Performance in Home Languages (at 40% & above) 2014 - 2016

39. Number and percentage of distinctions in the 12 Key Subjects: 2015 and 2016
2015
2016
Subject
Wrote
Achieved with distinction (80% - 100%)
% with Distinction
Achieved with distinction (80% -100%)
Accounting
5 820
4.1
6 576
5.1
Afrikaans First Add Language
86 987
5 629
6.5
83 883
6 167
7.4
Agricultural Sciences
305
0.3
326
Business Studies
5 783
2.3
4 999
2.1
Economics
1 309
0.8
1 586
1.0
English First Add Language
5 178
6 664
1.2
Geography
4 635
1.5
4 183
1.4
History
5 540
3.6
5 973
3.8
Life Sciences
9 325
2.7
9 203
2.6
Mathematical Literacy
6 130
1.6
4 364
Mathematics
7 791
3.0
8 070
Physical Sciences
5 903
3.1
7 043
3.7 38

40. District Performance 42

41. District performance by achievement interval and province: 2016
Total number of Districts
2016
Below 50%
50% to 59.9%
60% to 69.9%
70% to 79.9%
80% and above EC 23 5 4 10 3 1 FS GP 15 2 13
KZN 12 6 LP MP NW NC WC 8
Total (2016) 81 19 17 32
Total (2015) 14 29

42. Under-performing Districts
Total Wrote
Number Achieved
% Achieved
Eastern Cape
Idutywa
5 156
2 553
49.5
Lady Frere
1 633
809
Libode
7 222
3 465
47.9
Lusikisiki
4 202
1 878
44.7
Ngcobo
2 837
1 338
47.2

43. Performance of Part-Time Candidates46

44. Candidates Enrolled/Wrote (Part time): 2015 - 2016
2015
2016
Province Name
Total Entered
Total Wrote
Eastern Cape
19 312
12 618
20 847
13 819
Free State
3 470
2 118
3 775
2 430
Gauteng
39 181
28 837
42 025
32 675
KwaZulu-Natal
31 176
21 247
37 915
25 862
Limpopo
16 137
11 951
21 124
15 421
Mpumalanga
5 569
3 871
7 189
4 996
North West
3 386
2 711
3 884
3 164
Northern Cape
1 838
1 157
3 976
2 264
Western Cape
11 312
6 553
12 633
7 162
National
91 063 47

45. Performance in Selected subjects (Part time): 2015 - 2016
Total Wrote
% Achieved
Accounting
13 362
33.5
15 328
40.1
Agricultural Sciences
4 820
54.7
6 713
53.6
Business Studies
16 231
49.6
17 942
44.7
Economics
15 309
39.6
17 257
36.5
Geography
17 541
51.5
21 245
49.0
History
4 643
59.6
5 459
57.2
Life Orientation
2 480
98.0
1 879
99.0
Life Sciences
32 114
55.3
39 008
Mathematical Literacy
19 868
52.8
27 575
47.4
Mathematics
44 376
35.4
50 925
37.8
Physical Sciences
35 219
39.0
39 801
43.5 47

46. Significant Gains 46

47. Significant Gains
(a) Increase in the number of candidates that wrote Mathematics ( to ).
The percentage of candidates that passed Mathematics increased from 49.1% to 51.1%.
The number of candidates that passed Mathematics at 40% increased by , from 2014.
(d) In Mathematics learners achieved a mark of 60% or more in the 2016 examinations. Of the increase of 1700 from 2015, 1308 are black African learners.
(e) The percentage of candidates that passed Physical Science increased from 58.6% to 62%
(f) The number of candidates that passed Physical Science at 40% increased by , from 2014.

48. Significant Gains
(g) 2853 (41.9%) of the schools attained a pass percentage of 80% and above. (h) 1452 (59.9%) of the schools from quintile 1-3 attained a pass percentage of 80% and above. (i) learners from quintiles 1-3 schools qualified for admission to Bachelor Studies. This is more than the number of learners from quintiles 4 and 5. (j) 32 of the 82 districts achieved a pass rate of 80% and above. (k) The number of districts attaining a pass rate of below 50% decreased from 8 to 5.

49. Inclusive Basket of Criteria

50. Inclusive Basket of Criteria
Overall pass percentage
Mathematics pass percentage
Physical Sciences pass percentage
Bachelor attainment percentage
Distinction percentage
Mathematics Participation rate
Throughput rate

51. Weighting Indicator Weighting Factor Max Score
1. Overall Pass Percentage
35%
0.35 35
2. Percentage Passed Maths
10%
0.1 10
3. Percentage Passed Physical Sciences
4. Percentage Attained Bachelor Passes
15%
0.15 15
5. Percentage attained Distinctions
6. Mathematics Participation rate
7. Throughput rate
Total
100% 1
100

52. Inclusive Basket of Criteria - 2016
Province
Overall Pass Percentage
% Mathematics Passes
% Physical Sciences Passes
% Bachelor Passes
% Distinctions
% Mathematics Participation Rate
% Throughput Rate
Inclusive Basket Score
WESTERN CAPE
85.9
77.2
73.5
40.9
7.1
30.6
56.1
60.7
FREE STATE
88.2
71.4
75.5
35.8
4.2
38.6
42.0
59.4
GAUTENG
85.1
68.7
68.5
36.2
4.6
37.2
48.1
57.9
NORTH WEST
82.5
62.7
69.8
27.5
3.0
33.1
39.7
53.8
NORTHERN CAPE
78.7
61.1
57.2
26.0
2.1
27.6
44.7
50.7
LIMPOPO
62.5
54.0
62.3
18.4
42.8
33.3
44.1
MPUMALANGA
77.1
53.6
63.6
22.9
1.9
43.0
51.0
KWAZULU-NATAL
66.4
38.2
57.8
24.5
3.8
54.6
37.7
46.1
EASTERN CAPE
59.3
37.6
49.7
18.9
47.7
31.8
40.5
NATIONAL
72.5
51.3
62.0
26.6
3.5
43.4
40.1
49.4

53. Inclusive Basket Score

54. Mathematics Pass Percentage

55. Physical Sciences Pass Percentage

56. Bachelor Pass Percentage

57. Distinction Percentage

58. Mathematics Participation Rate

59. Throughput Rate (Number that wrote in Grade 12 compared to number that enrolled in Grade 10)

60. Eastern Cape

61. Free State

62. Gauteng

63. KwaZulu-Natal

64. Limpopo

65. Mpumalanga

66. North West

67. Northern Cape

68. Western Cape

69. Inclusive Basket First 40 Districts

70. Inclusive Basket – Second 41 Districts

71. Inclusive Basket of Criteria provides a more comprehensive account of the performance at provincial and district levels, since this score is a multi-indicator approach – (critical national indicators).
This approach will re-direct the focus from the overall pass percentage to six other important criteria.
This approach will ensure that schools and districts now focus on improving their performance in Mathematics, Physical Sciences, Bachelor passes, distinctions, Mathematics participation rate and the throughput rate.

72. School Based Assessment

73. Current Status
Improvements in the implementation of School based assessment noted in 2016 especially at the Grade 12 level
Grade 10 and 11 still lagging behind in quality and standard.
(c) In 2016 the focus was on the following:
Mediating the NSC Exam and SBA Comparative Analysis
Finalisation of the national SBA Policy
An audit if the SBA systems in all provinces
Moderation of SBA tasks and Learner Evidence
Development of a Guideline for the Conduct of Internal Examinations.
Moderation of Practical Assessment Tasks and Oral Assessment.
Setting of Common Assessment Tasks for Life Orientation

74. Key Challenges in 2016 and Proposed Interventions in 2017
Poor quality of some SBA tasks, or tasks of low cognitive level
Over-dependence on past question papers or provincially/district based tasks.
Training of subject advisors on development of assessment tasks
Training of provincial chief markers on setting of question papers (Prep exams)
Provision of SBA exemplars
Variations in moderation systems at school, district, provincial and national levels.
Report on audit of SBA systems to shared with PEDs.
Mediate the Policy on quality assurance of SBA
Assessment systems to support the implementation of PATs at provincial and district levels
Conduct audit of PAT moderation system.
Draft Guidelines for the moderation of PATs
Monitor and moderate the implementation of PATs
Computation and Capturing of SBA marks
Audit of PEDS systems relating to computing and capturing SBA marks
Evaluation of mark sheets/tools utilised
Streamlining of processes across PEDs via circular/directives/norms
Ensuring that SASAMS is CAPS compliant

75. Provincial Comparative Analysis – 2016 (SBA and Examination)
ALL
Rejected
%Rejected
>15%
% >15%
<5%
%<5% EC
10942
420
3.8
1457
13.3
5297
48.4 FS
4190 63
1.5
181
4.3
2654
63.3 GP
12510
104
0.8
682
5.5
8613
68.8
KZN
19325
540
2.8
2581
13.4
9500
49.2 LP
14818
913
6.2
1845
12.5
6804
45.9 MP
6799
209
3.1
712
10.5
3523
51.8 NC
1602 34
2.1
171
10.7
886
55.3 NW
4481
163
3.6
315
7.0
2594
57.9 WC
6042 28
0.5
228
3933
65.1
NATIONAL
80690
2474
8172
10.1
43804
54.3

76. Provincial Comparative Analysis – 2015 & 2016
Year
ALL
Rejected
%Rejected
>15%
% >15%
<5%
%<5% EC
2015
10848
462
4.3
1852
17.1
4747
43.8
2016
10942
420
3.8
1457
13.3
5297
48.4 FS
4243 60
1.4
177
4.2
2806
66.1
4190 63
1.5
181
2654
63.3 GP
12288
113
0.9
1107
9.0
7928
64.5
12510
104
0.8
682
5.5
8613
68.8
KZN
19454
679
3.5
5311
27.3
6955
35.8
19325
540
2.8
2581
13.4
9500
49.2 LP
15019
1055
7.0
2533
16.9
6083
40.5
14818
913
6.2
1845
12.5
6804
45.9 MP
6828
225
3.3
959
14.0
3453
50.6
6799
209
3.1
712
10.5
3523
51.8 NC
1593 38
2.4
247
15.5
774
48.6
1602 34
2.1
171
10.7
886
55.3 NW
4373
163
3.7
509
11.6
2358
53.9
4481
3.6
315
2594
57.9 WC
6095 24
0.4
234
4282
70.3
6042 28
0.5
228
3933
65.1
NATIONAL
80741
2819
12929
16.0
39386
48.8
80690
2474
8172
10.1
43804
54.3

77. Comparative Analysis between SBA and Examination Marks: 2015 and 2016
The quality of internal assessment at schools is improving
There has been a national decline of 0.4% (345 moderation records) of rejected marks from 2015 to 2016
In the category of >15 there has also been an improvement as the data shows a decline of 5.9% (4 757 moderation records) nationally

78. Conclusion

79. Conclusion
Despite the criticisms against the NSC examinations, it remains a reliable indicator of performance of the system.
There is a gradual increase in the cognitive demand of question papers and through the benchmarking process, our question papers are becoming internationally comparable.
Closer working relationship with State Security Agencies to improve the security of the examination system.
Exploring various options to improve the quality of marking, including E-marking.
Strengthen SBA through exemplification.

80. Thank You