1. Prof Mark R Thompson April 11, 2017
Combining the Theories: Authoritarian Developmentalism (AM) and Modernization Theory (MT)
Prof Mark R Thompson
April 11, 2017

2. Origins Authoritarian developmentalism (AM)
A chief characteristic of East Asia
Only thing that (sort of) ‘unites’ it as a region
Is a commitment to development
By authoritarian means
First Meiji Japan
Then the ‘tigers’ (Sing., S Korea, Taiwan)
Southeast Asia (Indon, Philippines, Mal, Thailand)
Most recently the communist converts (China and Vietnam)

3. Exceptions Not North Korea Nor Myanmar
Commitment to Juche ideology after death of ‘Great Leader’
Dynastic succession to insure continued totalitarian rule
Worry about justification of separate country in divided Korea
Only limited reforms under Kim II and III to insure regime survival
Nor Myanmar
(Non) communist socialist ideology of Ne Win’s civilianized regime
Military junta abandons socialism, makes limited reforms after 1988
But don’t want to threaten military control with powerful technocrats

4. Does East Asia prove Modern. Theory (MT)?
In East Asia three of region’s richest countries
- Have become stable electoral democracies
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan
Japan under post-WWII U.S. influence
But South Korea and Taiwan after rapid growth

5. Other factors South Korea and Taiwan ‘divided nations’
Made it harder for AD leaders to gain legitimacy
Increasing ‘nationalist’ opposition
Student-led in South Korea
‘Native’ Taiwanese resentful of KMT rule
Both countries dependent on US
economically
and for external security
U.S. pressure for regime change

6. ‘Too poor to be democratic’
Other countries became electoral democracies
- before they became rich
Philippines (1986); Thailand (1993) Indonesia (1998)
most recently Myanmar (2016)
But are unstable politically
Thai democracy collapses (military coups 2006, 2008, and since 2014)
Philippine democracy threatened (with election of Duterte 2016)
Indonesia vulnerable (minorities persecuted)

7. ‘Too rich to be authoritarian’
While other countries became rich
- Without becoming democratic
- Above all Singapore
- But also Malaysia
East Asia home to the
- two richest countries in the world
- not dependent on oil exports
- which are not liberal electoral democracies
- Electoral authoritarian
- Singapore seen as ‘model’ for China
- Meritocratic one-party dominant rule

8. Conclusion I Economically and politically successful AD regimes
can escape the ‘modernization trap’
although ‘meritocratic’ Singapore only current example (Malaysia’s government discredited by scandal )
China trying to imitate it

9. Conclusion II Economically unsuccessful ones have democratized
When they are still relatively poor
Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia
But problems of ‘political order’ weaken/undermine democracy
Such as Thailand’s military coup
Or democratic deconsolidation in the Philippines

10. Conclusion III Economically successful AD regimes
but politically ‘unsuccessful’
yielded to protests/pressures for democratic transition
Have become relatively successful democracies
South Korea and Taiwan
some see S. Korea’s current corruption scandal as vindication
of well functioning democracy
victory of opposition DPP in 2015 underlines robust democracy
even if much disliked by Beijing

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