1. Compiled by: Sheila Moorcroft Research Director: Shaping Tomorrow
Seeing the potential: Acting on the opportunity What is driving the need for radical innovation?
Compiled by:
Sheila Moorcroft
Research Director: Shaping Tomorrow

2. From potential to opportunity
What may be changing? What might it mean for us? What should we do about it?

3. A rapid review of critical changes
Using Shaping Tomorrow’s experience, 78,000+ indicators of change and trends we suggest five major areas of change which are creating the need for new approaches, greater creativity and more innovation
They have implications for HR, business models, organisational structures, skills, training and education
There are others..... this is a starter kit - a snapshot of changes, designed to trigger ideas and discussion NOT cover issues in detail
You can read them in about 15 minutes
21,000 members; 7000 organisations; 5500 sources
International coverage / local correspondents – FT, Reuters, New Scientist,
National sources - Times of India, Nucleo De Estudos do Futuro, South Africa-The good news, Globe and Mail
Topic specific sources e.g. Wired, TechCrunch, Science Centric, MIT Tech Review, IPCC, Singularity
National and global foresight projects / sources e.g. OECD, EU / EFP, World Futures Society, Finland futures, UK Foresight ....
Blogs e.g. Ft.com-beyond brics, MEC, sciam, Euromonitor, smart economy.....

4. An Overview What is driving the need for radical innovation?
From tell to engage
1 billion new consumers
A kaleidoscopic mosaic
Generational differences widening
Values, attitudes aspirations & expectations changing
Multi-layered worlds – virtual, augmented, real
Instant communications
Integrated global infrastructures & systems
Global access to learning and sharing
Complexity and competiition rising
Opening up in a big data, multi-layered world
Radical / frugal innovation
Collaboration rules
Radical innovation
Global supply chains
Transparency and trackability
Global challenges need global solutions
New tools creating new capabilities
Population growth
Intelligent connectivity
Resource pressures rising
Inside information – genetics, neuroscience, nanotechnology
An Overview
Navigating a multi-polar world
Very clever robots
Changing climate, environment & eco-systems
3D printing revolution 4

5. World population: growing and ageing
2030 = 8 billion; 2050 = 9 billion > How do we feed them?
West = ageing; emerging = growing – except China – will age sooner than we expect.
By 2040 Africa and Middle East will have largest working age population, hungry for jobs and better lives.
It is not just the west that is ageing: 59 nations have below replacement fertility rates; growth is from longevity not births
We will need to work smarter, but also find jobs for global youth

6. Aspirations and confidence rising
With economic growth come aspirations, increased consumption and opportunity … but also increased use of resources, increased energy demand , increased urbanisation, increased meat consumption, increased pollution and emissions….……
1 billion new consumers are coming; pressures on resources will rise
Mobile connectivity is creating a multiplier effect, & new solutions
Six of the ten fastest growing economies are in Africa ; emerging market companies are growing fast
Competition and expectations are changing

7. Different attitudes and approaches abound
Generations have different approaches and attitudes, shaped by events and technologies as they grow up. The marketing industry has developed key names and characteristics to capitalise on these.
An ageing boomer generation is making waves
The connected i-generation is growing up
Mosaic markets and mobile workforces require very differentiated solutions

8. Data rich environments and feed back loops
By 2020, 50 billion things will be connecting and communicating... Creating visibility, big data and rapid feedback
Social media an interactive overlay to life; instant consumer feedback loops and viral responses
Companies will need to respond fast and flexibly
Machines will talk to machines; humans will interact with machines; machines will keep track of things; machines will keep track of humans; oh, and humans will interact with humans. Our homes, our clothes, our cars, our dustbins, our infrastructures... everything will have embedded intelligence and connectivity, plus the ability to monitor, interact and send messages, be programmed, interrogated and data analysed. By 2020 we are likely to have about 50 billion different devices connected to the internet. 8

9. Extending realities brings new approaches
Extending realities will enable new ways of coming together, new approaches to training and leisure.
Real reality (RR) can be extended or enhanced by Augmented Reality (AR); whole other worlds have been developed for gaming and training, and increasingly medical treatment, which are totally virtual (VR).
Teleconferencing is becoming telepresence and soon with holographic images to bring people into the room together. Holograms of security staff are appearing in airports to try to encourage passengers to remember to dispose of liquids before security checks.
3D films, TV and gaming devices are becoming commonplace. Haptic technologies are enhancing our digital experiences with touch, smell and other sensations. Soon we will be able physically to interact with holograms almost as though they were there – even to the point of dancing with one.
VR in healthcare can help speed up the healing processes of burns victims – by using snow scenes; reduce stress and improve mood in depressed patients by changing the decor and view. Medical facilities have been recreated in Second Life to help trainee doctors learn and practise. Online gaming helps people learn to collaborate as well as fight, and has been shown to develop skills of persistence and determination.
But there are also dark sides. Even with these low levels of altered layers of realities, concerns about addiction, transfer of aggression from virtual to real worlds, altered brains and thinking are rising.
From 2D to 3D, interactive worlds and surroundings
Augmented realities enable remote working, multi-sense marketing, product and location information at fingertips, real time offers, blended world gaming and leisure, virtual health care and training......

10. Open, bottom up, collaborative, crowdsourced....
Citizen science & gamification are finding new approaches and solutions; fast
Collaboration is breaking out; finding new bottom up approaches
Open systems are speeding up responses – in all directions

11. Radical transparency: nowhere to hide?
Connectivity is bringing transparency and trackability – legal and illegal
Corporations and governments open to scrutiny
Privacy concerns rising
New ways to track anything and everything, in real time emerging

12. Technology changing how we do things

13. A 3D printing revolution arriving
Has moved from prototype to manufacture to design shops to consumers
Expanding list of materials and levels of sophistication
An increasing range of applications – legal and illegal - will change the dynamics of sectors from food to pharma, electronics to aviation, jewellery to furnishings, not to mention manufacturing and distribution

14. NANO has already arrived
Breakdown of specified nano applications in consumer products
Numbers of nanotechnology applications are rising
Its applications could transform products and processes – everlasting tyres, self healing materials, digital storage......
Health and environmental concerns may yet become a major barrier

15. Bio-science revolution, ready for take off?
Source: Chris Warkup
Genomics, proteomics, transcriptomics, metabolomics , nutrigenomics....
A personalised medical revolution?
A food / new green revolution?
A fuel revolution?
But concerns about playing god......

16. Global challenges on many fronts
Global pressures on food & water supplies + other resources are growing
Climate change is bringing more extreme weather
Oceans are under the next frontier
Global issues need global responses

17. Changing structures in a multi-polar world
G8 has become G20
Economic fragility in the west + growing economic strength & confidence in emerging market countries is changing the balance of power
Social / political tensions remain high & are growing in many areas
Navigating these global complexities is ever more difficult 17

18. Managing the complexity of a self-organising world
Levels of complexity facing communities, organisations & government at the regional & national levels are increasing. New technologies, new political realities, greater diversity, new understanding of cause & effect – among other changes, will all increase that complexity further. So too will new approaches to a more systems view of the world.
Complexity theory is moving out of academic research & into practical application in organisational change & policy development
Regulators & management cannot control everything in such a complex world, new approaches – co-creation, bottom up, self organising approaches are needed
Open government, interdepartmental collaboration, more complex tradeoffs will be central to decision making & policy development
Levels of social, political, & organisational complexity are growing
We are moving from a top-down control to bottom-up self-organising world
New organisational forms and business models are emerging 18

19. New suppliers, approaches, solutions
Emerging economies are the new innovators: faced with cost constraints, relatively poor but huge markets / demand, they have found new ways to do things:
Tata Nano – stripped out everything non essential
M-Pesa has been providing mobile banking and payment systems to the unbanked in Kenya and the Philippines – and elsewhere for years.
Godrej & Boyce Manufacturing has developed a $70 fridge that runs on batteries
$35 ‘ipad from india/ similar from Indonesia.....
Open heart surgery in this hospital can cost $2000, rather than anything between $20,000 and $100,000 in the USA. Shetty is now setting up a hospital along similar lines off the coast of Miami.
New forms of competition from radical innovation and cost cutting in any number of sectors – hospitals, cars, animal health, food, m-payment, mobile advertising, work distribution.....
New responses from existing players needed

20. Shaping Tomorrow- keeping track of change
20,000 members; 7000 organisations; 5500 sources
International coverage / local correspondents – FT, Reuters, New Scientist,
National sources - Times of India, Nucleo De Estudos do Futuro, South Africa-The good news, Globe and Mail
Topic specific sources e.g. Wired, TechCrunch, Science Centric, MIT Tech Review, IPCC, Singularity
National and global foresight projects / sources e.g. OECD, EU / EFP, World Futures Society, Finland futures, UK Foresight ....
Blogs e.g. Ft.com-beyond brics, MEC, sciam, Euromonitor, smart economy.....
Helping clients with strategy development, change management, innovation, collaborative working, foresight......