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Abdur Rahman Sagor Asst. Manager, Recovery, DMV Energypac power generation Ltd. 17/02/2014
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Model basis of Application We’ve addressed things like fuel economy, weight, and driver environment. Next, we’ll see technologies such as collision avoidance systems, stability systems – anything which can reduce their [the operator’s] overall costs further. We definitely put a lot of effort into developing standardized cross-segment components for our trucks. In the end, we have to account to very specific end user requirements across all markets and these set very tight limits to standardization. Just take our Worth plant. Of course, such a high degree of differentiation is not necessary in the emerging markets.
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Outline of the Presentation Domestic Commercial Vehicle Industry- Volume Trends Overcapacity in the trucking system Industry volume trends in M & H CVs, LCVs and Buses Trend in macro economic indicators Trend in freight rates and fleet operator viability Key Trends in the CV financing environment Market share trends and competitive landscape Trend in profitability indicators of CV Outlook.
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I NTRODUCTION Commercial vehicle sales are spurred on by economic growth going in hand with the rising demand for the transport of goods. Of course, this is common knowledge – but just perfectly describes the ups and downs in the truck industry over the last couple of years. One thing is for sure: the markets will converge – not today, but early enough to start thinking about which winning strategies could guide the way to a profitable and sustainable global truck business model for tomorrow.
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Light commercial vehicles (LCV) are goods and carriage vehicles with a gross vehicle weight (GVW) that varies from one region to another. In order to ensure international comparability, all LCVs referred to in this report have a GVW below 6 tons (t). Heavy commercial vehicles (HCV) are commercial vehicles carrying goods with a gross vehicle weight (GVW) greater than 6 tons (t). A Full-Line Manufacturer (FLM) is a truck manufacturer producing and selling commercial vehicles in both the LCV and the HCV segment Gross vehicle weight (GVW) is the maximum allowable total weight of a fully loaded commercial vehicle. This includes the actual vehicle weight as well as passengers, cargo and fuel.. HCV FLM GVW D ESCRIPTION LVC
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Overview Of the China Commercial Vehicles market Vehicle manufacturers groups The top five manufacturers in China –Dongfeng, FAW, CNHTC, Torch and Beijing Automotive – command almost 70 % of truck sales FULL-LINE(LCV+HCV) BAIC Chengdu Xindadi China First Tractor Dongfeng FAW Fujian Lifan Group Nanjing Automotive SAIC Shuguang Group Zhengzhou Yutong Coach
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1 First Automotive Works 2 China National Heavy Duty Truck Corp. 3 Volvo, Renault Trucks, Mack 4 Beijing Automotive Industry Corp. (Auman, EuroV, Beiqi Foton) Source: KPMG International, IHS Automotive, Leading players in key regions and China markets Share (GVW > 6 tons) Leading players in key regions and China markets Share (GVW > 6 tons)
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Overview Of the India Commercial Vehicles market The top three Commercial Vehicle Manufacturers in India are : 1.TATA Motors(58.5%), 2.Mahindra and Mahindra (15.7%) 3.Ashok Leyland (11.0%)
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Source: KPMG International, IHS Automotive, Indian Market share and market growth of the 9 largest New Light commercial vehicle groups
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Source: KPMG International, IHS Automotive, Indian Market share and market growth of the 9 largest New heavy commercial vehicle groups
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Euro 1 (1993): For passenger cars - 91/441/EEC. Also for passenger cars and light trucks - 93/59/EEC.light trucks Euro 2 (1996): for passenger cars - 94/12/EC (& 96/69/EC) For motorcycle - 2002/51/EC (row A) - 2006/120/EC Euro 3 (2000): for any vehicle - 98/69/EC For motorcycle - 2002/51/EC (row B) - 2006/120/EC Euro 4 (2005): for any vehicle - 98/69/EC (& 2002/80/EC) Euro 5 (2008/9) and Euro 6 (2014) For light passenger and commercial vehicles - 715/2007/EC These limits supersede the original directive on emission limits 70/220/EEC. http://www.jacobsvehiclesystems.com/markets/india/ EU directives provide the definition of the standard. the acceptable limits for exhaust emissions of new vehicles sold in EU member states. The emission standards are defined in a series of European Union directives staging the progressive introduction of increasingly stringent standards.EUemission standardsEuropean Union directives
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Nevertheless, a complete convergence of the markets cannot be expected within a typical planning horizon (10 to 15 years). Most likely three distinct market segments are expected to evolve in emerging markets: The low-cost segment, with technically simple and cheap trucks The modern domestic segment, with further developed, robust and still extremely favorably-priced trucks. The premium segment, with technically high-quality and high-value trucks from European, North American and Japanese OEMs. Significant structural changes are expected in China as well, albeit not as drastic as in Russia. Owing to the intense efforts of the Chinese government and the increasing number of joint ventures between emerging and established OEMs, both the modern domestic segment and the premium segment are expected to account for a considerable share of the market by 2020. “India, on the other hand, is trailing behind. The Institute for Automotive Research believes that market segmentation will only change slightly by 2020. The low cost segment is still expected to dominate the Indian market for a long time yet. “ Source: KPMG International, IHS Automotive, The segment of “modern domestic” trucks will see the strongest growth in the medium-term.
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Source: KPMG International, IHS Automotive, Shift of the segment structure in the emerging markets
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Bangladesh, with about 160 million inhabitants on a landmass of 147,570 square kilometers, is among the most densely-populated countries in the world. While poverty in both urban and rural areas declined by an impressive 19 percentage points in the last decade-and- a-half, the absolute number of people below the poverty line remains significant. With around 53 million people still below the poverty line, Bangladesh faces considerable development challenges. Bangladesh’s geographical position makes it one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change and natural calamities like cyclones and floods. Sixty percent of the worldwide deaths caused by cyclones in the last 20 years occurred in Bangladesh. Sustained growth in recent years has rapidly increased the demand for energy, transport and telecommunications services. Bangladesh: Bolstering Economic Growth t... Bangladesh : Country Overview
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Bangladesh 's infrastructure industry is one of the most underdeveloped in the world, a factor which has impeded economic growth in the country. However, growing bilateral ties between neighboring China and India has brought with it investments into the country's infrastructure industry. But Bangladesh has maintained an impressive track record on growth and development., the economy has grown at nearly 6 percent per year. This will require increasing GDP growth to 7.5 to 8 percent per year based on accelerated export and remittance growth. Both public and private investment will need to increase as well http://www.asiatradehub.com/bangladesh/roads.asp Bangladesh aspires to be a middle-income country by 2021
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i. National Highways are needed to be upgraded into 4/6 lanes with medians to commensurate with higher traffic growth and to improve road safety ii. Construction of new bridges to ensure uninterrupted traffic flow including replacement and major repair of existing old narrow bridges for ensuring safety iii. Road safety to be properly addressed in road design and enforced in traffic management iv. Developing comfortable road network to enhance the tourism industry v. Maintenance needs a higher priority, more resources, improved management reform and better quality standard vi. Institutional reform, and vii. Digitalization of RHD activities As such, issues related to road network have been identified by RHD, which are follows: The Roads and Highways Department (RHD) http://www.bangladeshdir.com The Bangladesh Road master plan period of 2005-25
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Infrastructure - The Way to Bangladesh’s Heart Geo-strategically, Bangladesh 's location is very significant and sensitive in terms of Pan-Asian continental surface connectivity. It has the potentiality to be a focal connecting point between SARRC & BIMSTEC countries. The issues like intra & inter-country connectivity, export and growth centers facilitating infrastructure, Asian Highway, Trans Asian Railway Network etc. are the important emerging issues of the country’s surface transport strategy http://www.asiatradehub.com/bangladesh/roads.asp Describes the Rising Demand For The Transport In Bangladesh
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IDA has contributed to the improvement of rural connectivity in 21 districts. The assistance helped to improve and maintain more than 2500 km rural roads. An impact study by the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies shows that female employment increased by 50%, the share of farmers’ nonagricultural assets increased from 25 - 50%, and the poverty reduction rate almost doubled in the project areas. We used to eat only once a day. Now we can eat three times a day, and I can afford to educate my two children. — Shyamoli Rani Pal Rural Infrastructure:
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Roads and Highways in Bangladesh National Highway = 3,478.42 km Regional Highway = 4,221.52 km Zilla Road = 13,247.79 km Total Road Length = 20,947.73 km The cost to strengthen pavements to raise the maximum single axle load from 10 tons to 11.5 tons, the EU standard, will be justified by lowered truck operating costs, if the road carries more than about 200 trucks per day. On the Dhaka-Chittagong highway the average number of trucks is about 6,000 per day. The Roads and Highways Department (RHD) http://www.bangladeshdir.com The Road Sector – Background & Evaluation
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The Indian CV market is segmented on the basis of Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) into: Heavy Commercial Vehicles (16 tones and above) Medium Commercial Vehicles (7.51 to 16 tones) Light Commercial Vehicles (3.51 to 7.5 tones) Small Light Commercial Vehicles (Up to 3.5 to….) The China CV market is segmented on the basis of Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) into: Heavy Commercial Vehicles (16.1 tones and above) Medium Commercial Vehicles (10.1 to 16 tones) Light Commercial Vehicles (5.1 to 10 tones) Small Light Commercial Vehicles (1- 5 tones) Source: SIAM analysis Overview Of the Commercial Vehicles market
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Small Commercial Vehicle (SCV) 3,500kg to 0,00kg Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) 7,500kg to 3,500kg Medium Commercial Vehicle (MCV) 15,500kg to 7,500kg Heavy Commercial Vehicle (HCV) 40,000kg to 15,500kg
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Containers,Tankers Coal,Timber, Edible Oil, Bitumen, Material–Sand,Brick,Stone Etc. Auto Parts Construction fertilizers Cement Bulk & Bags, food Grains, woods Heavy Goods 40,000kg to 15,500kg HCV
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Construction Material– Sand, Brick, Stone Etc. Garments goods, fabrics, Cotton Industrial raw Material Packaging Product Vegetable & Seed Medium Goods 15,500kg to 7,500kg MCV
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Agricultural Produce, Poultry Products Light Industrial & Construction goods parcels, Plastic Products etc Packaging Product fisheries & Fruit Vegetables Light Goods 7,500kg to 3,500kg LCV
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Electronics & General Goods Furniture & Home Apparel Home Delivery goods Consumer Goods Plastic Products Small Goods 3,500kg to 0,00kg SCV
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01.Nitol Motors Limited : Sole Distributor of TATA 02.Ifad Autos Limited : Sole Distributor of Ashok Leyland 03. Runner Motors Ltd : Sole Distributor of Eicher Mini Truck 04. Energypac power generation Ltd : Sole Distributor of JAC 05. Uttara Motors Limited : Sole Distributor of Isuzu,SwarajMazda, Suzuki, FAW 06. RANGS Motors Limited : Sole Distributor of Eicher Heavy Truck Mitsubishi Fuso Truck, Mahindra Ltd. Main Distributor
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