1. Meeting the capacity challenge: The case for new lines Iain Coucher Chief Executive, Network Rail

2. Imagine… Leaving Glasgow at 6:45am and arriving in central London at 9am

3. VT Placeholder: Show film

4. We have a successful, thriving railway 1.3bn passenger journeys a year – the highest since 1946 Most punctual railway ever recorded More trains than ever before The safest form of transport High levels of passenger satisfaction Growth on the existing network is forecast to nearly double over the next 30 years

5. £12bn worth of Network Rail capacity schemes underway Birmingham New Street King’s Cross Thameslink

6. Tube upgrades Crossrail Other schemes

7. By 2025 some lines will be full up In summer 2008 Network Rail launched its new lines study to look into how to relieve congestion between: –London to the North West and Scotland –London to the Midlands –London to the North East and Scotland –London to Bristol and South Wales The need to plan for new lines

8. The role of Network Rail We have a mandate to plan to meet future demand – in short, medium and long term To get short term planning right, we need a good understanding of the railway in 30-40 years This means looking at planning new capacity to meet rising demand

9. Capacity crunch The upgrade to the West Coast main line that has added over 30% more capacity, however by 2020 this route fills up first London to West Midlands and North West is the most critical corridor with the biggest potential market

10. By 2030 peak hour demand into London Euston is 18,500 passengers an hour Or an eight-lane motorway in both directions 113 domestic flights an hour

11. Route options for London to Midlands and the North West

12. Best option Option 1.0b has the best business case –Main line from London to Manchester with diverging main line to Birmingham –Services between all three cities Still costs more than the revenue and benefits generated Having built this infrastructure you need to get better value from it

13. Looking at extra destinations Liverpool Warrington Preston Glasgow Edinburgh Leeds

14. The case for Leeds and the North East London to Leeds via Manchester is a compromise To get a comparable step change in journey time improvements from London, Leeds and the north east needs a dedicated line A dedicated line would mean a Leeds-London journey time of 70mins against 1hr 50mins via Manchester and 2hr 8mins today Large incremental costs – barrier of the Pennines Next, we will develop a business case for London to North East We are developing other solutions to improve trans-Pennine connectivity

15. Expanded options Self-contained lines to Liverpool / Warrington Adding Glasgow and Edinburgh Or combinations of self-contained lines, plus running on existing network Option MB1.6 has best benefit: cost ratio

16. Expanded options Our preferred option is 1.4.1 with a marginally reduced BCR but the highest value to the economy Also enables a complete recast of West Coast timetable to strengthen commuter, regional and freight traffic Uses all potential capacity generating more revenue and bigger benefits

17. What about Heathrow? There is a good transport case to connect to Heathrow Without Heathrow connection 2.8m air passengers per year shift to rail Heathrow connectivity would attract 1m extra passengers to rail through modal shift from air and car

18. What about Heathrow?

19. Connecting with HS1 Efficient and effective interchange with HS1 can increase ridership of new line by up to 0.5m air passengers, without any cost Physical connection with HS1 could further increase passengers by 0.3m but at significant cost

20. The technology Performance modelling based on 200mph trains Over time train performance will increase meaning even more reduced journey times

21. The core proposition 51055 Edinburgh Preston Liverpool Warrington Manchester Birmingham London Glasgow Number of carriages 2354615113121110987161714 5 18 10

22. Journey times slashed London JourneysCurrent Fastest Journey TimeNew Lines Journey Time London to Manchester2hr 7min1hr 6min London to Birmingham1hr 22min46min London to Liverpool2hr 8min1hr 23min London to Preston2hr1hr 13min London to Glasgow4hr 31min2hr 16min London to Edinburgh4hr 13min2hr 9min

23. The business case Cost element Cost (£m 2009 prices) Construction Cost (£m)15,086 Non Construction Cost (£m)5,403 Total20,489 Optimism Bias @ 66% (£m)13,523 Total including optimism bias (£m)34,012 £m per route km44.0 Benefit: cost ratio estimated at 1.8:1

24. Cost comparisons Channel Tunnel Rail Link Section 1&2 average Channel Tunnel Rail Link Section 1 New Line Option 1.4.1 - Including Optimism Bias HSL Zuid, Holland TGV Taiwan, Taiwan Shinkansen - Hokuriku Naples-Rome and Florence - Turin, Italy TGV Korea, Korea Shinkansen - Joetsu, Japan Shinkansen - Thoku, Japan ICE Frankfurt - Cologne, Germany TGV Mediteranee, France TGV Atlantique, France AVE Madrid - Lerida, Spain £ per km 0102030405060

25. Benefits for existing West Coast destinations A complete recast of the timetable enabling more services between major towns on the route and more direct, faster services to London such as Milton Keynes, Nuneaton and Northampton New capacity created for freight trains New markets developed not presently served with direct services to London

26. Further benefits It has been estimated that wider economic benefits could be worth between £3bn and £6bn to the UK economy with the introduction of the new line The reduction in travel time between city centres for users of the new line is the equivalent of 50m hours per annum by 2030 The West Coast main line recast will in turn lead to journey time benefits equivalent to 6m hours per annum by 2030 The introduction of a new line would provide an additional 9,100 seats an hour into London

27. The environmental case An estimated reduction in CO2 emissions of almost 300,000 tonnes per annum could be achieved by 2030, through reduced air, car and lorry travel The total reduction in car kilometre is estimated at 673m vehicle km and 71m freight vehicle km by 2030 The new line is estimated to lead to a decrease in air journeys of 3.6m per annum by 2030

28. Study contributors AEAT Alstom Association of Train Operating Companies DB Regio DB Schenker Department for Transport East Midlands Trains Eurostar Fieldworks and KGS First Group Transport for London Transport Scotland UIC, International Union of Railways Virgin Trains Welsh Assembly Government Greengauge 21 Hitachi Leeds University, Institute for Transport Studies Manchester Airport Rail Industry Association Roadchef Robert Watson Associates Steer Davies Gleave (study specialist consultants)

29. Conclusions Demand for rail continues to grow –Even with planned interventions some lines will fill up soon A new line between London and Scotland will address the capacity issue and deliver; –A step change in journey times between major cities –Revenue growth for our customers –Wider economic and environmental benefits Network Rail will continue to develop business case for further new lines