1. PC05 Low Hydro Study Results
June 24, 2015
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

2. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Overview
Production Cost Model
Assumptions
E3 Assumptions
Geographic Variations
Capacity Added for Study
Results
Generation Change
Dump Energy
Path Flows
Scope
Key Questions
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

3. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
PC04 Low Hydro
Central Question: How does production cost, generation dispatch, and transmission utilization change under Low hydro conditions?
Change to starting input assumptions:
Loads – none
Transmission System – None
Generation – 2011 hydro data substituted for median hydro data (2005)
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

4. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Generation Change
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

5. Production Cost and CO2 Annual Generation by Category (MWh) Category
2024 PC
2024 PC4 High Hydro
Difference
Conventional Hydro
238,955,786
176,221,457
(62,734,329)
Energy Storage
3,592,412
3,724,575
132,163
Steam - Coal
227,755,474
233,593,115
5,837,641
Steam - Other
2,637,910
3,303,766
665,856
Nuclear
56,254,786
56,391,450
136,663
Combined Cycle
278,957,656
319,645,934
40,688,278
Combustion Turbine
51,794,128
65,251,516
13,457,388 IC
818,909
1,966,553
1,147,644
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
17,916,707
17,914,397
(2,310)
Biomass RPS
19,581,287
21,475,649
1,894,362
Geothermal
31,937,139
31,908,321
(28,818)
Small Hydro RPS
4,360,054
2,702,419
(1,657,635)
Solar
38,182,163
38,127,504
(54,659)
Wind
74,232,546
74,272,426
39,881
== Total ==
1,050,342,237
1,049,864,361
(477,876)
Cost (M$)
22,843
25,715
2,872
CO2 Cost (M$)
1,730
1,941
211
CO2 Amount (MMetrTn)
362
394 31
Dump Energy (MWh)
357,799
375,753
17,954
Pumping (PL+PS) (MWh)
15,426,008
15,597,348
171,340
Top section is the numerical part of the graph shown on the previous slide
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

6. Changes in Total Annual Generation
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

7. Generation Change By Subregion
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

8. Generation Change by State
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

9. Results – Most Heavily Utilized Paths
“Most Heavily Utilized” = A path that meets any one of the following criterion (10-year plan utilization screening):
U75 > 50%
U90 > 20%
U99 > 5%
Uxx = % of year that flow is greater than xx% of the path limit
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

10. Results – Changes in Transmission Utilization
Most Heavily Utilized Paths
P01 Alberta-British Columbia
P03 Northwest-British Columbia
P08 Montana to Northwest
P11 West of Crossover
P10 West of Colstrip
PC05
Low Hydro
Path
75%
90%
99%
-P60 Inyo-Control 115 kV Tie
77.29%
54.62%
38.05%
-P52 Silver Peak-Control 55 kV
46.91%
31.47%
0.00%
P01 Alberta-British Columbia
12.11%
7.63%
5.71%
P15 Midway-LosBanos
9.51%
3.31%
1.39%
-P83 Montana Alberta Tie Line
8.41%
3.15%
1.62%
-P76 Alturas Project
7.15%
3.03%
P65 PDCI *NEW*
P66 COI *NEW*
P16 Idaho-Sierra *NEW*
P29 Intermountain-Gonder
P27 IPP DC Line
P60 Inyo-Control
P26 Northern-Southern California
P47 – Southern New Mexico
P45 SDG&E-CFE
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

11. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Results
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

12. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Results
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

13. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Path Flows
Path 3 there is an increase in the path flow but still is not reaching any of the U ratings
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

14. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Path Flows
Path 17 the path flow is increased slightly throughout the entire year
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

15. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Findings
Decreased hydro availability results in an increase of production cost, and carbon emissions.
The reduced hydro availability results in an decrease in hydro production to serve WECC wide load.
Transmission impacts are minimal.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

16. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Contact Info
Dan Beckstead
Western Electricity Coordinating Council