1. Brazil: Cycles of (Gradual) Political Change Max Cameron Poli 332

2. Historical Periods 1.Monarchy rather than anarchy (1822-1891) 2.Late establishment of oligarchic republic (1891- 1930) 3.Populism, Estado Novo and fragile democracy (1930-1964) 4.The bureaucratic-authoritarian state (1964- 1985) 5.Redemocratization and moderate neoliberal reforms (1985-2002) 6.Left turn (and denouement) (2002-2016)

3. Stylized Facts Monarchy Oligarchy Populism BA state Re-democratization Agro-export economy ISI & Incorporation NeoliberalismLeft turns 19 th C to 1930 1930-1960 1960-1980 Exhaustion of ISI 1980-2000 2000- Left turn

4. Colonial Period Differences with the rest of the region: – Portugal less developed than Spain – Little emphasis on education, no printing press in Brazil – Slavery a dominant institution, not completely abolished until 1888

5. 1. Independence and Monarchy, 1822 No period of anarchy. September 1822, colonial ruler Pedro declared independence. He was crowned Emperor Pedro I. This commencement of national life under the rule of the same individual who governed in the name of Portugal allowed Brazil to avoid the vacuum of legitimate authority that plagued the rest of the countries of the region.

6. Social Classes Brazil was dominated by by the landowners from the Northeast, Rio de Janerio, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo. The export economy was dominated by agriculture (sugar, tobacco, cotton) and mining (gold and diamonds). Local merchants formed a bourgeois nucleus, but played no role in exports. Little manufacturing. Pyramidal, dualistic society: 95 percent of population (slaves, farmers, artisans) excluded

7. Politics under Monarchy Conflict between central authorities and provinces Two main parties: Liberal (based in Sao Paulo, Minas Gerias and Rio Grande do Sul) who supported decentralization and Conservatives (Bahia, Pernambuco, Rio de Janerio) favored centralized bureaucracy. Gradual evolution towards a parliamentary constitutional monarchy Paraguayan war (1865) won, but hurt monarchy and caused unrest

8. Excursus: Abolition of Slavery 1860s abolitions movement begin to gather widespread support. 1871: “Law of the Free Womb.” Free born child required to render service to the mother’s master until the age of twenty. 1885: “Sexagenerian Law.” Freed all slaves over 65. Slaves also resisted. By 1887 there were massive escapes from plantations, especially in Sao Paulo 1888: “Golden Law”. The struggle ended officially, with the total and immediate abolition without compensation.

9. 2. Establishment of Oligarchic Republic November 1889, junior officers, lead a coup against the emperor. The transition from the empire was not a social revolution and was virtually bloodless. Constitution of 1891: Brazil becomes a republic and oligarchic democracy – Military plays larger role – More decentralized – Pact among governors The economic autonomy of the states facilitated industrial development in regions such as Sao Paulo Rise of “Sao Paulo dynasty.” Sao Paulo coffee producers become leading element in the governing coalition

10. Coronelismo The republic did not change the basic facts of life in traditional rural areas. Colonelismo was Brazil’s version of caudillo rule in rural areas Rural political machines controlled to countryside. Electoral fraud usually occurred in the countryside, where landowners hired agents manipulated semi-literate voters. Cooptation of middle sectors through clientelism in the urban areas

11. Early Industrialization Although the economy was based on raw material exports (Coffee, sugar, cotton, rubber, cacao) early industrialization occurred (even before World War I, II, or the crash in 1929) Occurred at the same time as agro-export growth, under protective tariffs Over production of coffee (Brazil supplied most of the world market) caused a gradual shift towards the investment in industry

12. Social Question Growth of industry in the 1920s created opportunities for better organization of the urban labor unions. But unions remained weak and were targets or repression by employers and police Migration from country to city, and international migration

13. 3. Populism under Getulio Vargas, (1930-1945, 1951-1954) Vargas takes power after an armed rebellion and coup in 1929-30. End of oligarchy (landlords lose power). Introduces Estado Novo (a corporatist state) Constitution of 1934 – Federal structure – Free elections – Judicial independence – Welfare – Labour code Vargas sought to accelerate economic development, incorporate labor, strengthen state capacity, and encourage popular participation within corporatist structures

14. Incorporation of Labor Creation of two new Ministries: Labor, Industry, and Commerce; Education and Health Unions incorporated and controlled by the state. 1931 was created the law of unionization – which allowed unions under the control of the ministry of work. Creation of “leis trabalhistas”: Eight hour work, minimal wage, holidays, pension system and social security.

15. Development Strategy Import substitution industrialization replaces coffee exports as economic driver Industry declined then recovered in the 1930s Rapid industrialization (5.4 percent) from 1940-45. This was the most striking accomplishment of Vargas era. Industrialization did not result in a sudden replacement of the dominant coffee led agricultural elite by the urban industrial sector or middle class. Instead the end of the coffee oligarchy resulted in a state not exclusively serving the interests of any one socioeconomic sector

16. End of Vargas’ Estado Novo Removed by military in 1945 by coup d'etat End of World War II: victory of democratic forces around the world United States that wanted Brazil have a government more attuned to their interests Elections in 1945: re-establishment of representative institutions. New parties formed. Vargas makes come-back in 1950; 1954 commits suicide.

17. Populist Reformism and Moderate Perception of Threat (1956-1964  Kubitschek (developmentalist) 1956-61  Joao Goulart’s (populist) 1961-64 Agrarian reform Nationalization of oil Against foreign investment Extension of vote to illiterates Limits on private property Educational reform Fears of Communism in aftermath of Cuban revolution

18. 4. Moderately Repressive BA State (1964-1985) BA State: Formation of a coup coalition – Relatively lower level of repression, maintained elections at state and local levels – Institutional Act no. 1. Law that established military rule – Alliance between military, technocrats, capitalists (local and international) – Emergence of weak guerrilla threat – Crisis of ISI during military rule, pursues deepening – Brazil’s economy continues to be diversified

19. Hardliners vs. Softliners Castello Branco: political parties were dissolved. Emilio Garrstazu Medici (1969-1974) considered the most repressive. Ernesto Geisel (1974-1979) was soft-liner. He announced the intention to slowly, gradually and sustained political openness process. Baptista de Oliverira Figueiredo (1979-85): Amnesty Law by decree. Allowing politicians, artists, and other exiled Brazilians to return. In 1979 government approved law allowing parties to re- organize In 1978 in Sao Paulo. Emergence of Lula Human rights becomes issue, especially for Catholic Church Business opposition to economic mismanagement

20. 5. Redemocratization (1985-89) Tancredo Neves elected 1985, died and was replaced by Jose Sarney (1985-89) Constitution of 1989 – Congress served as constitutional assembly – Features of the constitution Long & detailed Social rights emphasized Recognition of municipalities Policy conferences Presidential system with strong decree powers for the president

21. Neoliberalism Neoliberal period brief and moderated – Fernando Collor de Mello, 1989-92 Tried to launch ambitious plan to liberalize economy but was accused of corruption and impeached – Itamar Franco, 1992-95 (caretaker) – Fernando Henrique Cardoso 1995-2002 Elected for popularity with Plan Real which brought inflation under control Cardoso stabilized the economy but Brazil was hit by the 1999 financial crisis and forced to devalue

22. The Key to Cardoso’s success?

23. Mild left turn: Lula of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers’ Party or PT) elected 2002, governs until 2010; Dilma Rousseff 2010 – 2016 Lula 2002: Although a product of the political left and grassroots movements, Lula moved to the center during his final campaign in order to draw support from the urban middle class and the international community Lula embraced an orthodox monetary policy, meant to further economic stability, control inflation, and give the Central Bank autonomy, despite complaints of growing fiscal negligence. The administration succeeded in winning Congress’ approval, albeit at the cost of losing part of his support base. 6. Brazil’s Left Turn

24. Participatory innovations “Democracy is more inclusive and participatory than ever before.” – Hagopian (p. 124). Fome Zero food distribution program was an operational failure, so Lula’s administration expanded Bolsa Familia, which rewarded poor families for sending their children to school and providing inoculations. In the economy, President Lula successfully reduced poverty and boosted the minimum wage, practically eliminating the foreign debt and earning the trust of foreign investors. Participatory budgeting (starts in Porto Alegre) Policy Conferences “Lava Jato” scandal and backlash Impeachment of Dilma

25. Lessons Little anarchy, mild repression: pattern of accommodation and bargaining, persistence of democracy at state and local levels Gradualism: abolition, late onset of republic, late democratization, gradual re- democratization, mild left turn Size: ISI and diversification Major challenge: corruption and a weak state