1. ILUTE Urban Land Use Models: An Overview E.J. Miller Bahen-Tanenbaum Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering Director, Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre University of Toronto Land Use Model Workshop New York Metropolitan Transportation Council University Transportation Research Centre Region 2 New York, May 1, 2009

2. ILUTE Presentation Outline 1.Urban Form – Transportation Interactions 2.Need for Integrated Urban Models 3.Key Design Elements & Issues 4.Current State

3. ILUTE Transportation and urban form are fundamentally linked. How we build our city directly determines travel needs, viability of alternative travel modes, etc. Transportation, in turn, influences land development and location choices of people & firms.

4. ILUTE Factors Influencing Land Use Impact (Knight & Trygg, 1977)

5. ILUTE To understand these complex transportation – urban form interactions and to analyze the wide variety of policies (transportation, housing, etc.) that affect the urban system requires integrated, comprehensive models of transportation and land use. Land Development Location Choice Activity Schedules Activity Patterns Transportation Network Automobile Ownership Travel Demand Network Flows URBAN ACTIVITY SYSTEMTRANSPORTATION SYSTEM Demographics Regional Economics Government Policies INPUTS

6. ILUTE Long- & Short-Run Interactions Land Development Location Choice Activity Schedules Activity Patterns Transportation Network Automobile Ownership Travel Demand Network Flows LONG-RUN ACCESSIBILITY INTERACTIONS SHORT-RUN ACTIVITY/TRAVEL INTERACTIONS

7. ILUTE Example Application: The Toronto Waterfront What would be the impact of tearing down the Gardiner Expressway? What if it wasn’t replaced? What transit options might exist? What would be the impact on population & employment distributions? … 2005 evolve 20102030_B 2030_C branch and evolve Base Year Event Year Target Year (Policy Option B) Target Year (Policy Option C) 2030_A Target Year (Policy Option A)

8. ILUTE Example Application: Places to Grow What will be the impact of a greenbelt on: housing density & prices? employment concentration? transit viability? congestion? emissions? …

9. ILUTE Example Application What would be the impact of the proposed congestion pricing scheme on Manhattan’s economic activity system and travel patterns?

10. ILUTE Land Use Models Formal models which try to capture the transportation - land use interaction are usually referred to as land use models, integrated land use - transportation models, or integrated urban models. Such models have existed since the early 1960’s. Histrocially, they have had mixed success, with the result that, until recently few urban areas used formal models. Integrated urban models, however, are increasingly being developed and used in the U.S. and elsewhere.

11. ILUTE Integrated Models, Typical Sub-models

12. ILUTE Need for Land Use Models Without an integrated analysis of both land use and transportation, may well “miss” key system responses, and/or over/under-estimate the system responses which are being explicitly modelled. Many “transportation” issues (especially with respect to sustainability) have their origins (and perhaps their solutions as well) in land use design.

13. ILUTE Policy Options Demand Management Supply Management Land Use Management Community Goals Policy Tools: fiscal regulatory operational infrastructure marketing education information dissemination

14. ILUTE Need for Integrated Models VKT Time Base Year Forecast Horizon Historical Trend Projection Dynamic, path-dependent response to policy initiatives A complete representation of short- & long-range system responses to policies is required if alternatives to “business as usual” are to be found.

15. ILUTE Policy Inputs into an Integrated Urban Model

16. ILUTE Non-Modelling Approaches In the absence of formal land use models (the usual case), scenario-based extrapolations of population and employment by zone are used to provide inputs to the travel demand modeling system.

17. ILUTE Non-Modelling Approaches, cont’d Problems include: Scenarios are often unrealistic, and/or internally inconsistent Scenarios are often inconsistent with the transportation system Lack of “feedback”/interaction between land use and transportation sectors Lack of detail in attributes of population & employment Lack of policy sensitivity Separation of land use planning from transportation planning

18. ILUTE Flows, Times, etc.External Impacts Land Use Location Choice Auto Ownership Activity/Travel & Goods Movement Demographics Regional Economics Government Policies Transport System Road & Transit Assignment Models Key Components of an Integrated Model

19. ILUTE Design Issues Physical System Time Space (land) Building stock Transportation networks Active Agents Persons Households Firms (Employment) Processes Land development Location choices Job market Demographics Regional economics Automobile holdings Activity / travel demand Network performance

20. ILUTE Performance Issues Theoretical soundness Policy sensitivity Precision (spatial, temporal) Validation Feasibility Computation requirements Data requirements Technical support requirements Cost Applicability Ease of input preparation Model run time Output / presentation capabilities Portability / transferability Flexibility / adaptability Usability

21. ILUTE Policy Capabilities Pricing Infrastructure and services Regulatory Education / marketing Transportation Pricing Infrastructure and services Regulatory Education / marketing Land Use Pricing Infrastructure and services Regulatory Education / marketing Other

22. ILUTE Treatment of Time economic conditions economic interactions goods & services movements household travel transport conditions route choice year t economic changes; space changes; migration changes in transport supply economic conditions economic interactions goods & services movements household travel transport conditions route choice year t+1 Source: Hunt & Donnelly (2002)

23. ILUTE Modeling the Housing Market Vacancies Prices Developers’ decisions to build new housing Type (structure/tenure) Location Number of units Size/quality/price range Occupants’ decisions to move Active households search among selected vacancies Decision to buy/rent Decision to sell/lease Households Developers/Landlords Policies Zoning … Interest Rates … Infrastructure Investment …

24. ILUTE General Principles 1. Data first. 2. Develop/improve travel demand model. 3. A step-by-step approach is required. 4. An explicit plan is required.

25. ILUTE Requirements for Model Development/Improvement 1. Data. 2. Staff. 3. Commitment to model development, separate from daily operations. 4. Managerial/institutional commitment. 5. Include modelers in decision-making. 6. Understand the proper role of models. 7. Don’t underestimate or dismiss models. 8. Don’t settle for too little. 9. Don’t accept the status quo. 10. Move incrementally, but move towards the long run.

26. ILUTE Steps Towards the Ideal Model Travel Demand Model Land Use Model No Transit / mode split None Activity + Judgement DRAM or equivalent Logit allocation w/ price signals Fully integrated market-based model First Path ‘ Advanced ’ Path Transit / no logit (24 hr) Logit / peak-period assignment Activity-based Short-term goal Ideal Model Long-term goal

27. ILUTE Policy Capabilities of Current Integrated Models

28. ILUTE Current State Land use models are in operational use in many U.S. cities, and under development in many others. Statewide models also exist. 3 primary “current generation” models in use in the U.S.: –Metroscope –PECAS –UrbanSim

29. ILUTE Current State, cont’d Other GIS-based land use mapping/scenario- building systems exist (UPLAN, PLACE 3 S, etc.), but these are not full-blown integrated model systems. Commercial transportation modeling software vendors are reportedly developing land use modules, but these are not yet on the market.

30. ILUTE Current State, cont’d Land use modeling has been shown to be practical and to make a difference in policy analysis. In Oregon, for example, the statewide model has been used to assess freeway options and to design a statewide bridge rehabilitation program.

31. ILUTE Current State, cont’d While U.S. legislation does not mandate use of land use models, it strongly encourages it. Failure to consider land use options and effects can lead to law suits. More important, failure to consider land use effects can lead to unexpected outcomes and poor investment & other policy decisions.

32. ILUTE A Final Word Land use models do not make decisions and do not replace planning design. They are another “voice at the table” that allows planners to explore the likely consequences of their policies (infrastructure investment, pricing, zoning, etc.) by tracing the complex chain of spatial processes (travel, auto ownership, location choice, land development) that respond over time to these policies.

33. ILUTE Any questions? Flows, Times, etc.External Impacts Land Use Location Choice Auto Ownership Activity/Travel & Goods Movement Demographics Regional Economics Government Policies Transport System Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model Thank you for your attention.