1. THE BREXIT EFFECT POST-REFERENDUM ACITA – 19 TH OCTOBER Stephen Booth

2. BREXIT: DIRECTION OF TRAVEL? Prime Minister’s Conservative Party Conference speech: “Let me be clear, we are not leaving the EU today to give up control of immigration again and we are not leaving only to return to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.” Brexit means being “a country that is no longer part of a political union with supranational institutions that can override national parliaments and courts.” European Council President Donald Tusk: “The only real alternative to a ’hard’ Brexit is no Brexit.”

3. KEY DECISIONS FACING UK AND EU LEADERS How important is a UK-EU geo-strategic partnership? How to continue political cooperation in many fields? Internal / External security Foreign policy What economic relationship for UK? Retain customs union with the EU? Seek to retain Single Market membership? Which immigration arrangements? What other areas of cooperation do we want to maintain? Science, education and research

4. UK PRIORITIES: TRADE & DIPLOMACY 1.UK will need to negotiate new arrangements with EU in several key fields:  Trade (goods, services, agriculture, fishing, etc)  A new immigration/free movement regime?  Security and counterterrorism cooperation  Foreign policy cooperation 2.UK-specific schedule of commitments at the WTO (with EU and then rest of WTO). 3.Secure continued access to existing EU FTAs with global trading partners. 4.Conclude new FTAs.

5. PROCESS FOR LEAVING EU – ARTICLE 50

6. UK PRIORITIES FOR EU NEGOTIATIONS Resolve key trade-offs to emerge from referendum: Single market access/immigration control Single market access/greater sovereignty Avoid EU salami-slicing short-term and long-term issues. A (possibly lengthy) transitional period to avoid WTO cliff-edge and two-year ticking clock under Article 50. Keep discussion at highest political level and out of hands of Commission/European Parliament for as long as possible.

7. UK & ROW: SET THE WTO BASELINE UK needs its own WTO tariff and quota schedule – relevant to all other negotiations (including with EU). Easiest option likely to be to inherit EU tariffs and apportion EU quotas. Agriculture the most complex issue. UK does not yet have FTAs with several high-tariff countries : India (13.5% MFN), Brazil (13.5%) and China (9.6%). China is the largest (9.4%) of these market for UK goods, then India (2.1%) and then Brazil (0.6%). Only eleven of the 33 EU FTAs currently in force cover services

8. CONCLUSIONS UK-EU relationship is & should be about more than just trade. UK needs to establish its priorities – global liberaliser or not? WTO and RoW likely to show more goodwill if the former. New UK trade policy doesn’t have to be a zero- sum game – goal should be to minimise the width of Channel and narrow the Atlantic and Pacific.

9. www.openeurope.org.uk @OpenEurope info@openeurope.org.uk