1. Realizing the Transport We Want: What will it take? Jose Luis Irigoyen Director of Transport and ICT, World Bank World Conference on Transport Research July 10-14, 2016 – Shanghai, China

2. What does the future of transport look like 15 years from now? What are the 5 top defining trends shaping the future of transportation?

3. World Transportation needs are growing rapidly RoadRail Freight Passengers The volume of transported passengers and freight has exploded in developing countries Global transport volumes will continue to grow Source: 2016 Outlook, International Transport Forum Source: World Bank. Development Indicators

4. Trade volumes continue to grow International freight in ton-km by corridor: 2010, 2030 and 2050 Expected growth in trade translates into freight volumes growing by 4.2% annually between 2015 – 2030 Significant changes in the geographical composition of trade Hinterland connections will face the largest capacity challenges Source: Outlook 2016, International Transport Forum

5. 5 Socio-economic shift in makeup of global population Private cars Half of world population will move into middle class by 2030 with new mobility aspirations Major achievements in reducing poverty in past 10 years, but 3% target by 2030 far from secured Source: World Bank

6. 6 Shift boosts new demands for transport Private cars Percent increase of total, transportation, and food consumption, 2013-35 Source: Hellebrandt and Mauro (2015) More attention to equity issues, vulnerable groups (age, gender) Social aspirations: broader opportunities for social outcomes, jobs, greater social accountability, quality of services (e.g., public transport) Car ownership projected to grow by 60% by 2025 Household’s spending on transportation projected to increase by factor of 3-4 in South Asia, East Asia, Africa between 2013-2035 Global population shares by age cohort, % Source: World Bank

7. Globalization 2.0: rebalancing from N to S and W to E Merchandise trade, a cartographic visualization Source: DHL Global Connectedness Index 2014DHL Global Connectedness Index 2014 Logistics and supply chains play bigger role in a country’s growth as demand for products becomes global Source: Kose and Ozburk (2014), World Bank Development Indicators, Global Monitoring Report (2015). Global Economic Integration Trade integration ratio of total imports and exports to global GDP. Financial integration: ratio of total financial inflows and outflows to global GDP Percent of GDP “You can talk about the miracle of e-commerce in China or in the world … but the logistics industry is where China’s real great miracle has been over the past decade” Jack Ma, Global Smart Logistics Summit, June 2016:

8. Globalization 2.0: emerging trends Integrated systems for synchronized use of different transport modes based on available capacity at all times Reconfiguration of trade routes in line with shifting patterns in consumption and production More balanced globalization: (1) expanding global value chains into “new territories” (countries, regions, sectors) and (2) reducing carbon footprint through shortened and improved supply chains (“lean and green” initiatives) Surface freight density – 2010 Source: 2016 Outlook, ITF Surface freight density 2030 Source: 2016 Outlook, ITF

9. 9 Rapid Urbanization: spaces are transforming faster 1980 Today Shenzhen, China From a fishing village of several thousand To a city of 9 million East Asian cities expected to triple their built up area in 20 years African cities expected to double their footprint by 2030; rapid urbanization at lower levels of income Observed and projected number of new urban residents in developed and less developed countries Million people per year Source: Brandon Fuller and Paul Romer. 2014. “Urbanization as Opportunity”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper

10. Urbanization brings opportunities, also challenges Cities with more than 10 million in 2030 Rapid pace of urbanization exacerbates institutional and resource constraints Right choices early on to avoid “lock-in”: land use and transport planning; emphasis on public transport By 2030, the population of slums may rise to over 1 billion Megacities congested even at low motorization rates Cities are learning that is not possible to build way out of congestion

11. Challenges of rapid urbanization in Africa Households in African cities face higher costs relative to their per capita GDP than in other regions. Urban transport is about 42% more expensive in African cities than other countries Connections among people as a function of population near city center Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa are crowded but physically dispersed and less well-connected than other cities Source: World Bank Regional Study on Spatial Development of African Cities. Team Led by Shomik Lal

12. ICT/digital innovation in a hyper-connected world Connectivity enables flow of goods, finance, knowledge, technology… ICTs are a powerful tool for reducing friction in such flows New ways of communicating (smart phones, digital platforms, IoT, cloud computing) New forms of mobility (e-commerce, connected vehicles, driverless vehicles, drones) Predictive power of “Big Data” analytics for better planning, increased responsiveness Source: World Economic Forum, Boston Consulting Group. May 2013 ”Connected World: Transforming Travel, Transportation and Supply Chains”

13. ICTs integrate travel demand and transport solutions 1. Card is system integrator among all modes. Open standards/ protocols enable seamless user experience 2. Card allows design of subsidy: Government of Rio pays when user needs multiple transfers 4. Subsidy scheme can be linked to social security infrastructure Bogota SITP fare card, Colombia Aadhaar card, India 3. Multi-purpose use of card can stimulate use of public transport Rio Janeiro’s smart card Planning people-centered services and monitoring performance in real time Incentivizing behavior change, “demand management” schemes, crowdsourcing Integrating services across modes, addressing affordability through smart subsidies

14. Matching power of ICTs enabling “shared economy” Ride Sourcing/Vehicle Sharing (ownership)/ Future: Automated Vehicle Sharing Huge potential of “Big Data” and data analytics in transportation Explosive growth in connected devices, social networking platforms Velocity of data aggregation/processing. Sophisticated analytics can substantially improve decision making Data privacy issues important

15. Climate Change is a threat to development “Different from past environmental problems for its scale, magnitude of its risks, urgency of global action ”. N. Stern, May 2016 Source: World Bank, Shock Waves Policy Note (2016) Climate risks need to be integrated into planning/design, prioritizing robustness and resiliency more than before Broad but uneven impacts on economy Increasing frequency, costs of natural disasters Poor countries, poor people likely to face greatest impact Climate change increasing uncertainty

16. Transport: major contributor to global CO 2 emissions At 2% yearly 1990-2012, the fastest growing source Without modal shift transport will become largest emitter. Emissions projected to nearly double by 2050 without action Outlook 2016, ITF Transport currently contributes almost 23% of energy-related global emissions and rising… Lifecycle CO2 emissions, 2010 Yet until recently, transport was absent from almost all scenarios on how to stabilize concentration of GHGs in atmosphere

17. Global efforts on sustainable mobility have so far been insufficient ​ Over 1 billion people have no access to an all-weather road billion people 1 70 percent of fuel energy lost in engine and driveline inefficiencies 70 17 Number of vehicles on the road expected to double to 2 billion by 2050 1 Road death rate per 100,000 population increased 32% in Low Income Countries (from 18.3 in 2010 to 24.1 in 2013) 32 Transport accounts for 23% of energy- related GHG emissions and this share is increasing % in road deaths % GHG emissions 23 % fuel energy billion cars Big challenges ahead to put mobility on sustainable path

18. Large co-benefits from truly “sustainable mobility” 18 Size and relevance of co benefits – they reinforce each other Land and infrastructure policies today determine future travel, fuel use Choice is between pathways that exacerbate climate risks and pathways that reduce climate risk and foster “better growth” (inclusive, green) Cost in GDP share (OECD Averages) Congestion8.5% Local pollution0.4% Global pollution 1-10% Transport GHG emissions from 23% today to up to 33% by 2050 Accidents1.5-2% Noise0.3% Car dependency and urban sprawl 5-7% (developed countries) 2.5% (developing countries) Current trends contribute to costly social externalities Planning for low carbon, countries have a choice

19. 19 Choices will lock-in lifestyles, energy use, vulnerability AtlantaBarcelona Population (million)5.255.33 Area (sq km)4280162 CO2 emission tons/year7.50.7 Barcelona Atlanta Bogota Los Angeles

20. How the global agreements reached in 2015 impact the way we frame and implement a truly sustainable transport agenda?

21. SDGs: Major increase in global development ambition 21 SDGs shift focus to absolute and sustainable progress across a broader array of areas (from 8 under MDGs): – 17 goals and 169 targets to be attained by all countries around the world – Overarching goal to end poverty, equitable development, sustainability

22. SDGs and Transport: The opportunity for a broader vision 22 Five targets directly involve transport: – Halve number of deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents (3.6); – Double global rate of improvement in energy efficiency (7.3); – Develop sustainable and resilient regional and trans-border infrastructure …with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all (9.1); – Provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport, notably expanding public transport (11.2); – Rationalize inefficient fossil fuels subsidies (12.c) Attaining at least another six targets will critically depend on it: – Eradicating extreme poverty (1.1), agriculture productivity (2.1), air pollution (3.9), sustainable cities (11.6), reduction of food loss (12.3), climate change adaptation and mitigation (13.1)… Mainstreaming of transport across SDGs underscores its importance as enabler of other sectors’ achievements

23. A global health crisis: 1.25 million deaths per year, 20-50 million injured (since 2007) Top cause of death 15-29 years old An equity issue: 50% of fatalities vulnerable groups: pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists SDG3: Road Safety one of the targets Source: WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety 2015 What will it take for developing countries to reach the tipping point? Managing for results DGT, Spain. Fatalities 1980-2013

24. 24 Rural Access Index Share of rural population living within 2 km of an all-season road. 2006 results: 1 bn people unconnected to an all-weather road (based on household surveys) 2016 update based on geospatial data Emphasis on equity: SDG9 inclusive access

25. Measuring access to opportunities: Number of jobs accessible within 1 hour of starting point Emphasis on equity: SDG11 inclusive access in Cities Measuring access under Target 11.2.1: Proportion of population that has convenient access to public transport

26. SDG 11: Why special focus on cities? Urbanization and GDP per capita Spur Economic Growth Cities generate 80% of global output (500, 60% of global income growth) Growing welfare costs of traffic congestion Source: Shyam Menon, World Bank/EMBARQ (WRI),Jan 2007 Tackle Local/Global Environment Urban outdoor pollution linked to 4 million premature deaths Cities contribute 70% of energy –related GHG emissions Bring Inclusive Development Growth of slums (urban poverty, social exclusion) Bottom quintile spends disproportionate share of income on public transport

27. Paris Agreement at COP21 of UNFCCC Global agreement to limit global warming to well below 2 o C and make efforts to limit increase to 1.5 o C (December 2015) – Countries encouraged to reach peak GHG emissions as soon as possible and achieve rapid reductions thereafter to “net zero” between 2050-2099 – NDCs: reviewing and strengthening them every 5 years, starting in 2020 – Adaptation as important as mitigation actions – International collaboration on low carbon research to enhance willingness to cooperate Many actors have made voluntary financial and operational commitments: >70% countries are targeting transport in their NDCs COUNTRIES >80 C40 cities are tackling climate change and climate risk CITIES >260 transportation companies pledged to reduce GHG emissions PRIVATE SECTOR >$175 billion committed for sustainable transport from 2013 to 2022 MDBs 15 initiatives have committed to reducing carbon footprint across transport modes CIVIL SOCIETY

28. LPAA/PPMC transport initiatives at COP21 Airport Carbon Accreditation: Reduce carbon emissions & increase airport sustainability (50 airports carbon neutral by 2030 Aviation’s Climate Action Takes Off: Collaborative climate action across the air transport sector C40 Clean Bus Declaration: Raising ambition and catalyzing markets Global Fuel Economy Initiative: 100 countries 50 by 50. Double fuel economy of vehicles by 2050 Global Green Freight Action Plan: Reduce climate and health impacts of goods transport ITS for Climate: Use Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) to deliver big results at a small cost Low Carbon Road and Road Transport Initiative (PIARC). Climate adaptation policies. MobiliseYourCity: 100 cities engaged in sustainable urban mobility planning to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Navigating a Changing Climate: Reduce emissions, strengthen resilience, and adapt waterborne transport infrastructure UIC Low Carbon Sustainable Rail Transport Challenge: 50% reduction of CO 2 emissions, 50% increase in rail’s share of pax by 2030 UITP Declaration on Climate Change Leader- ship: Double the market share of public transport by 2025 Urban Electric Mobility Initiative: Harness technological innovation and better urban planning to promote low carbon transport Worldwide Taxis4SmartCities: Accelerate introduction of low emission vehicles in taxis fleet by 2020 ZEV Alliance: Accelerate adoption of global zero-emission vehicles World Cycling Alliance (WCA) and European Cyclists’ Federation (ECF) Commitment: Double cycling in European cities by 2030

29. Beyond incremental action: Targets and lock-in effects “Planning INDCs to 2025-2030 is not enough! Two paths to 26-28% emissions by 2025. One is dead-end. The other a path to de-carbonization ”. J. Sachs, World Climate Summit, Washington DC, May 2017 ITF Decarbonization Project A commonly-acceptable pathway to achieve zero transport emissions by around 2050. Federate existing data and knowledge on transport to create most comprehensive model of global transport activity to date. Provide decision makers with a tool to test and gauge impact of policies and actions. Bring broad set of partners into the design of roadmap towards carbon-neutral transport.

30. What will it take to implement such agenda? What are the emerging knowledge and policy gaps that may affect good decision making?

31. Embed mitigation, adaptation and environmental concerns into supply and demand CLIMATE & ENVIRONMENT Improve the safety of mobility (SDG target 3.6 on road safety) SAFETY Secure access for all to economic and social opportunities INCLUSIVE ACCESS Increase the efficiency of transport systems and services EFFICIENCY GOALS AREAS OF FOCUS Sustainable asset management and Transportation Demand Mgmt to get the most of existing infra. Seamless inter- modal transport and logistics, lean & green initiatives Smart solutions (ICT/Big Data) Flexible “Demand Responsive Transport” Secure transport and logistic systems  Rural population living within 2 km of all weather road  Urban population with access to public transport  Equitable access for all stake- holders, including groups w/special needs ((gender, age, disabilities)  Affordable to the poor (including demand subsidies where necessary) A shared Vision for “Sustainable Mobility for all” Safe system approach to halve fatalities and injuries by 2020 Active transport (walking and cycling) to support healthy lifestyles Transport-related air pollution in cities reduced in line with WHO standards GHG emissions in line w/low carbon trajectory for de- carbonization Avoid through TOD, compact city planning/zoning Shift to rail, water- ways, high quality public transport, walking/cycling, shared- veh, TDM Improve vehicle technology, fuel efficiency stds, vehicle mtce. Make transport climate resilient

32. 32 Scale and focus essential to radically transform the movement of people and goods in the short, medium, and long-term. In the short-term: a set of “quick-wins”, such as:  Expand congestion/road and parking charging in major global cities to eliminate distortions  Modernize ageing fleets, management systems to increase efficiency, and reduce empty runs In the long-term: actions that support and accelerate the implementation of a Global Roadmap for De-Carbonization of the Transport Sector Clear policies and well-coordinated bold Actions In the medium-term: actions such as:  Dedicate funding for sustainable mobility in the Green Climate and Climate Investment funds  Rebalance urban public space in favor of NMT and expand use of public transport/mass transit  Tighten fuel economy standards to make transport cleaner/more efficient  Accelerate the introduction of carbon pricing (including reforms to eliminate fuel subsidies w/o impacting the poor  Simplify regulations and incentives to encourage private investment in efficient low carbon technologies  Roll out technologies that can drastically reduce traffic crashes and fatalities

33. Green House Gas Effect Financial Liabilities Farmland Conversion Traffic Accidents Auto Pollution Traffic Congestion GLOBAL LOCAL NATIONAL Energy Security / Fuel Prices GLOBAL LOCAL NATIONAL G-20 Toolkit on Urban Transport. Mexico, 2012 A coalition to galvanize action from public/private sector for sustainable mobility – National and city government: national/local leadership, policies – Private sector: investing in cutting edge sustainable transport, sharing data – Civil Society and academia/research: advocacy, knowledge, new solutions – International organizations: global clout, knowledge and financing A global leadership coalition to galvanize action “Sustainable Mobility” has become a local, national and global issue

34. Leaders in Urban Transport Planning. Building capacity for holistic thinking and planning through participatory problem solving and networking with practitioners New demands on skills, institutions Breaking silos - institutions that work together both vertically and horizontally towards common goals – Strong institutions set for accountability of specialized functions… – now need to coordinate across sectors and different levels of government… – ensuring coherence among strategies, policies, project selection… Urgent need to build institutional capacity at local level: – Adaptable cities must strive for solutions that are “best fit” to local conditions – Multiplication of actors as cities become more interconnected with technology (governance)

35. Some implementation challenges and knowledge gaps ahead: A strong foundation of data, indicators, and a results framework to monitor progress against SDGs and the vision goals Rigorous documentation of wider benefits, cross sector impacts of spatial development patterns and access to transport (eg., labor markets) that can support an evidence-based Theory of Change Robust modelling tools to assess impact of policies, regulations and investments on goals and underpin preparation of plans (NDCs, Road Safety Plans, etc) that support a satisfactory trajectory towards the goals More comprehensive appraisal methodologies to value all benefits/social costs of transport, and support alternative decision-making/ scenario planning approaches that better deal with deep uncertainty Better understanding of business models (eg., urban logistics) and barriers to fast adoption of smart solutions (stds, policy/regulatory constraints) Continued development of transport products that are highly competitive, less polluting and tailored to increasing customers’ expectations Better understanding of determinants of behavior to foster behavior changes in support of the goals of “sustainable mobility for all” 35 Some research areas to support sustainable mobility

36. World Bank and the transport research community 36 Some examples of joint work/collaboration include: Making qualitative data available to enable external research – Impact of Rural Accessibility improvements in Peru, with GRADE – “IeConnect for Impact” with DIME and participating research institutions – Evidence-based research under WB’s/DEC Strategic Research Program (SRP): eg., logistics, resilience of transport networks, transport and poverty reduction Developing new methodologies, joint innovative products – Burden of disease and road safety (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation); – Road Traffic Injuries Research Network to improve research capacity in LICs – Wider Economic Impacts of High-Speed Rail in China with Economic Planning and Research Institute in China and Cambridge University; – Open Transit Indicator tool with China Academy of Transport Science, MIT Partnering with academia/think tanks in knowledge sharing and capacity building programs – LUTP (Singapore Land Transport Academy, KOTI, Academy Mayors China, various universities and think tanks in more than 15 countries – Transform initiative, China – Transforming Transportation Conference with WRI; TRB, COTA Engagements in WB’s analytical work that leads to research papers

37. Thank you! jirigoyen@worldbank.org ﺷﻜﺮﺍ ﹰ 谢谢 Merci धन्यवाद Grazie ありがとうございます баярлалаа Asante Спасибо 感恩 Dziękuję Ci Gracias ขอบคุณ