1. 1 An Overview of NOAA Climate Prediction Center Briefing for China CAAC Delegation October 16, 2007 Song Yang For Wayne Higgins, Director, CPC www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

2. 2 Climate Prediction Center Mission : Serve the public by assessing and predicting short-term* climate variability, emphasizing risks of weather related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains. * “short-term” = next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year

3. 3 Weather vs. Climate Prediction Weather prediction: – –Time and region specific (e.g., mostly cloudy with a high of 80 o F at Washington, D.C. on Monday, October 1). – –Could also be for specific weather events, e.g., winter storms, hurricanes etc. – –Deterministic Climate prediction: – –“Average of weather” for a month, season, year… (e.g., 60% chance of above average temperature for Washington D.C. during October 2007). – –Forecasts can also be for the statistics of weather events for a season. – –Probabilistic

4. 4 Climate and Weather Extreme events Tropical storms Droughts/floods Tropics - El Niño, La Niña Extratropics - Jet patterns Climate Change Weather Climate Variability Climate Variability Blocking Change in weather event amplitude and frequency Teleconnections Change in climate event amplitude and frequency Global changeClimate trends

5. 5 Climate Prediction Center Activities Climate Monitoring and Nowcasting - Extending from the stratosphere to the oceans and from global to regional, what is the current state of the climate? Climate Prediction - How is the near term global and regional climate system likely to evolve? Applied Research - To develop improved reference climatologies, monitoring & forecast tools & products. Outreach – To deliver climate information, and to interact with decision makers and users to improve ways this information is delivered.

6. 6 ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Weather Prediction Products Climate Prediction Products TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth

7. 7 Climate Monitoring Monitoring ActivitiesMonitoring Activities –Primary Modes of Climate Variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...) –Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere) –Storm Tracks and Blocking –Oceanic Conditions (global) –Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US) –Drought (US, North America)

8. 8 Surface and subsurface ocean temperatures, precipitation and atmospheric circulation. Weekly updates (PDF and.ppt) available on CPC’s ENSO page. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml ENSO (El Niño and La Niña)

9. 9 Storm Track Monitoring Products  Global coverage (NH, SH, Alaska)  WX-CX linkage: Overlays of storm tracks, precipitation, low-level wind anomalies, wave heights, and sea ice http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/stormtracks/mstrack.shtml  Monitoring products (10, 30, 90 days)  Forecast products (operational and ensemble mean GFS; week 1 & 2)  Collaboration with EMC & OPC

10. 10 Monsoon Monitoring Products  Global and regional monsoons (Asian, American, African..)  Overlays of many fields (SST, soil moisture, winds, temperature, precip) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml  Monitoring products (7, 30, 90 days)  Weekly updates to US and Global Hazards forecasters and monthly updates for Monthly Climate Review

11. 11 Ocean Monitoring Products  Climatology, monthly, pentad plots and animations  SST, sea level, heat content, depth 20C, surface wind stress animations & 30 day averages

12. 12 Drought Monitor Interagency Partners: NWS/CPC USDA/JAWF NDMC NCDC Outside Experts: USGS State Climos RCCs NWS Hydros Posted on the Internet every Thursday morning NewspapersTV Stations Government officials Public

13. 13

14. 14 Fig 2. The average size of the Ozone Hole during Oct-Nov 2006 was larger than any previous year back to 1979. Fig. 1. Antarctic Ozone Hole during 2007 is smaller compared to near record size in late September 2006. Stratospheric Monitoring Products

15. 15 Monitoring (GIS Format) GIS: Geographical Information System A popular format that allows meteorological fields to be superposed over topography, rivers, roads, and cities. GIS format is preferred by many users. CPC is working with NCO to convert its monitoring and outlook products

16. 16 Climate Assessments Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, available on web)Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, available on web) ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and MS WORD)ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and MS WORD) Weekly ENSO update (.ppt, PDF versions available on web)Weekly ENSO update (.ppt, PDF versions available on web) Seasonal Climate Summaries (available on web)Seasonal Climate Summaries (available on web) Special Climate Assessments (extreme events due to persistent patterns, available on web)Special Climate Assessments (extreme events due to persistent patterns, available on web) Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency summary published in the AMS Bulletin)Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency summary published in the AMS Bulletin) Hazards Assessments (U.S., Africa, global – under development, all available on the web)Hazards Assessments (U.S., Africa, global – under development, all available on the web)

17. 17 Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Electronic (PDF): b&w, color Improved graphics Expanded suite of products  ocean products based on GODAS;  intraseasonal monitoring based on CDAS & GDAS

18. 18 ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (State of Tropical Pacific) Monthly ENSO Diagnostics Discussion and Outlook… “ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue during the next 2 months, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions equally likely thereafter.”

19. 19 U.S. Hazards Assessment Provides emergency managers, forecasters and the public advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events. Integrates existing NWS official medium (3-5 day), extended (6-10 day, week 2) and long-range (monthly and seasonal) forecasts and outlooks.

20. 20 Climate Prediction Products UV Index (updated daily) U.S. Hazards Assessments (issued Tue., adjusted Wed.-Fri.) 6-10 Day (week-1) and 8-14 Day (week-2) Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks (updated daily, 3:30pm) ENSO Diagnostics Discussion & Outlook (El Niño, La Niña updated monthly, 2 nd Thu. of the month) Monthly Outlooks for mean Precipitation and Temperature (3 rd Thu. of the month; Updated at the end of the month) Seasonal Outlooks for mean Precipitation and Temperature (3 rd Thu. of the month) Drought Outlook (3 rd Thu. of the month) Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific - issued in May, updated in Aug.)

21. 21 Climate/Weather Outlooks 16 Map of UV Index forecasts for 58 U.S. cities color coded to exposure level. Updated about 13:30 EST

22. 22 6-10 Day Outlook TemperaturePrecipitation The 6-10 Day T & P outlooks are based on a blend of statistical and dynamical model forecasts, including the North American Ensemble Forecast System (T only). Three categories are used: A (ABOVE); B (BELOW); N (NEAR NORMAL) – TEMPERATURE N (NEAR MEDIAN) – PRECIPITATION

23. 23 8-14 Day Outlook TemperaturePrecipitation The 8-14 Day T & P outlooks are based on a blend of statistical and dynamical model forecasts, including the North American Ensemble Forecast System (T only). Three categories are used: A (ABOVE); B (BELOW); N (NEAR NORMAL) – TEMPERATURE N (NEAR MEDIAN) – PRECIPITATION

24. 24 Oct Monthly Outlook TemperaturePrecipitation Outlooks combine long-term trends and soil-moisture effects, along with typical ENSO impacts when appropriate. Four categories are used: A (ABOVE); B (BELOW); N (NEAR NORMAL); EC (EQUAL CHANCES OF A, B, N)

25. 25 OND Seasonal Outlook TemperaturePrecipitation Outlooks combine long-term trends and soil-moisture effects, along with typical ENSO impacts when appropriate. Seasonal Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month (with 0.5 month lead). Four categories are used: A (ABOVE); B (BELOW); N (NEAR NORMAL); EC (EQUAL CHANCES OF A, B, N)

26. 26 Seasonal Prediction Skill (US Temperature) There is a regime dependence of forecast reliability depending on the influence of the major climate factors.

27. 27 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with 6 becoming hurricanes, including 2 major hurricanes.

28. 28 Applied Research Activities Climate diagnostics and attributionClimate diagnostics and attribution Prediction tool development/ improvementPrediction tool development/ improvement Climate monitoring tool development/ improvementClimate monitoring tool development/ improvement Model diagnostics and evaluationModel diagnostics and evaluation Atmospheric and oceanic predictabilityAtmospheric and oceanic predictability Weather/ Climate linksWeather/ Climate links TeleconnectionsTeleconnections Drought/ floods and other extreme eventsDrought/ floods and other extreme events CPC strives to accelerate the transfer of research results into operations (new and improved forecast products and services)

29. 29 Climate Test Bed THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED Climate Community Climate Community Research & Development Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission: Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

30. 30 NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed The CTB is a facility to accelerate scientific advances to operationsThe CTB is a facility to accelerate scientific advances to operations –Bridging the “Valley of Death” between research & operational service applications –Embracing the R2O and O2R paradigms The CTB emphasizes high profile science activitiesThe CTB emphasizes high profile science activities –CFS/GFS Improvements (CFSRR) –Multi-model ensembles (IMME, NMME) –Climate forecast products and applications (drought / NIDIS) Competitive Grants ProgramCompetitive Grants Program CTB-COLA Seminar SeriesCTB-COLA Seminar Series CPC-RISA ProgramCPC-RISA Program Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY09)Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY09)

31. 31 Some Common Customer Demands: 1.Improve the skill of sub-seasonal and seasonal outlooks. 2.Make them more usable and easier to understand. 3.Expand products beyond averages to extremes. 4.Give more temporal and spatial detail. Meeting Customer Needs

32. 32 Users of CPC Products Energy generation & distribution Reservoir & water management Retail industry Agriculture Recreation Emergency managers NWS Weather Forecast Offices & federal agencies (USDA, USAID, FEMA, USGS, EPA, DOE, …) General public

33. 33 Outreach Activities Products disseminated via internet and AWIPS Regular NOAA web articles about extreme climate anomalies (e.g., drought, ENSO) & predictions News releases & press conferences NCEP Product Review (annual) NWS, WFO staff training & briefings International training (e.g., African Desk) Briefings (e.g., USDA-daily, USAID-weekly, WFOs…) 32 nd Annual Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop (October, 2007, to be hosted by the Florida State University, Tallahassee)

34. 34 1. Climate and monsoons Climate extreme events Drought monitoring Monsoons Dynamical climate prediction Climate data Climate meetings Solar energy resources Climate change 2. Satellite meteorology 3. Exploratory research 4. Numerical weather prediction 5. Meteorological modernization 6. Training and participation NOAA-CMA Bilateral Program JWG-15 Session 7-12 August 2006 Silver Spring, MD, and Park City, UT

35. 35 Some 2007-08 Events of Interest State of Tropical Pacific (La Niña Conditions) and ImpactsState of Tropical Pacific (La Niña Conditions) and Impacts Drought Conditions and OutlookDrought Conditions and Outlook Southern Hemisphere Ozone HoleSouthern Hemisphere Ozone Hole 2007-08 Winter Outlook2007-08 Winter Outlook 2008 Spring Outlook2008 Spring Outlook Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlooks (and Update)Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlooks (and Update)

36. 36 Summary CPC maintains a large suite of “operational” climate prediction and monitoring productsCPC maintains a large suite of “operational” climate prediction and monitoring products CPC plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate servicesCPC plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate services The mission of CPC is to serve the nation by monitoring, assessing and predicting short-term climate variabilityThe mission of CPC is to serve the nation by monitoring, assessing and predicting short-term climate variability