1. CariCOF Climate Outlook January-February-March 2016 and April-May-June 2016 Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck caricof@cimh.edu.bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

2. Regional Climate Outlook Forums CariCOF - FCAC 2 CariCOF FCAC

3. RAINFALL caricof@cimh.edu.bb

4. JFM RAINFALL O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

5. JFM CPT probabilistic JFM rainfall forecast CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov(data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov JFM Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM(data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). JFM 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM. JFM 5.Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JFM Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). JFM. 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM. Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

6. JFM CPT probabilistic JFM Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial :468Values : 20Index : 0.094 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 1Used : 432Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 1 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.109 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 432Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.132 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 431Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.120 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 431Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 2 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

7. JFM CPT probabilistic JFM Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.104 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 1Used : 432Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 1 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.126 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 431Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 2 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.167 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 431Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

8. AMJ RAINFALL 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

9. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ rainfall forecast CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov AMJ Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). AMJ 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

10. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial :468Values : 20Index : 0.095 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 429Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.117 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 429Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.111 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 429Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 1 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.104 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes 6:Used : 429Stations : 10 CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

11. MAM CPT probabilistic MAM Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.104 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 1Used : 432Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 1 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.127 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 429Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.106 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 1Used : 429Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 1 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

12. CariCOF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January – February – March 2016 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

13. CariCOF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May - June 2016

14. PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS caricof@cimh.edu.bb

15. Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts Nine data sources (incl. GPCs): 1)IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance); 2)UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast; 3)European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts; 4)APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi=model probability forecasts; 5)WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME. 6)CFSv2 model 7)MétéoFrance Arpège model. 8)JMA model 9)Environment Canada CMC model Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T 2m outlooks (see Appendix). Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise: 1)El Niño has manifested and is now strong and still intensifying (latest SST anom. 2.3°C). Most models suggest a strong El Niño lasting into the first quarter of 2016, with an estimated overall confidence of at least 99% for JFM and >95% for AMJ for remaining in El Niño. Similarly, SSTs have been and are still above average north and east of the Caribbean Islands. Temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic eastwards are expected to warm further into AMJ (with the possible exception of areas just north of the S American continent, where El Niño is often associated with stronger trade winds and, hence, stronger upwelling). 2)Warm SSTs north and east of the islands may lead to average to above-average air moisture in the islands for JFM. This pattern is expected to intensify across the Antilles into AMJ and extenuate in the Bahamas. However, over the Antilles and increasingly towards the south and east, a pattern of drier air could be observed in JFM and AMJ, as a result of El Niño. A strong El Niño is expected to sustain increased vertical wind shear and subsidence over the Caribbean, which weakens deep convection (except the NW, especially in MAM, where the opposite is expected). 3)Global models are suggesting a shift to above-normal rainfall in Cuba and the Bahamas in JFM and in islands north of 20°N into AMJ. By contrast, a shift to below-normal rainfall is expected further south- and east-ward, with a southeast-ward movement of the area with high chances for below-normal rainfall. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

16. Probabilistic DJF rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh.edu.bb

17. Probabilistic MAM rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh.edu.bb

18. 2M MEAN TEMPERATURE caricof@cimh.edu.bb

19. JFM TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

20. JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Temperature forecast CCA experiments: NOv 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NOv (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov. JFM Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). JFM 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM. JFM 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JFM Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). JFM 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

21. JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5 Initial :73Values : 20Index : 0.170 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 50Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes:3Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.222 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5 Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.219 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 48Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes:3Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.230 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 48Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

22. JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3 Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.203 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5 Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.213 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 2Used : 48Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.219 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 48Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

23. AMJ TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

24. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov. AMJ Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). AMJ 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

25. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial :73Values : 20Index : 0.235 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 6 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.235 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.290 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 49Stations : 10Fair CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.216 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 49Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

26. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3 Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.203 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5 Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.274 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 49Stations : 10Fair NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.266 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 2Used : 49Stations : 10Fair NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

27. CariCOF Objective T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January – February – March 2016 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

28. CariCOF Objective T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May – June 2016 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

29. TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS caricof@cimh.edu.bb

30. Probabilistic DJF 2m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh.edu.bb

31. Probabilistic MAM 2m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh.edu.bb

32. MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM 2M TEMPERATURE caricof@cimh.edu.bb

33. JFM MAX. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

34. JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov. JFM Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). JFM 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM. JFM 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JFM Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). JFM 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

35. JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial :48Values : 20Index : 0.227 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 38Stations : 10Moderate ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.225 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 38Stations : 10Moderate ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.246 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.220 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

36. JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.240 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 38Stations : 10Moderate ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.248 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.236 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

37. MAM MAX. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

38. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov. AMJ Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). AMJ 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

39. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial :48Values : 20Index : 0.172 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 39Stations : 10!!Limited!! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.158 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 39Stations : 10!!Limited!! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.208 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 7 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.187 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 37Stations : 10!!Limited!! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

40. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.240 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 38Stations : 10Moderate ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.185 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 37Stations : 10!!Limited!! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 6 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.175 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 37Stations : 10!!Limited!! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 6 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

41. CariCOF Objective Maximum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January – February – March 2016 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

42. CariCOF Objective Maximum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May – June 2016 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

43. JFM MIN. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

44. JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov. JFM Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). JFM 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM. JFM 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JFM Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). JFM 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

45. JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5 Initial :48Values : 20Index : 0.107 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 7 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.187 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.157 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 37Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 6 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.180 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 37Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

46. JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.163 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.178 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 37Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.173 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 37Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

47. AMJ MIN. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

48. MAM CPT probabilistic MAM 2m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov. AMJ Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). AMJ 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

49. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial :48Values : 20Index : 0.139 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 40Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.176 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 40Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.176 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 6Used :Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 339 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.152 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

50. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.163 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.174 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.169 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 5 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

51. CariCOF Objective Minimum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January – February – March 2016 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

52. CariCOF Objective Minimum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May – June 2016 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

53. DROUGHT OUTLOOK caricof@cimh.edu.bb

54. ONDJFM caricof@cimh.edu.bb DROUGHT OUTLOOK

55. ONDJFM CPT probabilistic ONDJFM CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov. DJFM 3.Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over DJFM (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). caricof@cimh.edu.bb

56. ONDJFM CPT probabilistic ONDJFM Drought forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.139 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 422Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.147 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 422Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 3CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48Values : 20Index : 0.141 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5 Used : 35Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

57. JJASONDFJMAM 2015-16 caricof@cimh.edu.bb DROUGHT OUTLOOK

58. JJASONDJFMAM CPT probabilistic JJASONDJFMAM CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). caricof@cimh.edu.bb

59. JJASONDJFMAM CPT probabilistic JJASONDJFMAM Drought forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.111 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 2Used : 407Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 1 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

60. Drought Outlook Oct to Mar Drought Outlook Oct to Mar Areas under immediate drought concern? caricof@cimh.edu.bb December 2015 Current update (December 2015): Drought concern is noted across the region, except the Bahamas, most parts of Belize, Cuba and Turks & Caicos. We issue a drought warning in the remaining locations except south-western Belize, Grenada, western Jamaica, St. Kitts & Nevis, Tobago where we issue a drought watch. Current Outlook Previous Outlook

61. caricof@cimh.edu.bb RAISE AWARENESS & CONSERVE WATER!! Current Current drought situation (up to the end of December 2015): (more information here)here – Because of below-normal rainfall during the previous dry and current wet seasons, water shortages occur in many portions of the Antilles. – Nearly all island nations are in longer-term drought (except Bahamas and Cuba), as well as W Belize. After a record dry August to October period in 10 territories, many Antilles islands are currently facing severe shorter-term drought. Shorter-term Shorter-term (till March 2016): – We expect that a shorter-term drought situation may persist in the Antilles and in Belize, especially in ABC Islands, Barbados, Cayman, Hispaniola, Leewards, US C’bean Terr. And N Windwards. Longer-term Longer-term (beyond March 2016): – Strong El Niño in place. El Niño often results in a drier wet season and an early end to it (except for the NW C’bean), and particularly so in the SE C’bean. This may lead to drought concerns towards the end of the next dry season. – Areas with existing water shortages may not see full recovery until the next wet season, in particular Barbados, Belize, central Hispaniola, E Jamaica, Leewards, Trinidad & Tobago, US C’bean Terr. and Windwards. Drought outlook Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern?

62. Long-term drought outlook Long-term drought outlook Concerns by the end of the Caribbean dry season (May 31 st, 2016)? caricof@cimh.edu.bb November 2015 This 12-month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations until November 2015, with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12-month SPI is ≤-0.8 (moderately dry or worse – ref.: CDPMN). Impactful hydrological drought by the end of the dry season (May 31 st ) is a concern across all the Antilles except eastern Cuba (no data available for Haïti), in Belize and the Guianas. A drought emergency is issued for SE Puerto Rico. A drought warning is issued for the remainder of the Antilles except eastern Cuba, and western Belize. Previous Outlook Current Outlook

63. ALERT LEVELMEANINGACTION LEVEL NO CONCERNNO CONCERN No drought concern monitor resources update and ratify management plans public awareness campaigns upgrade infrastructure DROUGHT WATCHDROUGHT WATCH Drought possible keep updated protect resources and conserve water implement management plans response training monitor and repair infrastructure DROUGHT WARNINGDROUGHT WARNING Drought evolving protect resources conserve and recycle water implement management plans release public service announcements last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades report impacts DROUGHT EMERGENCY Drought of immediate concern release public service announcements implement management and response plans enforce water restrictions and recycling enforce resource protection repair infrastructure report impacts caricof@cimh.edu.bb

64. Rainfall frequency and extreme forecasts – wet days and wet spells outlooks December 2015 to February 2016 Dr. Cedric VAN MEERBEECK 1, Wazita Scott 1, Dr. Simon MASON 2, Ángel MUÑOZ 2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN 2, Dale Destin 3 1 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA 3 Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services

65. caricof@cimh.edu.bb Wet day frequency shifts Forecast for: Dec-Feb 2015-6 USUALLY: Number of wet days decreases from December to February, except the Guianas which enter their wet season. FORECAST: December to February rainfall expected to be below- to normal in eastern and southern Caribbean with fewer wet days (high confidence), but above- to normal in Bahamas, Belize, Cuba. IMPLICATION: Fewer disruptions of outdoor activities; increasing surface dryness, reduced recharge of water reservoirs.

66. USUALLY: Few wet spells occur after December, except in the Guianas. FORECAST: December to February rainfall expected to be below- to normal in eastern and southern Caribbean with fewer wet days (high confidence), wet spells (medium confidence) and extreme wet spells (medium confidence), but above- to normal in Bahamas, Belize, Cuba. IMPLICATION: Limited flash flood potential. caricof@cimh.edu.bb DJF 2015 frequency of extreme (top 1%) 3-day wet spells Extreme wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: Dec-Feb 2015-6

67. caricof@cimh.edu.bb Number of wet days in NDJ 2015-6 Number of 7-day wet spells in NDJ 2015-6 (20% wettest) Number of 7-day very wet spells in NDJ 2015-6 (10% wettest) Number of 3-day extremely wet spells in NDJ 2015-6 (1% wettest) ClimatologyForecastClimatologyForecastClimatologyForecastClimatologyForecast Antigua (VC Bird) 28-4425-412-4.92-5.20-30-3.10-10-1.1 Aruba (Beatrix) 18-4612-312-10.90.8-4.20-6.30-3.40-2.30-1.9 Barbados (CIMH) 30-4726-421-5.90.7-40-30-2.90-10-1.1 Barbados (GAIA) 31-4527-422-5.91.4-4.90-40-30-1.30-1.1 Belize (C. Farm) 30-4624-461.7-6.53-8.90.6-40-3.60-1 Cayman 18-2614-290-3.30-3.40-30-20-1.3 Cuba (Punta Maisi) 17-2914-273-5.62.1-5.91-41.3-4.70-10-1.3 Dominica (Canefield) Dominica (Douglas Charles) 40-5437-512-6.41.2-5.50-30-3.10-10-0.1 Dom. Republic (Las Americas) Grenada (MBIA) 29-4324-402-6.30-5.30.6-3.70-2.50-1.50-1.8 Guyana (Albion) 26-4919-351-5.30-2.20-40-1.70-10-0.8 Guyana (Blairmont) 30-5523-400.6-5.90-2.80-3.30-1.20-20-1 Guyana (Georgetown) 36-6030-461-6.90-31-5.30-2.30-30-1.6 Guyana (New Amsterdam) 30-5124-401.6-6.10-30-4.90-1.60-20-1.5 Guyana (Timehri) 40-6435-501-6.90-2.90-40-1.90-10-1.2 Jamaica (Worthy Park) 21-2816-294.9-8.95-11.71.6-5.91.9-6.60-10-0 Martinique (FDF Desaix) 48-6244-601-30.7-3.60-20-1.80-10-1.3 Puerto Rico (San Juan) 36-5132-470-10-1.3 St. Lucia (Hewanorra) 38-5232-480-10-1.3 St. Maarten (TNCM) 34-5230-480-10-2 St. Vincent (ET Joshua) 50-6644-590-1.30-1.4 Suriname (Zanderij) 38-5236-53 Tobago (ANR Robinson) 36-5133-460-10-1.3 Trinidad (Piarco) 35-4631-440-1.3 brown is a decrease in frequency, dark blue an increase December to February 2015-6 Forecast

68. APPENDIX caricof@cimh.edu.bb

69. US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/fige1.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/fige3.shtml caricof@cimh.edu.bb

70. US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt5.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt18.shtml caricof@cimh.edu.bb

71. NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml caricof@cimh.edu.bb

72. Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=585&PageID=0&cached=true&mode=2&userID=2 caricof@cimh.edu.bb Caribbean & tropical Atlantic El Niño region

73. Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=585&PageID=0&cached=true&mode=2&userID=2 caricof@cimh.edu.bb Caribbean & tropical Atlantic El Niño region

74. Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted Tropical SSTs http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/sea-surface-temperature-public-charts-long-range-forecast caricof@cimh.edu.bb

75. US Climate Prediction Center – El Niño update http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif caricof@cimh.edu.bb

76. Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ caricof@cimh.edu.bb

77. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2013-december-quick-look/ caricof@cimh.edu.bb

78. IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ caricof@cimh.edu.bb

79. EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/eurosip/group_euro_public/seasonal_charts_rain!rain!te rcile%20summary!1%20month!Tropics!201310!/ caricof@cimh.edu.bb

80. ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/rain-public-charts-long-range- forecast?time=2015100100,5088,2016043000&area=Tropics&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile%20summary caricof@cimh.edu.bb

81. UK Met Office – probabilistic Rainfall forecast http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob caricof@cimh.edu.bb

82. NOAA CPC – probabilistic rainfall forecast http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cfsv2/camerica_prec_prob2.shtml caricof@cimh.edu.bb

83. APCC – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast http://www.apcc21.org/eng/service/6mon/ps/japcc030703.jsp caricof@cimh.edu.bb

84. Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier caricof@cimh.edu.bb

85. Japan Met Agency - probabilistic rainfall forecast http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3-mon/fcst/fcst_gl.php caricof@cimh.edu.bb

86. Environment Canada CanSIPS - probabilistic Rainfall forecast caricof@cimh.edu.bb JFM 2015 (0.5 month lead) AMJ 2016 (3.5 month lead)

87. IRI – multi-model probabilistic T 2m forecast http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ caricof@cimh.edu.bb

88. EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic T 2m forecast http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/eurosip/group_euro_public/seasonal_charts_rain!rain!te rcile%20summary!1%20month!Tropics!201310!/ caricof@cimh.edu.bb

89. ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic T 2m forecast http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/2m-temperature-public-charts-long-range- forecast?time=2015100100,3624,2016022900&area=Tropics&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile%20summary caricof@cimh.edu.bb

90. UK Met Office – probabilistic T 2m forecast http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob caricof@cimh.edu.bb

91. APCC – multi-model probabilistic T 2m forecast http://www.apcc21.org/eng/service/6mon/ps/japcc030703.jsp caricof@cimh.edu.bb

92. Météo France Arpège – probabilistic T 2m forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier caricof@cimh.edu.bb

93. Japan Met Agency - probabilistic T 2m forecast http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3-mon/fcst/fcst_gl.php caricof@cimh.edu.bb

94. Environment Canada CanSIPS - probabilistic T 2m forecast caricof@cimh.edu.bb JFM 2016 (0.5 month lead) AMJ 2016 (3.5 month lead)

95. caricof@cimh.edu.bb rcc.cimh.edu.bb Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology TEL: (246) 425-1362/3 | FAX: (246) 424-4733