1. HIV Drug Resistance Surveillance 2004-2010 Satellite Session: HIV Drug Resistance Surveillance and Control: a Global Concern Silvia Bertagnolio, MD WHO, Geneva July 22, 2012

2. 2 www.who.in ​ t/hiv/pub/ ​ drugresist ​ ance/repor ​ t2012

3. 3 Overview of WHO's Global HIVDR Strategy  Surveillance of Transmitted Drug Resistance  Surveillance of Acquired Drug Resistance  Monitoring of Early Warning Indicators

4. 4 TRANSMITTED HIV DRUG RESISTANCE

5. 5 Transmitted HIVDR (WHO surveys) Overview of Methods  Method does not estimate point prevalence, but classifies levels in three categories*: –Low prevalence <5% –Moderate prevalence 5-15% –High prevalence >15%  Results not national or clinic-specific but apply to the geographic area surveyed within the country  *M.Myatt et al. Antiviral Therapy 2008 D.Bennett et al. Antiviral Therapy 2008 ARV-naïve populations likely to have been recently infected

6. 6 Transmitted HIVDR (WHO surveys) 2004-2010 Note: based on the sub-set of 72 surveys whose HIVDR prevalence results could be classified as low, moderate or high for at least one drug class; areas surveyed differ between the two periods -72 surveys with results that could be classified as low, moderate or high to any drug class

7. 7 Transmitted HIVDR (WHO surveys) Surveys with Moderate Classification 2004 – 2010 -20 (out of 72 surveys) reported moderate levels of resistance to any drug class

8. 8 Transmitted HIVDR (WHO surveys) Geographical Distribution (pooled analysis) Country reporting results from WHO surveys of transmitted HIV drug resistance, 2004–2010 No data available or not participating in the surveys Not applicable 82 surveys covering a total of 3588 recently-infected individuals, 2004-2010

9. 9 Transmitted HIVDR (WHO surveys) Estimates by year and region (pooled analysis) If you break down by drug class… Note: *test for trend, adjusted for region; Source: 82 WHO surveys covering 3588 recently-infected individuals

10. 10 Transmitted HIVDR (WHO surveys) Estimates by year, region and class of drug … estimated increase is only statistically significant for NNRTI in Africa. Note: *test for trend, adjusted for region; Source: 82 WHO surveys covering 3588 recently-infected individuals; all other regions omitted due to lack of statistical significance. Areas surveyed variec considerably among countries and over time..

11. 11 Transmitted HIVDR (WHO surveys) Mutation Prevalence (n=3588, pooled analysis from 82 surveys) Note: drug resistance mutations as defined by WHO 2009 Surveillance Drug Resistance Mutation (SDRM) list Overall prevalence: 3.1% K103N or S: 0.8% D67N/G, K101E/P, Y181C and M184V: between 0.3 – 0.4%

12. 12 Transmitted HIVDR (WHO surveys) Relationship between transmitted resistance to NNRTI and ART coverage Notes: p-value adjusted for region: 0.039. Odds-ratio = 1.49 (95% CI 1.07-2.08)

13. 13 Transmitted HIVDR - Conclusions More recent surveys reported higher average levels of transmitted resistance, particularly to NNRTI in the areas surveyed in the African region As expected, higher HIVDR prevalence is associated with higher ART coverage

14. 14 ACQUIRED HIV DRUG RESISTANCE

15. 15 Acquired HIVDR – WHO surveys Objectives –To describe HIVDR in cohorts at start and 12 months after ART initiation –To estimate viral load suppression 12 months after ART initiation at the clinic level Populations starting 1 st -line ART at select clinics (naïve- and ARV-exposed)

16. 16 Acquired HIVDR (WHO surveys) 40 surveys, 12 countries, 2006 – 2010

17. 17 Acquired HIVDR (WHO surveys) Mutation Prevalence at ART initiation (N = 5094) Any SDRM: 5% NNRTI: 3.7% NRTI: 1.4% NNRTI & NRTI: 0.6% Note: drug resistance mutations as defined by WHO 2009 Surveillance Drug Resistance Mutation (SDRM) list

18. 18 Acquired HIVDR (WHO surveys) HIVDR in Patients before ART Initiation (N = 5094) Year of Implementation 2007200820092010p-value Any drug class Africa4.6 (3.6–5.8)3.7 (2.8–4.8)4.6 (2.2–7.8)6.8 (4.8–9.0)0.04 South-East Asia7.9 (4.0–13.7)5.4 (2.9–8.6)……0.34 Overall4.8 (3.8–6.0)3.9 (3.0–4.9)4.6 (2.2–7.8)6.8 (4.8–9.0)0.06 NRTI Africa1.1 (0.6–1.7)1.0 (0.5–1.6)1.1 (0.3–2.2)1.0 (0.3–2.0)0.75 South-East Asia3.6 (1.2–8.2)4.3 (2.0–7.2)……0.74 Overall1.2 (0.7–2.0)1.3 (0.8–2.0)1.1 (0.3–2.2)1.0 (0.3–2.0)0.70 NNRTI Africa3.4 (2.4–4.5)2.3 (1.4–3.3)3.3 (1.8–5.0)5.4 (3.7–7.4)0.03 South-East Asia7.9 (4.0–13.7)3.0 (1.2–5.6)……… Overall3.7 (2.5–4.9)2.4 (1.6–3.3)3.3 (1.8–5.0)5.4 (3.7–7.4)0.06 PI Africa0.3 (0.1–0.8)0.5 (0.1–0.9)0.5 (0.1–1.7)0.0 (0.0–0.4)0.82 South-East Asia0.0 (0.0–2.6)0.0 (0.0–0.7)……… Overall0.3 (0.0–0.7)0.4 (0.1–0.8)0.5 (0.1–1.7)0.0 (0.0–0.4)0.97 Note: "…" not available or applicable; select p-values could not be calculated due to collinearity, lack of data and/or variability

19. 19 Acquired HIVDR (WHO surveys) HIVDR in Patients Before ART Initiation (N = 5094) Year of Implementation 2007200820092010p-value Any drug class Africa4.6 (3.6–5.8)3.7 (2.8–4.8)4.6 (2.2–7.8)6.8 (4.8–9.0)0.04 South-East Asia7.9 (4.0–13.7)5.4 (2.9–8.6)……0.34 Overall4.8 (3.8–6.0)3.9 (3.0–4.9)4.6 (2.2–7.8)6.8 (4.8–9.0)0.06 NRTI Africa1.1 (0.6–1.7)1.0 (0.5–1.6)1.1 (0.3–2.2)1.0 (0.3–2.0)0.75 South-East Asia3.6 (1.2–8.2)4.3 (2.0–7.2)……0.74 Overall1.2 (0.7–2.0)1.3 (0.8–2.0)1.1 (0.3–2.2)1.0 (0.3–2.0)0.70 NNRTI Africa3.4 (2.4–4.5)2.3 (1.4–3.3)3.3 (1.8–5.0)5.4 (3.7–7.4)0.03 South-East Asia7.9 (4.0–13.7)3.0 (1.2–5.6)……… Overall3.7 (2.5–4.9)2.4 (1.6–3.3)3.3 (1.8–5.0)5.4 (3.7–7.4)0.06 PI Africa0.3 (0.1–0.8)0.5 (0.1–0.9)0.5 (0.1–1.7)0.0 (0.0–0.4)0.82 South-East Asia0.0 (0.0–2.6)0.0 (0.0–0.7)……… Overall0.3 (0.0–0.7)0.4 (0.1–0.8)0.5 (0.1–1.7)0.0 (0.0–0.4)0.97 Note: "…" not available or applicable; select p-values could not be calculated due to collinearity, lack of data and/or variability

20. 20 Acquired HIVDR (WHO surveys) – Three 12-Month Outcomes (n=3834) (1) HIV drug resistance prevented: - VL <1000 copies/ml (2) HIV drug resistance detected: -VL > 1000 copies/ml and HIVDR (3) HIV drug resistance possible: - LTFU, stops and VL > 1000 copies/ml but no HIVDR observed

21. 21 Acquired HIVDR (WHO Surveys) Summary of 12-Month Outcomes (pooled, n=3834) Region HIV drug resistance prevention (% of people initiating therapy a ) Any HIV drug resistance at endpoint b Possible HIV drug resistance (% of people initiating therapy a ) % of people initiating therapy a % of people genotyped at treatment failure Eastern Africa79.4%4.3%63.7%16.4% Southern Africa80.3%4.7%73.3%15.0% Western/central Africa59.9%6.0%74.5%34.1% African Region76.6%4.7%69.5%18.8% South-East Asia71.4%8.9%93.3%19.7% Overall76.1%5.1%72.1%18.8% a Excludes people who died or who were transferred to another antiretroviral therapy facility. b HIV drug resistance defined as a drug resistance prediction of low, intermediate or high level using the Stanford HIV database algorithm. Alternatively, if calculated based on the number of surveillance drug resistance mutations at endpoint, subregional, regional and overall proportions remain identical.

22. 22 Region HIV drug resistance prevention (% of people initiating therapy a ) Any HIV drug resistance at endpoint b Possible HIV drug resistance (% of people initiating therapy a ) % of people initiating therapy a % of people genotyped at treatment failure Eastern Africa79.4%4.3%63.7%16.4% Southern Africa80.3%4.7%73.3%15.0% Western/central Africa59.9%6.0%74.5%34.1% African Region76.6%4.7%69.5%18.8% South-East Asia71.4%8.9%93.3%19.7% Overall76.1%5.1%72.1%18.8% 27.9% of patients failing therapy had no HIVDR Acquired HIVDR (WHO Surveys) Summary of 12-Month Outcomes (pooled, n=3834)

23. 23 Acquired HIVDR (WHO Surveys) Prevalence of Mutations in People Failing ART at 12 Months (pooled) (n=269) M184V: 58.7% K65R (10.4%) D67N (7.1%) T215 (multiple): 5.6% K219 (multiple): 4.8% ≥ 3 TAMs: 3.3% NNRTI NRTI NNRTI & NRTI

24. 24 * PI resistance was only observed for nelfinavir, resulting from the presence of multiple polymorphic mutations, especially in subtypes C, G and CRF02_AG. Nelfinavir resistance was never observed in specimens without predicted NRTI or NNRTI resistance. No drug resistance was predicted for any ritonavir-boosted PI. Based on the Stanford algorithm using resistance interpretation of "low-level" or higher. Acquired HIVDR (WHO Surveys) Predicted HIVDR in people failing ART at 12 months (pooled) (n=269) NRTIs commonly used in 2 nd -line regimens Currently-recommended second-line regimens likely to be effective for the majority of patients failing first-line ART

25. 25 Region HIV drug resistance prevention (% of people initiating therapy a ) Any HIV drug resistance at endpoint b Possible HIV drug resistance (% of people initiating therapy a ) % of people initiating therapy a % of people genotyped at treatment failure Eastern Africa79.4%4.3%63.7%16.4% Southern Africa80.3%4.7%73.3%15.0% Western/central Africa59.9%6.0%74.5%34.1% African Region76.6%4.7%69.5%18.8% South-East Asia71.4%8.9%93.3%19.7% Overall76.1%5.1%72.1%18.8% Acquired HIVDR (WHO Surveys) Summary of 12-Month Outcomes (pooled, n=3834)

26. 26 Acquired HIVDR (WHO Surveys) – Summary of Key 12-Month Outcomes (by clinic) Note: Possible drug resistance includes 75 patients with viral load greater than 1000 copies/ml at 12 months and no resistance, 13 who stopped antiretroviral therapy, 599 who were lost to follow-up, 34 with viral load greater than 1000 copies/ml at 12 months but with specimens failing to amplify and 1 with viral load greater than 1000 copies/ml at switch but failing to amplify PCR products

27. 27 Acquired HIVDR (WHO surveys) Conclusions AT ART INITIATION:  5% of individuals had any HIVDR-associated mutation  Currently recommended first-line ART regimens will be effective for most people initiating treatment. AT 12 MONTHS:  Of individuals initiating therapy: (i) 5.1% had any DR, (ii) 76.6% had no drug resistance, but (iii) 18.8% had possible DR  Of individuals failing therapy at 12 months: 72.1% had any DR (69.5% NNRTI, 62.5% NRTI, 59.9% NNRTI and NRTI)  Currently recommended second-line ART regimens will be effective for most people failing therapy if they were switched soon after virological failure

28. 28 CONCLUSIONS As ART roll out continues, increased rates of HIVDR may occur ART programs must be informed by routine programmatic evaluation to minimize first-line failure and HIVDR emergence and transmission Routine, standardized, population-based surveillance of HIVDR is imperative and must be in place to detect potential future increase of HIVDR in a timely manner Funders and national governments must step up to support and sustain a global approach to assessing HIVDR