1. Class Project Report, Spring 2014 E 449/549 Sustainable Air Quality Sustainability Transition of Sulfurous Air Quality 1960-2013 Emissions and Causality Drivers - Lesley Olson Ambient Sulfurous Air Quality - Andrew Martahus Control Measures - Jennifer Elwell Instructor: Rudolf B. Husar Washington University, St. Louis, MO, May 2, 2014

2. Initially, only discussing this portion of model, which ends with the emissions. Population P Economy GDP$/yr Energy Use BTU/yr Fuel Cons. T/yr Emissions T/yr Air Quality ppm Per Capita GDP (GDP/P) Energy Intensity (BTU/GDP) Fuel Eny. Factor (T/BTU) Emissions Factor (T/T) Air Quality Factor (ppm/T) Linear Causality Model

3. Population, per capita GDP, and energy intensity are the same as they were for carbon emissions, because we are dealing with U.S. totals. Unlike the carbon emissions factor, the sulfur emissions factor has decreased considerably since 1970. The overall emissions trend moves with the emissions factor trend. Clean Air Act (1970) Clean Air Act (1990) Sulfur Emissions Change Drivers Graphs found here with original data (“Trend Drivers” tab), and discussed on the Wiki here.here

4. Sulfur Emissions Change Drivers Graphs found here with original data (“Trend Drivers” tab), and discussed on the Wiki here.here

5. Population increases at constant rate of approximately 1%/year. Energy intensity decreases at a decreasing rate; note the shift in derivative magnitude that occurs around 1985. The emissions factor decreases slightly, and relatively constantly over time. Per capita GDP increases at an increasing rate. Oil embargo (1973) Recession (2008) Energy Intensity Driven Per Capita GDP Driven Carbon Emissions Change Drivers Graphs found here with original data (“Trend Drivers” tab), and discussed on the Wiki here.here

6. First decade with decrease in overall carbon emissions occurs. Carbon Emissions Change Drivers Graphs found here with original data (“Trend Drivers” tab), and discussed on the Wiki here.here

7. Only difference between two sets of drivers: the emissions factor. Comparison of Emissions Graphs found here with original data (“Trend Drivers” tab), and discussed on the Wiki here.here

8. Comparison of Historical Emissions Graphs found here with original data (“Additional Emissions Data” tab), and discussed on the Wiki here.here Initial Divergence (~1945) Sulfur Emissions Controlled (~1970)

9. Now, extend the linear causality model for sulfur emissions to include ambient sulfur concentrations Linear Causality Model Population P Economy GDP$/yr Energy Use BTU/yr Fuel Cons. T/yr Emissions T/yr Air Quality ppm Per Capita GDP (GDP/P) Energy Intensity (BTU/GDP) Fuel Eny. Factor (T/BTU) Emissions Factor (T/T) Air Quality Factor (ppm/T)

10. Extension of Model to Ambient Sulfur Concentration Graphs found here with original data (“Trend Drivers” tab), and discussed on the Wiki here.here The population, per capita GDP, energy intensity, and emissions factor were all discussed in the previous model. Concentration/emissions term increases over time. Not as constant as would be expected. Ambient average concentrations vary considerably over this time period as well.

11. Extension of Model to Ambient Sulfur Concentration Graphs found here with original data (“Trend Drivers” tab), and discussed on the Wiki here.here