1. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR Patrícia Baptista Lisboa, 7 st June 2010

2. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR PhD on Sustainble Energy Systems within the MIT Portugal Program - Evaluation of the impact of new vehicle and fuel technologies in the Portuguese road transportation sector With supervision of Prof. Tiago Farias, Dra. Carla Silva of IDMEC-IST and Prof. John Heywood of the MIT Sloan Automotive Lab DTEA’s team sponsors:

3. Introduction Energy consumption Environment Major problems Road Transportation Sector Significant contribution to energy consumption and emissions of road transportation sector ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR

4. Introduction Energy consumption Environment Major problems Road Transportation Sector Significant contribution to energy consumption and emissions of road transportation sector Possible pathways: Improved vehicle energy efficiency Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen…) Alternative powertrain configurations ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR

5. Portuguese case: - option for electrification of transportation sector Mobi.E Project: Government will deploy up to 1350 recharging points up to 2012; Government projects up to 160 000 EVs in 2020; 24 cities integrate the Mobi.E project; incentive to purchase - introduction of biofuels Renewable Energy Directive - RED: 2020 target of 10% of renewable energy in the transportation sector Fuel Quality Directive – FQD: 10% reduction of GHG life-cycle emissions of fossil fuels (6% through the introduction of biofuels) ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR Introduction

6. Portuguese road transportation sector 550 LDV per 1000 inhab. 86% engine displacement <2 liters 12800 km per year; 35 km daily + HDV and Buses (165000 + 15000) ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR

7. Assess impacts on: fleet composition; energy consumption; CO 2 emissions; … Resulting of the introduction of alternative vehicles/fuels in the Portuguese road transportation sector up to 2050. Objective ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR

8. Tool to model the transportation sector dynamics: PATTS (Projections for Alternative Transportation Technologies Software) Assess impacts on: fleet composition; energy consumption; CO 2 emissions; … Resulting of the introduction of alternative vehicles/fuels in the Portuguese road transportation sector up to 2050. Fleet target: Light duty vehicles + Heavy duty vehicles + Buses, Time frame: 2050 Methodology ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR

9. Cradle-to-Grave (Europe) Europe Fuel (WTT) Vehicle simulation (TTW) Fuel life cycle Materials life cycle Full life cycle Real world driving cycle Ranking of different vehicle technology options and energy source pathways: Methodology ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR

10. BASELINE TREND SCENARIO POLICY ORIENTED SCENARIO ELECTRICITY POWERED SCENARIO HDV and BUSES SCENARIO Considering different Scenarios for… ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR Vehicle Technology LDV Baseline shift 8% to HEV LDV Policy shift 40% to HEV, EV, PHEV LDV EV shift 90% to HEV, EV and PHEV

11. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR LDV Baseline shift 8% to HEV LDV Policy shift 40% to HEV, EV, PHEV LDV EV shift 90% to HEV, EV and PHEV HDV + Buses shifts 30% to NG and H 2 Considering different Scenarios for…

12. BASELINE TREND SCENARIO POLICY ORIENTED SCENARIO ELECTRICITY POWERED SCENARIO HDV and BUSES SCENARIO ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR Vehicle Technology 1. Conservative (only FAME) 2. Moderate (FAME, HVO and ethanol) Energy source Considering different Scenarios for…

13. BASELINE TREND SCENARIO POLICY ORIENTED SCENARIO ELECTRICITY POWERED SCENARIO HDV and BUSES SCENARIO ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR Vehicle Technology 1. Conservative (only FAME) 2. Moderate (FAME, HVO and ethanol) Energy source Electricity Production Sector According to national targets of renewable integration (55% RE in 2020). Considering different Scenarios for…

14. LDV TTW energy and CO 2 per vehicle technology Comparing 2050 to 2010, the Baseline trend Scenario leads to an 66% growth in LDV TTW energy consumption and a 59% increase of TTW CO 2 emissions. However, in 2050 implementing Scenarios Policy and EV could lead to 21 and 42% reductions for energy consumption and up to 28 and 66% reductions for CO 2, respectively. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR The typical results are…

15. Electricity powered vehicle will be responsible in 2020 by 1% of the total TTW LDV energy consumption and up 9 and 34% in 2050 for Sc. Policy and EV. LDV TTW energy and CO 2 per vehicle technology ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR The typical results are…

16. Adding the WTT and C2G layers ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR TTW  69% WTT  14% C2G  17% The typical results are…

17. Total LCA Energy consumption For Sc. Baseline Bio 2, the total energy consumption of the Portuguese fleet increases in 2050 by 90% having as reference the energy consumption in 2010. In 2050, Scenarios Policy and EV can reduce energy consumption by up to 16 and 31%. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR +90% -31% LDV fleet The typical results are…

18. +90% -31% Total LCA Energy consumption For Sc. Baseline Bio 2, the total energy consumption of the Portuguese fleet increases in 2050 by 21% having as reference the energy consumption in 2010. In 2050, Scenarios Policy and EV can reduce energy consumption by up to 13 and 23%. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR +21% -10% -23% LDV fleet+ HDV and Buses Plus an average 53% of due to HDV + Buses The typical results are…

19. +72% -29% For Sc. Baseline Bio 2, the total energy consumption of the Portuguese fleet increases in 2050 by 72% having as reference the energy consumption in 2010. In 2050, Scenarios Policy and EV can reduce energy consumption by up to 19 and 29%. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR LDV fleet Total LCA CO 2 emissions The typical results are…

20. +72% -29% For Sc. Baseline Bio 2, the total energy consumption of the Portuguese fleet increases in 2050 by 11% having as reference the energy consumption in 2010. In 2050, Scenarios Policy and EV can reduce energy consumption by up to 14 and 22%. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR +11% -13% -22% LDV fleet+ HDV and Buses Plus an average 53% of due to HDV + Buses Total LCA CO 2 emissions The typical results are…

21. If no alternative solutions are adopted, the total life-cycle energy consumption and CO 2 emissions of the entire Portuguese fleet will continue to increase. These impacts can be reduced if different vehicle technology and energy source scenarios are implemented. The results confirm that the introduction of alternative technologies takes a longtime to achieve considerable shares of the total global fleet, due to the delay caused by the slow fleet turnover. TTW renewable component can increase by 19%. HDV and Buses represent a considerable share that must also be addressed. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PORTUGUESE ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR Concluding that…

22. patricia.baptista@ist.utl.pt Av. Rovisco Pais, Pavilhão de Mecânica 1 - 2º 1049-001 Lisboa Tel.: 218 417 929 Fax.: 218 417 640