1. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA1 How do we see & use statistics? Government Communicators’ Meeting Sonia M. Jackson Director General Statistical Institute of Jamaica

2. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA2 Structure of Presentation  World population trends  Findings from Census 2011  Population projections to 2030  Components of the Labour Force Survey July 2012  The changing structure of the economy  Impact of the population change  Conclusion

3. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA3 World Population Trends 2012  Fertility rate worldwide 2.4 children per woman  Infant mortality rate 41 infant deaths per 1000 population  Life expectancy at birth - 70 years  Death rate 8 deaths per 1000 population  In Latin America & Caribbean (LAC) Fertility rate 2.2 children per woman Infant mortality rate 20 infant deaths per 1000 population Death rate 6 deaths per 1000 population

4. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA4 Findings Census 2011  Jamaica, like the rest of Caribbean, has been similar to the rest of the world – Reduced fertility rates  Declining from 5.8 children per woman in 1970 to 2.3 children per woman in 2011 Slight increase in death rate  From 6.4 per 1000 in 2001 to 7.1 per 1000 in 2011 Population aging  Median age was 17 in 1970 and 27 in 2011  %age increase in Population over age 65 increased from 4.3% in 1960 to 8.1% in 2011

5. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA5 Population changes Census YearPopulationBirthsDeaths Net Migration Annual %age growth rate 1911831,400 1921858,100370,200216,40077,1000.31 19431,246,200765,300412,20025,8001.67 19601,624,400855,500287,500195,2001.56 19701,848,500676,500141,300296,5001.39 19822,190,400747,788188,993216,9591.40 19912,380,700505,844133,973181,6010.95 20012,607,632603,090159,733216,3920.87 20112,697,983438,318179,253168,7140.36

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7. 7 Findings Census 2011  Other Features - Migration rates - though declining – still relatively high Urbanization - 54 % of population living in urban centres Use of technology –  Telephone access within households increased from 59.36% in 2001 to 94.04% in 2011  Households with Computers and Internet Connection increased form 11.86% in 2001 to 26.69% in 2011

8. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA8 Urbanization Urban/ Rural 20112001 Change %age Change %age Share of Total Population 2001-2011 20112001 Total2,697,9832,607,63290,3513.5100 Urban1,453,4381,355,33498,1047.25452 Rural1,244,5451,252,299-7,754-0.64648

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11. Population Change in the Five Fastest Growing Parish Capitals: 2001 - 2011 CAPITALPARISHPOPULATION% CHANGE 2001- 2011 % SHARE OF PARISH TOTAL 2011 2001 Black River St Elizabeth5,3524,095314 LuceaHanover7,1316,0621410 Spanish Town St. Catherine147,152131,51 5 1229 Montego Bay St. James110,11596,4771460 Sav-la- Mar Westmoreland22,63319,8931416

12. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA12 Availability and Access to Use of technology Telephone access within households increased from 59.36% in 2001 to 94.04% in 2011 Households with Computers and Internet Connection increased from 11.86% in 2001 to 26.69% in 2011

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16. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA16 The Population Projections

17. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA17 Population Projections to 2030  Fertility rates – continue to decline  Life expectancy not expected to change significantly – 70 for men and 75 for women  Mortality rates will change with aging population  Net migration rates should remain fairly flat  Total population – 2.752 million being 1.355 million males and 1.397 females – based on 2000 projections at the low level

18. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA18 Components of Population Change 2015-2030 Census Years Births, Deaths and Migration in Inter-censal Period Annual Growth Rate % PopulationBirths Deaths Natural IncreaseMigration Census 2011 Results 20112,697,983438,318179,253259,065168,7140.36 Projection Years (data per annum) 2015-20202,753,90247,40022,00025,40020,0000.19 2020-20252,769,22445,00023,00022,00020,0000.05 2025-20302,752,05439,00025,00014,00020,000-0.10

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20. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA20 Changing Age Structure of Population Age Groups 1960200120112030 0 -1441.2032.2026.1023.00 15 - 6454.6060.1065.9066.00 65+4.307.708.1011.00 100 100.00

21. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA21 Vision 2030 Jamaica National Development Plan

22. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA22 Vision 2030 Jamaica – National Development Plan NATIONAL GOAL # 1 NATIONAL OUTCOMES Jamaicans are empowered to achieve their fullest potential 1. A Healthy & Stable Population 2. World Class Education & Training 3. Effective Social Protection 4. Authentic & Transformational Culture

23. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA23 Challenges to achieving National Goal #1 a. Inadequate health personnel & infrastructure b. Poor performance of learners, especially boys at the various levels of education c. Need for better trained education personnel d. Inadequate parenting e. Discrimination against persons with disabilities f. Inadequate support for the vulnerable population g. Not enough attention being paid to positive values such as truthfulness & respect for each other h. Inadequate resources for the development of the creative industries including culture & sports

24. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA24 The Labour Force July 2012

25. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA 25 Employed Labour Force by Occupation CategoriesMALEFEMALETOTAL Occupation Groups Professional96,104146,695242,800 Clerks22,30373,20995,511 Service Worker84,666129,718214,384 Skilled Agri. Worker160,75834,844195,602 Craft & Related Worker135,27112,071147,343 Plant & Machine Operator52,8852,87855,764 Elementary Operator66,74675,503142,249 Not specified6663741,041 Total619,399475,2931,094,692

26. 26 STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA 26 Employed Labour Force By Industry INDUSTRYMaleFemaleTotal Agri. Forestry and Fishing.157,23139,241196,472 Mining and Quarrying.3,9544834,437 Manufacturing.49,94025,00674,945 Elec. Gas & Water5,9192,1288,047 Construction81,7833,47085,253 Wholesale, Retail & Repairs96,818117,831214,649 Hotels & Restaurant33,59748,07181,668 Transport & Storage57,91717,18575,102 Financial, Real Estate40,65541,42682,082 Public Admin. & Education48,51878,618127,136 Health, Social work & Personal Ser.33,50454,43587,939 Private Household8,88745,52454,411 Industries n/s & Extra Teri. (Embassy)6761,8752,551 TOTAL619,399475,2931,094,692

27. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA27 Employed Labour Force by Education & Age Educational Levels Age Groups Total 14 - 1920 - 2425 - 3435 - 4445 - 5455 - 6465 + None 8,86843,130161,866216,053134,72477,25549,216691,112 CXC basic, JSC 5 SSC, 3rd JL 1692,0177,0394,4174,6641,61336520283 CXC Gen, GCE 'O' 1-2 7216,4126,9784,3282,192266020897 CXC Gen, GCE 'O' 3-4 1,86610,90218,53310,9444,100807047152 CXC Gen, GCE 'O' 5+ 1,49614,96823,0368,3513,824823052499 GCE 'A' 1-2/, CAPE 1-2 01,081872175001402268 CAPE/GCE 'A' 3+ 8491,0001,27802177303417 Degree 05,48950,43845,25925,72911,1604,254142,329 Other 2042,94411,04210,2116,3002,80063634,137 Not stated 90 Total 15,22095,115305,796327,413194,77299,55056,7371,094,692

28. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA28 Employed L.F. by Industry & Education INDUSTRYNone CXC Basic, JSC 5 SSC, 3rd JL CXC Gen, GCE "O" GCE "A" & CAPEDegreeOther Not statedTOTAL Agri. Forestry and Fishing. 181,5722,0904,995731,5321,7064,412196,381 Mining and Quarrying. 2,015041101,1224624284,437 Manufacturing. 49,9107009,1283436,4312,4336,00074,945 Elec. Gas & Water 1,5871862,13302,7495048888,047 Construction 71,7391,2124,0596652,3658324,38285,253 Wholesale, Retail & Repairs 149,3834,83224,0828629,7815,63720,070214,649 Hotels & Restaurant 50,7652,22415,0093783,4712,0227,80081,668 Transport & Storage 43,3662,0827,9487539,6591,28410,00975,102 Financial, Real Estate 23,8671,00617,86796928,3652,6877,32282,082 Public Admin. & Education 26,9562,53022,1781,12357,2447,8839,221127,136 Health, Socialwork & Per. Ser. 40,2072,48511,87351918,3526,9527,55087,939 Private Household 49,21493773401001,7361,69154,411 Industries n/s & Extra Ter. 621013001,15807322,642 Total 691,20320,283120,5485,685142,32934,13780,5061,094,692

29. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA29 The Changing Economy

30. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA 30 The Changing Economic Structure - %age Contribution at Current Price INDUSTRIES19701980199020002011 1Wholesale, Retail; Repairs; Install.18.919.218.219.718.9 2Producers of Government Service7.914.07.411.714.2 3Real Estate, Renting,etc.9.58.59.99.312.2 4Financial & Insurance Services3.54.86.89.010.2 5Transport, Storage & Commun.5.55.18.410.79.7 6Manufacturing15.816.616.910.59.2 7Construction13.35.87.27.67.3 8Other Services5.64.36.06.66.7 9Agriculture Forestry & Fishing6.48.26.87.06.5 10Hotels & Restaurants1.60.96.15.14.3 11Electricity & Water Supply1.01.62.23.23.6 12Mining & Quarrying12.714.27.84.21.5 13Less: FISM1.73.33.74.64.3 Total Value Added100.0

31. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA31 %age Contribution at Current Price – Comparative Contribution for Each Period

32. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA32 Impacts of the Change

33. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA33 Impact of the Population Change on:  HEALTH & WELL BEING Increasing demand for health facilities & services Affordability Nutrition Entertainment & Exercise Pension Specialists care givers  HOUSING Design Assisted living/ retirement communities Recreation facilities/green spaces

34. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA34 Impact of the Population Change on:  EDUCATION & TRAINING The demand for school places at all levels The demand for new skill sets Work force will be more technology proficient Work force needs to be more innovative  TRANSPORTATION Services to attend medical appointments, go shopping, participate in social activities or simply get out of the house.

35. Governmen t Transporta tion Utilities Wholesale & retail Economy Population Age Structure Culture Education Labour Force Financial Manufactur e Services Production Constructio n Agriculture & Fisheries Mining & Quarrying Health Housing etc Conclusion Tourism, etc

36. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA36 Thank you for having allowed us to share with you!!!

37. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA37 References  Population Projections Jamaica 2000 – 2050 – published by Statistical Institute of Jamaica – April 2008  Population & Housing Census 2011 – Jamaica – General Report – Volume 1 - published by Statistical Institute of Jamaica – October 2011  Vision 2030 – National Development Plan  The Labour Force Survey – July 2012  World Population Data Sheet 2012 – Population Reference Bureau