1. Economy, Agriculture & Land Reform June 2016 Economy bad Agriculture doing well Some land reform reflections 2016/06/171

2. Economy Bad Population growth: 1.65% – Assuming one immigrant every 3,5 minutes Econ growth: – 2014:1.5% – 2015:1.3% – 2016:0.5% ? – 2017:0.9% ? – 2018:1.7% to 2.2% ? 2016/06/172

3. Getting Richer 19 yrs -11% 21 yrs +32% 25 lost years 3 yrs Growth: the history

4. Agriculture Doing Well Increases in production over 20 years – Measured in constant Rands In 2004: 10% more than in 1994 In 2009: 29% more In 2014: 40% more In 2015: 8% less because of drought, still 29% higher than 1994 42016/06/17

5. Fewer Farmers 1990s:66 000 2004:44 000 2007:< 40 000 2016:probably around 32 000 Decline of more than 50% Increase in production 40% Complete nonsense that fewer farmers mean “less production” or that “agriculture is collapsing” 2016/06/175

6. Employment in Agriculture 2000-well over 1.2 mil 2008-860 000 2011-620 000 50% decline in number of jobs 2013-764 000 R105 per day minimum wage introduced 2016-867 000 From 2011 low point: +40% Another 1.7 million in subsistence farming 2016/06/176

7. Two Dualisms Highly developed commercial sector Large subsistence, smallholder sector 2016/06/177 Efficiency Equity

8. Land Reform is … A historical necessity caused by 1913 Land Act, not obliterated by time (Scotland) A constitutional imperative – sec 25 A political compromise – part of deal on property rights Both rural (land reform) and urban (RDP housing) 2016/06/178

9. Scotland’s Long History 1560: Reformation – church lands grabbed 1617: Act of Prescription 2000/2004: feudalism abolished (after Scottish Parliament established) – England 1660 – France 1792 2016/06/179

10. Scotland in 2015 Scottish National Party (SNP) election promise: “Programme of radical land reform” Scottish Labour Party (SLP): “Not radical enough” “Scotland has the most concentrated pattern of land ownership in Europe, and that raises questions about … lack of control …over their own destinies and concentration of wealth and power.” 432 owners own 50% of Scotland’s private land; 221 own 40%; 16 own 10%. Private land 83% of rural land. Tenant farmers to buy land they work “Community right to buy” or community in villages can buy land No authoritarian seizure or violent revolution 2016/06/1710

11. SA Constitution Prescribes: Land restitution – sec 25(7) – “…dispossessed of property after 19 June 1913 …racially discriminatory laws” Access to land – sec 25(5) – “reasonable … measures, within its available resources, to foster conditions…gain access to land on an equitable basis Tenure reform – sec 25(6) – “…tenure of land is legally insecure ….to tenure which is secure or redress.” – Tenant farmers who lived on land for a long time – Communal land under control of the Chiefs 2016/06/1711

12. Targets and Progress 30% of 82 mil ha=24.6 mil ha By March 2016=7.8 mil ha (9.5%) – + private transactions: 3 – 4 mil ha or 5%? NDP target for 203016.4 mil ha (20%) By 20202 mil ha Tough targets: – Over first 20 years390k ha p.a. – Goal 4 years to 2020500k ha p.a. – Remaining to 2030660k ha p.a. 2016/06/1712

13. Follow the money Till 31 March 2016 some R63 billion spent Beneficiaries: – Land acquisition: R12.9 bill + R18.7 bill = R31.6 bill (50%) – Compensation for restitution: R9 bill (14%) – RECAP programme: R3.2 bill (5%) – 435 000 beneficiaries Does this look like Zimbabwe? 2016/06/1713

14. Property Clause (sec 25) Sec 25 (1) – no one may be deprived of property except in in terms of a law of general application, and no law may permit arbitrary deprivation Sec 25(2) – property may be expropriated only i.t.o. a law of general application for – A public purpose – Subject to compensation – The amount of which has been either agreed or decided by court Sec 25 (3) – the amount of the compensation must be just and equitable 2016/06/1714

15. So What? Economy bad: – 5 years of stagnant/declining per capita incomes – not as bad as 20 years before 1994 Agriculture doing well despite drought: – Rains will improve it again Land reform is: – A constitutional and historical imperative – Leaves two dualisms: can manage them successfully 2016/06/1715