1. Colorado Flood

2. Where it rained

3. When it rained

5. Why it rained  strong ridge weak front easterly flow into terrain convectively favorable environment

6. Deep moisture +4 

7. Easterly flow into the terrain +4 

8. Pattern of heavy rainfall Pontrelli et al 1999: a) Madison County 1995, b) Fort Collins 1997, c) Rapid City 1972 and d) Big Thompson Canyon 1977

9. Fronts and winds same 4 Cases

10. Idealized pattern for orographic record rainfall

11. Predictable? EC Forecasts QPF

12. EC Pattern

13. EC PW pattern

14. EC Winds

15. SREF Winds

16. GFS QPF

17. SREF Prob 150 mm

18. Prob 100 mm

19. Mean QPF and 50mm contours by member

20. Summary Pattern known to be associated with upslope and similar to many heavy rain events involving terrain Pattern well predicted QPF variable and had uncertainty issues along with clues to the rainfall potential

21. Late summer/autumn Fog Wisconsin case of using satellite data for fog – GOES lacks resolution sometimes – Suomi/NPP Day night band Local State College Native Scott Lindstrom http://fusedfog.ssec.wisc.edu/?p=531

22. Fog

23. Current Forecast Will it rain for PSU-KSU Why most likely it shall!

24. GEFS-SREF say we-are-ALL WET