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1 Tripwires, Murder Boards, and Premortems: The Xtremely Decisive PMO David Lindstedt, PhD, PMP, CBCP
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2 WARNING! Human Interaction Required! https://www.flickr.com/photos/shankbone/12263334196
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3 David Lindstedt, PhD, PMP, CBCPDavid Lindstedt, PhD, PMP, CBCP Director, Program Management Office of Distance Education and eLearning The Ohio State University Twitter: @lindsd1111
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4 Decision Making Theory: Recent and Accessible Research
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5 We Are often Terrible at DecisionsWe Are often Terrible at Decisions Take an “all or nothing” approach; do not explore enough options Acknowledge only supporting data (“confirmation bias”) Let short-term emotions unduly influence us Are overconfident in the correctness of our decisions PMOs play a huge role in decision making!
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6 Specific Techniques:Specific Techniques: (Chip and Dan Heath) Widen your options Reality-test your assumptions Attain distance before deciding Prepare to be wrong
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7 Technique #1: TripwiresTechnique #1: Tripwires What? Early detection devices for issues and risks Prompts for decisions Why? Figure out a project is in trouble before too far along Act on early indicators http://commons.wikimedia.org/w iki/File%3ABoiledFrog.png
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8 Technique #1: TripwiresTechnique #1: Tripwires How? Identify the problem / decision Set and monitor tripwires ACT when wires are tripped http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tripf lare#mediaviewer/File:Tripflare_ igniting.jpg
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9 Technique #2: PremortemTechnique #2: Premortem A premortem… imagines the future ‘death’ of a project and asks, ‘What killed it?’” (Decisive, pp. 202-203). Detect threats and risks ASAP (don’t wait for a post-mortem!) Manage and mitigate issues before becoming problems https://www.flickr.com/photos/104592893@N04/1014798 7845/in/photostream/
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10 Technique #2: PremortemTechnique #2: Premortem How? Imagine it is a specific date in the future (about six to nine months out) Imagine the project has gone horribly wrong Brainstorm all the reasons as to why the project was a failure Identify the top three to five most likely reasons Mitigate and manage these risks ASAP!
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11 Technique #3: PreparadeTechnique #3: Preparade “Let’s say it’s a year from now and our decision has been a wild success. It’s so great that there’s going to be a parade in our honor. Given that future, how do we ensure we’re ready for it?” (pp. 206-207). Identify and manage from strengths Assume the opposite of a premortem http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3 AArmed_Forces_Day_National_Event_Car diff_MOD_45151601.jpg
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12 Technique #4: Murder BoardTechnique #4: Murder Board “The Pentagon used a ‘murder board,’ staffed with experience officers, to try to kill ill-conceived missions.” (p. 96). List of projects that should be regularly reviewed for change or termination Why? Stakeholders are too emotionally tied to problematic projects Bad decisions often come from the “inside view” Need for “Devil’s Advocate”
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13 Technique #4: Murder BoardTechnique #4: Murder Board How? Watch for signs to reconstitute, re-scope, or terminate Enable transparent and productive discussions (along the lines presented in Death by Meeting) Most importantly, ask: “What would have to be true for this project come to successful completion?” http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ATripod_e asel.jpg
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14 Technique #5: Ooch-ingTechnique #5: Ooch-ing “To ooch is to construct small experiments to test one’s hypothesis.” (p. 135) Determine whether a particular decision is a good one (Predictions are dangerous and costly because they are so frequently inaccurate) http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AChemist ry_Lab.jpg
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15 Technique #5: Ooch-ingTechnique #5: Ooch-ing Examples: Conduct a customer focus group for product feedback Field-test a prototype of the product Mock up pencil and paper screen-prints for customer review Create a prototype using existing manufacturing equipment and calculating the cost of its production Place two slightly different versions of product functionality in front of the customer; see which is chosen more often (c.f., The Lean Startup )
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16 Wisdom of the RoomWisdom of the Room Choose one of the five techniques; remember your number! 1.Tripwire 2.Premortem 3.Preparade 4.Murder Board 5.Ooch-ing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musical_chairs
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