1. 1 Tripwires, Murder Boards, and Premortems: The Xtremely Decisive PMO David Lindstedt, PhD, PMP, CBCP

2. 2 WARNING! Human Interaction Required! https://www.flickr.com/photos/shankbone/12263334196

3. 3 David Lindstedt, PhD, PMP, CBCPDavid Lindstedt, PhD, PMP, CBCP  Director, Program Management  Office of Distance Education and eLearning  The Ohio State University  Twitter: @lindsd1111

4. 4 Decision Making Theory: Recent and Accessible Research

5. 5 We Are often Terrible at DecisionsWe Are often Terrible at Decisions  Take an “all or nothing” approach; do not explore enough options  Acknowledge only supporting data (“confirmation bias”)  Let short-term emotions unduly influence us  Are overconfident in the correctness of our decisions PMOs play a huge role in decision making!

6. 6 Specific Techniques:Specific Techniques: (Chip and Dan Heath)  Widen your options  Reality-test your assumptions  Attain distance before deciding  Prepare to be wrong

7. 7 Technique #1: TripwiresTechnique #1: Tripwires What?  Early detection devices for issues and risks  Prompts for decisions Why?  Figure out a project is in trouble before too far along  Act on early indicators http://commons.wikimedia.org/w iki/File%3ABoiledFrog.png

8. 8 Technique #1: TripwiresTechnique #1: Tripwires How?  Identify the problem / decision  Set and monitor tripwires  ACT when wires are tripped http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tripf lare#mediaviewer/File:Tripflare_ igniting.jpg

9. 9 Technique #2: PremortemTechnique #2: Premortem A premortem… imagines the future ‘death’ of a project and asks, ‘What killed it?’” (Decisive, pp. 202-203).  Detect threats and risks ASAP (don’t wait for a post-mortem!)  Manage and mitigate issues before becoming problems https://www.flickr.com/photos/104592893@N04/1014798 7845/in/photostream/

10. 10 Technique #2: PremortemTechnique #2: Premortem How?  Imagine it is a specific date in the future (about six to nine months out)  Imagine the project has gone horribly wrong  Brainstorm all the reasons as to why the project was a failure  Identify the top three to five most likely reasons  Mitigate and manage these risks ASAP!

11. 11 Technique #3: PreparadeTechnique #3: Preparade “Let’s say it’s a year from now and our decision has been a wild success. It’s so great that there’s going to be a parade in our honor. Given that future, how do we ensure we’re ready for it?” (pp. 206-207).  Identify and manage from strengths  Assume the opposite of a premortem http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3 AArmed_Forces_Day_National_Event_Car diff_MOD_45151601.jpg

12. 12 Technique #4: Murder BoardTechnique #4: Murder Board “The Pentagon used a ‘murder board,’ staffed with experience officers, to try to kill ill-conceived missions.” (p. 96).  List of projects that should be regularly reviewed for change or termination  Why?  Stakeholders are too emotionally tied to problematic projects  Bad decisions often come from the “inside view”  Need for “Devil’s Advocate”

13. 13 Technique #4: Murder BoardTechnique #4: Murder Board How?  Watch for signs to reconstitute, re-scope, or terminate  Enable transparent and productive discussions (along the lines presented in Death by Meeting)  Most importantly, ask: “What would have to be true for this project come to successful completion?” http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ATripod_e asel.jpg

14. 14 Technique #5: Ooch-ingTechnique #5: Ooch-ing “To ooch is to construct small experiments to test one’s hypothesis.” (p. 135)  Determine whether a particular decision is a good one  (Predictions are dangerous and costly because they are so frequently inaccurate) http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AChemist ry_Lab.jpg

15. 15 Technique #5: Ooch-ingTechnique #5: Ooch-ing Examples:  Conduct a customer focus group for product feedback  Field-test a prototype of the product  Mock up pencil and paper screen-prints for customer review  Create a prototype using existing manufacturing equipment and calculating the cost of its production  Place two slightly different versions of product functionality in front of the customer; see which is chosen more often (c.f., The Lean Startup )

16. 16 Wisdom of the RoomWisdom of the Room  Choose one of the five techniques; remember your number! 1.Tripwire 2.Premortem 3.Preparade 4.Murder Board 5.Ooch-ing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musical_chairs

17. 17 Want to see it all again?!?Want to see it all again?!? (It’s free…)