1. LEGACIES, LAGS, AND SHIFTING BASELINES: ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW RESTORATION IN A CHANGED AND CHANGING WORLD Ross M. Thompson, Allison King, Richard M. Kingsford, Ralph Mac Nally and N. LeRoy Poff

2. (CRICOS) #00212K Vörösmarty, et al. "Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity." Nature 467.7315 (2010): 555-561.

3. (CRICOS) #00212K Zarfl et al (2014)

4. (CRICOS) #00212K

5. 1M km 2 = 2x

6. (CRICOS) #00212K Sustainable Rivers Audit 2008

7. (CRICOS) #00212K Sustainable Rivers Audit 2008

8. (CRICOS) #00212K 2750 GL

9. (CRICOS) #00212K

10. What are the factors that determine the timing and magnitude of responses to environmental flows?

11. (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION TIME

12. (CRICOS) #00212K Crinia spp. Limnodynastes spp. Litoria spp. Reporting rate Period

13. (CRICOS) #00212K

14. LEGACIES = where the antecedent conditions determine whether a response is detectable to the management intervention

15. (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION TIME Legacy effects

16. (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION TIME Legacy effects

17. (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION TIME Legacy effects

18. (CRICOS) #00212K 18 Stewardson et al. 2012, Short term intervention monitoring on the Lower Goulburn River

19. (CRICOS) #00212K 19 Stewardson et al. 2012, Short term intervention monitoring on the Lower Goulburn River

20. LAGS = where there is a delay until a response to a management intervention is seen

21. (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION TIME Lags :

22. (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION TIME Lags : life history constraints

23. (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION TIME Lags : disturbance effects

24. (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION TIME Lags : numeric responses

25. (CRICOS) #00212K Watts et al. 2015, Long term intervention monitoring on the Edwards-Wakool River

26. (CRICOS) #00212K Watts et al. 2015, Long term intervention monitoring on the Edwards-Wakool River Yr1 Yr2   SPAWNING RESPONSE

27. SHIFTING BASELINES = where there is an underlying change in condition due to the effects of something other than the management intervention

28. (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION TIME Shifting baselines

29. (CRICOS) #00212K

30. What are the factors that determine the timing and magnitude of responses to environmental flows? A complex interaction between – Existing ecological condition Antecedent flow conditions – Timescale of taxa response relative to flows Life history traits – Underlying trends in condition Landuse impacts, climate change etc etc

31. (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION

32. (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION

33. (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION

34. (CRICOS) #00212K What are the factors that determine the timing and magnitude of responses to environmental flows? A complex interaction between – Existing ecological condition Antecedent flow conditions – Timescale of taxa response relative to flows Life history traits – Underlying trends in condition Landuse impacts, climate change etc etc

36. QUESTIONS?? LEGACIES, LAGS, AND SHIFTING BASELINES: ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW RESTORATION IN A CHANGED AND CHANGING WORLD Ross M. Thompson, Allison King, Richard M. Kingsford, Ralph Mac Nally and N. LeRoy Poff E-mail: ross.thompson@canberra.edu.au Session: S03 Global Perspectives on Environmental Flows Date: Wednesday, May 25, 2016 Time: 4:30 PM Presentation Room: 314