1. Driving the Future of ADAS: Navigating Consumer and Government Demand
Denis Ulicny
Senior Industry Analyst
WardsAuto

2. Purpose
To highlight how consumer demand and government regulations are defining the market for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)
Where the trends converge and work together
Where the trends diverge and one needs to lead the other
What are the options to make it happen

3. Global Trends
Significant trends that impact consumer/business/regulatory behavior
Can be regionally based or global
2 significant global trends are:
Demand for safety and security
The need for government to regulate
Others include:
People living longer
Connectivity
Concern for the environment
Increased demand for natural resources
Demand for convenience

4. Source: IIHS/HLDI

5. FMVSS Divided into 3 categories 100 series – Crash avoidance
105 – Hydraulic and electric brake systems
126 – Electronic stability control systems
138 – Tire pressure monitoring systems
200 series – Crashworthiness
208 – Occupant crash protection
214 – Side impact protection
300 series – Post-crash survivability

6. FMVSS - Results Between 1966 and 2014:
Annual vehicle deaths on the road decreased from 50,894 to 32,675
1966 – 54.9 deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled
2014 – 10.8 deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled
2015 witnessed a spike in motor vehicle fatalities
38,300 deaths (NSC estimate)
Boston Consulting Group estimates that wide availability of ADAS technologies could save nearly 10,000 lives and $251 Billion annually
Source: IIHS/HLDI

7. Automotive Safety – Need to Improve
2015 statistics have clearly caught the attention of regulators
Improvement from 1966 – 2014 is clear, but so is the need for further improvements, given the numbers
Growth in the number of vehicles in operation has grown from approximately 91 million (1967) to 258 million (2014)
Source: WardsAuto.com

8. Safety Is Maturing Over Time

9. Autonomous Driving Levels
Source: SAE

10. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)
The next phase of active safety
Most recognizable forms today include:
Adaptive Cruise Control
Park Assist
Lane Departure Warning/Lane Keep Assist
Rearview Camera
Blind Spot Detection
Forward Collision Avoidance(FCA)/Forward Collision Warning(FCW)
Automatic Emergency Braking

11. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)
Some lesser known systems include:
Adaptive Light Control
improves the headlamp illumination by means of continuous adaptation of the headlamps according to the current driving situation and current environment
Driver Drowsiness Detection
Steering pattern monitoring
Primarily uses steering input from electric power steering system.
Vehicle position in lane monitoring
Uses lane monitoring camera.
Driver eye/face monitoring
Requires a camera watching the driver's face.
Physiological measurement
Requires body sensors for measure parameters like brain activity, heart rate, skin conductance, muscle activity.

12. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)
Some lesser known systems include:
Hill Descent Control
Works in a similar fashion to adaptive cruise control, where the ABS controls each wheel’s speed
Intelligent Speed Adaptation
System that ensures that vehicle speed does not exceed a safe or legally enforced speed. In case of potential speeding, a human driver can be alerted, or the speed reduced automatically.

13. Driver Assistance Features
Source: IIHS

14. ADAS – Current Market % Factory Installation on U. S
ADAS – Current Market % Factory Installation on U.S. Vehicles – 2015 Model Year
Source: WardsAuto.com

15. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)
The market has been slow to develop due to:
Technical reluctance of the customer
Consumer needs to be better educated
Consumer needs to trust the technology
Limited levels of mandating by the federal government
Willingness of the consumer to pay doesn’t necessarily match the cost of the technology

16. Where the Trends Diverge
Cost to Consumer
Willingness
to Pay
Gap
Surround View Systems
$900
$380
$ (520)
Park Assist
$250
$190
$ (60)
Lane Departure Warning
$400
$170
$ (230)
Blind Spot Detection
$600
$270
$ (330)
Adaptive Cruise Control/Forward Collison Warning/Forward Collision Assist
$1,500
$470
$ (1,030)
Automatic Parking
$ 400
$230
$ (170)
Source: Boston Consulting Group/MEMA

17. Source: IIHS/HLDI

18. ADAS Adoption
Source: IIHS

19. Fully Autonomous – Ultimate ADAS
Some questions regarding full autonomy include:
Will weather affect it?
What about older vehicles not equipped?
Aftermarket availability and cost
Can the car be hacked?

20. Cyber Security – Something Else for the Consumer to be Concerned About
What motive(s) would someone have to hack a car’s system???
Data theft
Extortion/denial of service threat
Fraud and deception (altering or deleting logs)
Freight and goods theft
Ideological
Immobilization
General mischief
Premises security and burglary
Source: Knowledge Transfer Network

21. Cyber Security – What is Being Done to Make Sure it Doesn’t Happen?
Auto-ISAC (Information Sharing Advisory Center)
Initiated by Alliance for Automobile Manufacturers
Joined by Association of Global Automakers, and parts supplier Delphi
Creates a voluntary information sharing and analysis center for the industry
Intends to bring together 25 automotive manufacturer members with other industry and government stakeholders
Currently, 15 OEM’s are members
Source: Knowledge Transfer Network

22. ADAS and the Movement Towards Fully Autonomous Commercial Vehicles
A natural fit…some might argue even more than light vehicles
Over the Road
Off-Road
Incremental cost estimated at $30K per vehicle
Forecasts global sales of 8K units by 2025 and 182,000 units by 2035
Source: Frost & Sullivan (picture courtesy of Daimler)

23. Recent Happenings
Google to open test driving development center in Novi, Michigan
GM closes purchase of Cruise Automation
Google and FCA sign deal to build 100 self-driving minivans
Toyota made clear plans to invest $1B over the next 5 years to develop technology
Rearview cameras to be standard technology starting in 2018
20 manufacturers have committed to making forward collision warning and automatic emergency braking a standard feature by September, 2022

24. Conclusions
ADAS will continue to gain momentum as it responds to several major global trends
Safety and Security/Government regulation
U.S. consumers EXPECT their vehicles to be completely safe
Increase in the number of drivers and vehicles on the road increases chances for accidents
People living longer
Creates more drivers, and they will drive longer
Also will assist disabled drivers
Increased connectivity
Home, office, car…all the same thing
Convenience
Need for more useful time…creating more opportunities to be distracted
The exact timing isn’t etched in stone
Will be defined by industry cooperation and government mandate
The world will not come online together
What impact might companies like Google and Apple have???
Both are recruiting considerable automotive talent

25. What can be done to make sure ADAS happens sooner rather than later?
Government mandate
NHTSA leader considering changing procedure to allow more flexibility in regulations (dynamic, change over time)
Currently, a regulation takes 8 years to be completed
Build insurance company support
Consumer discounts (According to the Boston Consulting Group, Allianz offers a 20% discount on selected Subaru products equipped with Eyesight technology, which is a front crash avoidance system)
Insurance companies need more empirical data before they agree
Educating the public
Knowledge builds confidence
Allows you to search by year and make to see which technologies are optional or standard on which models
Incentivizing the sellers of the technology
Trading CAFÉ credits
Incentivizing the consumer
Similar to electrified vehicles or fuel efficient home improvements
Extend to retrofit market

26. ADAS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
Trends demand it
Government wants it
Society NEEDS it
The most important consideration remains getting the consumer to embrace it.