1. Key Insights on the Rust Belt and Mid-Atlantic Republican Primaries April 5, 2016 Producer: Justin C. Brown Edited by: Katharine Conlon Director: Afzal Bari

2. Education, Race and Religion Open Window of Opportunity for Kasich to Spoil Both Cruz and Trump RUST BELT AND MID-ATLANTIC GOP OUTLOOK Key TakeawaysDetails Trump and Kasich have history of success in the region Trump leads the pack with 4 wins between the two regions. Kasich and Cruz each only have one win in this collection of Rust Belt and Mid-Atlantic states. Kasich’s high approval ratings in his home state of Ohio are expected to spill over to neighboring states like Indiana and Pennsylvania. While this resulted in a good showing for Kasich in Michigan, Trump still beat the candidate by 10 points. Education and class dominates the demographic dilemma for candidates Seven states have high populations of both uneducated white voters and educated white voters, signaling a divide that should produce close margins. For example, Pennsylvania has a large proportion of college educated, white voters which would make the state favorable to Kasich. However, the state also has an above average number of working-class white voters that will likely favor Trump. Two states with similar education and race combinations that have already held nominating contests, Iowa and Michigan, were split between Cruz and Trump. Low religious adherence and small evangelical community is bad news for Cruz Ted Cruz is known to do exceptionally well among evangelical voters, however many of these states have relatively low rates of religious adherence, with almost half falling below the national average. States with better religious adherence rates are made up of largely Catholic voters. Minority vote may have subtle impactsWhile minority representation among the GOP is typically low, this demographic becomes especially important when looking towards the general election and may help prove (or disprove) the viability of current candidates. White GOP voters living in states with substantial minority populations may break established trends. States such as Maryland, New Jersey and New York have higher levels of racial integration than states in the South which may cause voters to behave differently. Key Insights on Rust Belt and Mid-Atlantic States Source: Ronald Brownstein, “Trump’s Path Runs Through the Rust Belt” The Atlantic, March 29, 2016; Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman, “What Would it Take to Turn Red States Blue?,” FiveThirtyEight, December 3, 2015. Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies, “Religious Congregations Membership Study 2010,” 2010. April 5, 2016 | Justin C. Brown 1

3. Donald Trump Has History of Close Wins in Nearby Primaries Analysis Donald Trump has fared the best within the GOP in these two regions, however he was unable to amass more than 40% of the vote in any of the states. John Kasich’s base is centered at the heart of these two regions in Ohio. The region’s highly urbanized population is also expected to help as his base consolidates in cities. ■ Donald Trump ■ Ted Cruz ■ John Kasich Republican Primary Winners and Future Primary Dates by State April 26 May 10 April 19 April 26 June 7 April 5 May 3 Mid-Atlantic States Rust Belt Source: Ronald Brownstein, “Trump’s Path Runs Through the Rust Belt” The Atlantic, March 29, 2016; Wilson Andrews, Matthew Bloch, Jeremy Bowers and Tom Giratikanon, “New York Times Primary Results and Calendar,” The New York Times, April 5, 2016; Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman, “What Would it Take to Turn Red States Blue?,” FiveThirtyEight, December 3, 2015. April 5, 2016 | Justin C. Brown WI IA IL KY MI OH VA IN WV PA NY CT, RI MD, DE NJ 2 RUST BELT AND MID-ATLANTIC GOP OUTLOOK

4. Trump’s Large Following of Non-College Whites Will Continue to Help Him in Upcoming Contests Analysis Non-college educated, white voters are widely known to be Donald Trump’s key base of support. Luckily for Trump, six of the ten upcoming primary states have large contingencies of these voters. While Ted Cruz also tends to do well among this population of voters, Cruz’s base of support tends to be more religious and evangelical than voters in this region. This may become a barrier for Cruz in upcoming primaries. ■ At or Above the National Average ■ Below the National Average *Denotes states that have already held their nominating contests Population of White, Non-College Educated Citizens by State Source: Ronald Brownstein, “Trump’s Path Runs Through the Rust Belt” The Atlantic, March 29, 2016; Wilson Andrews, Matthew Bloch, Jeremy Bowers and Tom Giratikanon, “New York Times Primary Results and Calendar,” The New York Times, April 5, 2016; Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman, “What Would it Take to Turn Red States Blue?,” FiveThirtyEight, December 3, 2015. April 5, 2016 | Justin C. Brown The national average of this group is 34% Rust Belt IA* IL* KY* MI* OH* VA* WI IN PA WV NY CT RI NJ DE MD Mid-Atlantic States 3 RUST BELT AND MID-ATLANTIC GOP OUTLOOK

5. John Kasich May See A Late Surge in Support As Educated, White Voters Are Prevalent Analysis This segment of the GOP is currently best suited to consolidate around John Kasich. The nominee has seen growth in support from college educated, white voters after Marco Rubio suspended his campaign in March. Both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz have struggled with this group of voters in the past, however Trump’s business ties throughout the BosWash corridor may help him navigate this tough gap. ■ At or Above the National Average ■ Below the National Average *Denotes states that have already held their nominating contests Population of White, College Educated Citizens by State Source: Ronald Brownstein, “Trump’s Path Runs Through the Rust Belt” The Atlantic, March 29, 2016; Wilson Andrews, Matthew Bloch, Jeremy Bowers and Tom Giratikanon, “New York Times Primary Results and Calendar,” The New York Times, April 5, 2016; Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman, “What Would it Take to Turn Red States Blue?,” FiveThirtyEight, December 3, 2015. April 5, 2016 | Justin C. Brown The national average of this group is 37% Rust Belt IA* IL* KY* MI* OH* VA* WI IN PA WV NY CT RI NJ DE MD Mid-Atlantic States 4 RUST BELT AND MID-ATLANTIC GOP OUTLOOK

6. Low Religious Adherence, Evangelical Presence Could End Cruz’s Hopes for Success Analysis Several states between these two regions have relatively low rates of religious adherence, which spells trouble for Ted Cruz who typically capitalizes on highly religious (specifically evangelical) voters. States with higher religious adherence in these areas tend to have considerably higher Catholic representation than evangelical. Religious Adherence Rate by State Source: Ronald Brownstein, “Trump’s Path Runs Through the Rust Belt” The Atlantic, March 29, 2016; Wilson Andrews, Matthew Bloch, Jeremy Bowers and Tom Giratikanon, “New York Times Primary Results and Calendar,” The New York Times, April 5, 2016; Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman, “What Would it Take to Turn Red States Blue?,” FiveThirtyEight, December 3, 2015. Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies, “Religious Congregations Membership Study 2010,” 2010. April 5, 2016 | Justin C. Brown Mid-Atlantic States Rust Belt IA* IL* KY* MI* OH* VA* WI IN PA WV NY CT RI NJ DE MD The national religious adherence rate is 49% ■ At or Above the National Average ■ Below the National Average *Denotes states that have already held their nominating contests 5 RUST BELT AND MID-ATLANTIC GOP OUTLOOK

7. Minority Population May Mean Little During Primaries But May Help Prove Candidate Electability in November April 5, 2016 | Justin C. Brown Source: Ronald Brownstein, “Trump’s Path Runs Through the Rust Belt” The Atlantic, March 29, 2016; Wilson Andrews, Matthew Bloch, Jeremy Bowers and Tom Giratikanon, “New York Times Primary Results and Calendar,” The New York Times, April 5, 2016; Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman, “What Would it Take to Turn Red States Blue?,” FiveThirtyEight, December 3, 2015. Analysis While minority representation among the GOP is typically low, this demographic become especially important when looking towards the general election and may help prove (or disprove) the viability of current candidates. Trump’s comments about Muslims, Mexicans and the KKK are expected to make his support among minorities almost non- existent. Non-White Population by State The national average of this group is 35% ■ At or Above the National Average ■ Below the National Average *Denotes states that have already held their nominating contests Rust Belt IA* IL* KY* MI* OH* VA* WI IN PA WV NY CT RI NJ DE MD Mid-Atlantic States 6 RUST BELT AND MID-ATLANTIC GOP OUTLOOK