1. 2012-2013 Winter Weather Outlook November 29 Update Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990.

3. 2012-2013 Winter Weather Outlook November 29 Update Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990.

4. Winter Weather Outlook for 2012-2013 Review of last season...500 millibar and mean flow pattern Currents Trends...Review of worldwide water temperature anomalies, including ENSO trends Forecast 500 millibar pattern (ECMWF, Analogs, Brazilian and Last 30 day trends) Forecast Temp (NCEP, ECMWF, Japanese, Brazilian, Analogs) Flow Pattern Index (FPI) and Arctic Potential Index (API) Our Forecast...December forecast flow pattern...T & P forecast December through February forecast flow pattern...T & P forecast December through February monthly forecast based on analog seasons Seasonal snowfall, seasonal hazards, drought and soil moisture Gulf of Mexico Fog Season Climatology

5. Comparisons to Last Season

6. L L H H Bitter Cold Pockets H

7. L H L H L H

8. L H L H L H L L

9. Current Trends

10. -PDO Tri-pole (-, +, -) Tri-pole (+, -, +) +AMO Weak El Niño Signal Central Pacific Based - - -+ + +

11. El Niño Territory Higher Wind Shear La Niña Territory Lower Wind Shear Neutral Slow increase into El Niño Territory Current ~+0.6C Forecast

17. FORECASTS Flow Pattern & Temperatures FORECASTS Flow Pattern & Temperatures

19. H H L

20. Brazilian December, 2012 – February, 2013 Forecast H H LL

21. H H L

22. H H L

23. L L H H Analogs December, 2012 – February, 2013 Forecast

24. CFSv2 December, 2012 – February, 2013 Forecast...OLD WARM COOL NORMAL

25. CFSv2 December, 2012 – February, 2013 Forecast...NEW COLD WARM

26. NCEP December, 2012 – February, 2013 Forecast COOL WARM

27. ECMWF December, 2012 – February, 2013 Forecast WARM COOL NORMAL

28. Japanese December, 2012 – February, 2013 Forecast COOL WARM COOL Correctly depicted last year’s weather pattern over the lower 48...

29. Brazilian December, 2012 – February, 2013 Forecast WARM COOL

31. Analogs December, 2012 – February, 2013 Forecast

32. OUR FORECASTS OUR FORECASTS

33. Flow Pattern Index (FPI) from Oct 1 – Dec 15 Forecast SLOWER FLOW PATTERN (Meridional) Blocking Inc Risk of Major Storms & Colder Faster FLOW PATTERN (Zonal) Dec Risk of Major Storms & Milder SANDY MODERATE NOR’EASTER Small Nor’easter

34. Flow Pattern Index (FPI) from Oct 1 – Dec 15 SLOWER FLOW PATTERN (Meridional) Blocking Inc Risk of Major Storms & Colder Faster FLOW PATTERN (Zonal) Dec Risk of Major Storms & Milder SANDY MODERATE NOR’EASTER Small Nor’easter Forecast to Decrease Mid to Late Dec SC data / Korean Model

35. Increased Risk of Milder Pacific Air Increased Risk of Colder Arctic Air & Major Eastern U.S. Winter Storm Minor Outbreak Plains/East Milder Pacific Air all Quads Forecast to Fall Mid to Late Dec Korean Model Arctic Potential Index (API) from Nov 20-Dec 15

36. H H L L L L H H H H 1 2 3 BITTER COLD BITTER COLD Trapped Dec 1-10 Trapped Dec 1-10 Milder Unsettled & Milder Drier & Milder LOOK FAMILIAR? Flow Pattern Outlook for December 1-20, 2012

37. L L L L H H H H H H MUCH COLDER Milder Stormy BITTER COLD Flow Pattern Outlook for December 20-31, 2012

39. H H L L Blow Torch Blow Torch Overpowering Weak Cent Pac +ENSO effects Overpowering slower flow pattern Pattern currently locked...will it change? If Siberian High remains put, this will be the winter pattern

40. Nov 29-Dec 6 Temperature Outlook...GFS +5 to +15F -10 to -20F L L

41. Dec 6-13 Temperature Outlook...GFS +5 to +15F -15 to -30F L L

42. 16 Day Worldwide Temperature Outlook...GFS

43. Composite 11 Day Analog 500hp Pattern for December L L H H H H L L L L COLDER

44. Composite 11 Day Analog Temperature Pattern for December

45. WETTER DRIER

46. Below Normal -2 to -4F -5 to -10F -3 to -6F Above Normal +2 to +4F +1 to +3F Near Normal Near Normal Above Normal +3 to +6F+4 to +8F (OLD) Temperature Outlook for December, 2012 -4 to -8F

47. (NEW) Temperature Outlook for December, 2012 +5 to +10F +3 to +6F +2 to +4F +3 to +6F -5 to -10F -4 to -8F -3 to -6F -4 to -8F -2 to -4F Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal Much Above? Below Normal Above Normal

48. Updated Precipitation Outlook for December, 2012 Near Normal Above Normal Below Normal Below Normal Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal

49. Projected Winter Flow Pattern Dec, 2012 – Feb, 2013 H H H H H H H H L L L L BITTER COLD BITTER COLD At Times the Pattern Will Revert Back to This MILD L L

50. Temperature Outlook for December, 2012 - February, 2013 Above Normal Above Normal Above Normal Below Normal Below Normal Below Normal +2 to +4F -3 to -6F +2 to +4F -5 to -10F -1 to -3F -2 to -4F Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal High Confidence High Confidence Lower Confidence Low Confidence Higher Confidence

51. Precipitation Outlook for December, 2012 - February, 2013 Below Normal Above Normal Below Normal Above Normal Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal Above Normal Major Winter Storm Signal 1 or 2 Block-Buster Storms?

52. Analog Temperature Pattern for December, 2012 COLDER

53. Analog Temperature Pattern for January, 2013 COLDER

54. Analog Temperature Pattern for February, 2013 COLDER

55. Analog Temperature Pattern for March, 2013 COLDER

56. Hazard Concerns for the 2012-2013 Winter Elevated risk of a hard freeze near the coast (Late Dec-Jan) Elevated risk of heavier than normal snowfall Elevated freezing rain risk (Jan-Feb) Some Drought Relief...still drier than normal! Analog seasons Indicate unsettled with well above normal mountain snow Well Below Normal Temperatures

59. Abnormally Dry (yellow ) Moderate Drought (tan) Severe Drought (red) Exceptional Drought (dark red)

62. Fog forms when warm, humid air from well offshore flows over cooler water near shore

63. Predicting fog comes down to forecasting extended periods of deep onshore flow

64. Marine fog can be seen with visible satellite imagery, assuming no clouds above Marine Fog Over the NW Gulf – 3:15 PM February 14, 2005

65. Fog season along the northwest Gulf coast runs from mid November through mid April Major Fog Closures by Month (2007-2012)

66. Small Patches – Channel Closure for a few Hours Possible Large Patches – Channel Closure for Most of a Day Possible Widespread – Channel Closure for Days Possible Water Temperature ( ˚F) South Texas Florida Panhandle Once coastal water temperatures drop below 60˚F widespread marine fog is possible

67. Lengthy fog events more likely with near-shore water temperatures below 60˚F Long-duration event unlikely Long-duration event likely

68. Widespread marine fog closed the Houston Ship Channel for 2-3 days in January of 2012 Water Temperature ( ˚F)

69. Bays and river outlets are more vulnerable to long- duration events due to cool water discharge Water Temperature ( ˚F) Galveston Vermilion Miss. River Bay St. Louis Mobile

71. Questions

72. Hazard Concerns for the 2012-2013 Winter Elevated risk of a hard freeze near the coast (Late Dec-Jan) Elevated risk of heavier than normal snowfall Elevated freezing rain risk (Jan-Feb) Some Drought Relief...still drier than normal! Analog seasons Indicate unsettled with well above normal mountain snow Well Below Normal Temperatures

73. Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7 Seasonal outlook forecasting Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification Offshore/marine forecasting year-round Customized weather websites Direct consultation with a meteorologist Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan Consulting Webinar Questions: fschmude@impactweather.com More information (877) 792-3220 sales@impactweather.com

74. Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990. 2012-2013 Winter Weather Outlook November 29 Update