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What Happened to Unplaced Graduates 2005-2015? GWU Workforce Institute April 14, 2016 Henry M. Sondheimer, M.D.

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Presentation on theme: "What Happened to Unplaced Graduates 2005-2015? GWU Workforce Institute April 14, 2016 Henry M. Sondheimer, M.D."— Presentation transcript:

1 What Happened to Unplaced Graduates 2005-2015? GWU Workforce Institute April 14, 2016 Henry M. Sondheimer, M.D.

2 Background Fate of unplaced graduates with special interest in unplaced URiM graduates. Small working group created across clusters (Academic Affairs, DPP, Med Ed) Used standard, available data bases: AAMC Student Record System (graduates) AMA/AAMC GMETrack (residency) AMA Masterfile (practice, not residency) CMS NPI (provider) 2

3 Sequence 1. Number of graduates (SRS) 2. Number unplaced at time of graduation (SRS) 3. Evaluate unplaced for a. Race/ethnicity b. Gender c. MCAT on entry to medical school d. School groups (HBCU, Puerto Rico, MCAT Top/Bottom 10) 4. When/if do unplaced at graduation appear in GMETrack? 5. Supplement GMETrack with practice data using MF and NPI 6. Calculate the percentage of graduates unqualified to practice medicine due to no GME. 3

4 Graduates without a residency at time of graduation – last ten years 4 Source: AAMC Student Record System Grad YearTotal GradUnplacedUnplaced % 2004-2005 15,7604182.7% 2005-2006 15,9274092.6% 2006-2007 16,1404652.9% 2007-2008 16,1684983.1% 2008-2009 16,4675693.5% 2009-2010 16,8355303.1% 2010-2011 17,3624742.7% 2011-2012 17,3444612.7% 2012-2013 18,1545773.2% 2013-2014 18,0735703.2% 2014-2015 18,7055893.1% Total 186,93755663.0%

5 Graduates without a residency at time of graduation – last eleven years 5 Data Source: AAMC Student Record System Grad YearAIANAsianBlackHispanicNon-CitizenOthers/UnknownWhiteTotal 2004-20057 (6.0%)84 (2.7%)46 (4.4%)35 (3.7%)11 (6.5%)39 (12.4%)196 (2.0%)418 (2.7%) 2005-20066 (7.3%)88 (2.9%)38 (3.6%)27 (2.6%)16 (8.6%)50 (5.6%)184 (1.9%)409 (2.6%) 2006-20072 (6.3%)74 (2.5%)53 (5.3%)35 (3.3%)26 (12.1%)59 (5.8%)216 (2.2%)465 (2.9%) 2007-20081 (1.7%)80 (2.6%)48 (4.7%)70 (6.2%)18 (8.3%)76 (9.8%)205 (2.1%)498 (3.1%) 2008-20093 (6.4%)98 (3.1%)55 (5.6%)77 (6.5%)27 (11.3%)88 (11.0%)221 (2.2%)569 (3.5%) 2009-20104 (5.1%)100 (3.2%)57 (5.3%)71 (5.9%)26 (9.6%)81 (10.0%)191 (1.9%)530 (3.1%) 2010-20114 (4.7%)66 (1.9%)55 (5.2%)74 (5.7%)24 (8.2%)70 (9.2%)181 (1.7%)474 (2.7%) 2011-20123 (3.4%)72 (2.1%)63 (5.7%)69 (5.6%)35 (12.9%)65 (6.7%)154 (1.5%)461 (2.7%) 2012-20136 (7.9%)90 (2.5%)83 (7.9%)95 (6.8%)31 (12.1%)71 (6.2%)201 (1.9%)577 (3.2%) 2013-20141 (1.4%)84 (2.3%)81 (7.3%)104 (7.2%)32 (11.3%)79 (6.7%)189 (1.8%)570 (3.2%) 2014-20152 (3.4%)107 (2.9%)86 (7.8%)92 (6.2%)30 (12.7%)72 (5.7%)200 (1.8%)589 (3.1%) total39 (4.9%)947 (2.6%)666 (5.7%)749 (5.6%)276 (10.5%)750 (7.6%)2139 (1.9%)5566 (3.0%)

6 Trend in medical graduate securing residency by race/ethnicity (Excluding Puerto Rican Schools) 6 Data: DW.STUDENT; graduates from US MD medical schools Grad YearAIANAsianBlackHispanicNon-CitizenOthers/UnknownWhiteTotal 2004-20057 (6.0%)84 (2.7%)46 (4.4%)27 (3.7%)11 (6.5%)39 (12.5%)196 (2.0%)410 (2.6%) 2005-20066 (7.3%)88 (2.9%)38 (3.6%)18 (2.2%)16 (8.6%)50 (5.6%)184 (1.9%)400 (2.5%) 2006-20072 (6.3%)74 (2.5%)53 (5.3%)27 (3.2%)25 (11.7%)59 (5.8%)215 (2.2%)455 (2.9%) 2007-20081 (1.7%)80 (2.6%)48 (4.7%)25 (2.9%)18 (8.3%)63 (8.3%)204 (2.1%)439 (2.8%) 2008-20093 (6.4%)97 (3.1%)55 (5.6%)27 (2.9%)26 (11.0%)63 (8.3%)220 (2.2%)491 (3.0%) 2009-20104 (5.1%)99 (3.1%)57 (5.3%)29 (3.0%)26 (9.8%)65 (8.3%)184 (1.8%)464 (2.8%) 2010-20114 (4.7%)65 (1.9%)55 (5.2%)25 (2.4%)24 (8.2%)59 (7.9%)181 (1.7%)413 (2.4%) 2011-20123 (3.4%)72 (2.1%)63 (5.7%)36 (3.5%)35 (13.0%)62 (6.4%)153 (1.5%)424 (2.5%) 2012-20135 (6.7%)89 (2.5%)83 (7.9%)48 (4.2%)31 (12.1%)67 (5.9%)200 (1.9%)523 (2.9%) 2013-20141 (1.4%)83 (2.2%)81 (7.3%)45 (3.8%)32 (11.3%)79 (6.7%)188 (1.8%)509 (2.9%) Total36 (4.9%)831 (2.5%)579 (5.5%)307 (3.2%)244 (10.2%)606 (7.1%)1,925 (1.9%)4,528 (2.7%)

7 Trend in medical graduate securing residency by race/ethnicity (Excluding HBCU) 7 Data: DW.STUDENT; graduates from US MD medical schools Grad YearAIANAsianBlackHispanicNon-CitizenOthers/UnknownWhiteTotal 2004-20057 (6.1%)80 (2.6%)40 (4.5%)34 (3.7%)11 (7.1%)39 (12.4%)196 (2.0%)407 (2.6%) 2005-20066 (7.4%)87 (2.9%)36 (3.9%)27 (2.7%)15 (8.8%)49 (5.5%)184 (1.9%)404 (2.6%) 2006-20072 (6.3%)72 (2.4%)38 (4.5%)35 (3.3%)21 (10.5%)59 (5.9%)216 (2.2%)443 (2.8%) 2007-20081 (1.7%)79 (2.6%)30 (3.5%)70 (6.3%)16 (8.0%)75 (9.8%)205 (2.1%)476 (3.0%) 2008-20093 (6.4%)96 (3.1%)41 (5.0%)76 (6.5%)24 (10.6%)88 (11.1%)220 (2.2%)548 (3.4%) 2009-20104 (5.2%)100 (3.2%)43 (4.7%)70 (5.9%)24 (9.3%)80 (10.0%)191 (1.9%)512 (3.1%) 2010-20114 (4.7%)66 (1.9%)39 (4.4%)73 (5.7%)22 (7.9%)70 (9.2%)178 (1.7%)452 (2.6%) 2011-20123 (3.5%)72 (2.1%)50 (5.5%)69 (5.6%)35 (13.5%)64 (6.6%)153 (1.5%)446 (2.6%) 2012-20136 (7.9%)89 (2.5%)69 (7.8%)93 (6.7%)30 (12.3%)71 (6.2%)201 (1.9%)559 (3.1%) 2013-20141 (1.4%)84 (2.3%)64 (6.8%)101 (7.1%)31 (11.5%)79 (6.8%)189 (1.8%)549 (3.1%) Total37 (5.1%)825 (2.5%)450 (5.1%)648 (5.5%)229 (10.1%)674 (7.8%)1,933 (1.9%)4,796 (2.9%)

8 Proportion Unplaced By Type of Medical School of Graduation 8 MCAT Low 10: MCAT Top 10: (In the order of low to high of 3-yr average MCAT for matriculating class of 2006-2008) Grad YearHBCUPR SchoolsMCAT Bottom 10MCAT Top 10RestTotal 2004-200511 (5.0%)8 (3.8%)13 (2.1%)52 (4.2%)334 (2.5%)418 (2.7%) 2005-20065 (2.5%)9 (4.2%)11 (1.7%)53 (3.9%)331 (2.4%)409 (2.6%) 2006-200722 (10.2%)10 (4.5%)18 (2.8%)57 (4.3%)358 (2.6%)465 (2.9%) 2007-200822 (9.0%)59 (21.5%)19 (3.0%)58 (4.4%)340 (2.5%)498 (3.1%) 2008-200921 (9.0%)78 (26.8%)19 (2.9%)65 (4.9%)386 (2.8%)569 (3.5%) 2009-201018 (7.9%)66 (24.5%)19 (2.8%)49 (3.7%)378 (2.6%)530 (3.1%) 2010-201122 (8.9%)61 (21.9%)17 (2.3%)45 (3.4%)329 (2.2%)474 (2.7%) 2011-201215 (5.9%)37 (16.4%)18 (2.5%)52 (4.0%)339 (2.3%)461 (2.7%) 2012-201318 (7.3%)54 (20.1%)26 (3.5%)40 (3.0%)439 (2.8%)577 (3.2%) 2013-201421 (8.1%)61 (22.3%)27 (3.5%)52 (3.8%)409 (2.7%)570 (3.2%) Total175 (7.4%)443 (17.5%)187 (2.7%)523 (4.0%)3,643 (2.5%)4,971 (3.0%)

9 Unplaced Graduates by Gender – Last 10 Years 9 Grad Year.2FemaleMaleTotal 2004-2005166 (2.2%)252 (3.0%)418 (2.7%) 2005-2006174 (2.2%)235 (2.9%)409 (2.6%) 2006-2007207 (2.6%)258 (3.1%)465 (2.9%) 2007-2008225 (2.8%)273 (3.3%)498 (3.1%) 2008-2009227 (2.8%)342 (4.1%)569 (3.5%) 2009-2010199 (2.4%)331 (3.8%)530 (3.1%) 2010-2011190 (2.3%)284 (3.2%)474 (2.7%) 2011-2012186 (2.2%)275 (3.0%)461 (2.7%) 2012-2013215 (2.5%)362 (3.8%)577 (3.2%) 2013-2014216 (2.5%)354 (3.7%)570 (3.2%) 2014-2015196 (2.2%)393 (4.0%)589 (3.1%) Total2204 (2.4%)3362 (3.5%)5566 (3.0%)

10 MCAT Scores at Entry – Placed vs. Unplaced 10 Note: unplaced graduates on average have a lower MCAT score than placed graduates

11 Mean MCAT Scores – By Race/Ethnicity 2012 -2014 Grads 11 Note: mean MCAT scores for graduates

12 First Year on Duty in GMETrack for Unplaced Graduates 12 Note: Matched to GME On Duty First Year Resident Survey Data – GMETrack

13 Current Status of Unplaced Graduates - 2005-2014 13 Note: GMETrack, AMA MF, CMS NPI Grad YearTotal GradUnplacedGMETrackG-/AMA+G-/A-/NPI+GANU-GANUnplaced %Final Unplaced % 2004-200515760418294278329892.65%0.56% 2005-2006159274092792912320892.57%0.56% 2006-20071614046531328123531122.88%0.69% 2007-20081616849831429243671313.08%0.81% 2008-20091646756934734284091603.46%0.97% 2009-20101683553031126193561743.15%1.03% 2010-2011173624742180332512232.73%1.28% 2011-2012173444611830131962652.66%1.53% 2012-20131815457758013715063.18%2.79% 2013-2014180755700013 5573.15%3.08% Total16823249712317173175266523062.95%1.37%

14 Google search the 0.6–0.8% - 2006 graduates 89 graduates from 2006 unfound in study Used google, doximity, linkedin, facebook, NY Times weddings, ancestry.com Did not spend a dime (Intellius) 38 (43%) no job found – usually could find phone #, did not call or email or contact anyone 14

15 Google search the 0.6–0.8% - 2006 21 in not-for-profit health care, non-clinical NIH researcher, MD/PhD Computational biologist, Harvard U 14 in for-profit world Partner at Oracle Investment Management, Inc (MBA) Partner, Flagship Ventures, elected a 2014 Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum 6 in practice in Canada, 2 in U.S., 1 in Taiwan 4 authors/preacher 3 OMF Surgery 15

16 Where did they go to medical school? 2 from Puerto Rico schools (1 Caribe, 1 Ponce) 0 from Howard, Morehouse, Meharry 0 from “MCAT bottom 10” 21 from “MCAT top 10” Harvard 6, Columbia 4, Stanford 3, Hopkins 2, WUSL 2, etc. 16

17 17

18 Armand Hammer, M.D. Columbia College of Physicians and Surgeons Class of 1921 CEO of Occidental Petroleum 18

19 19

20 Robin Cook, M.D. Columbia College of Physicians and Surgeons Class of 1966 Author of Coma and 30+ other books 20

21 21

22 Matt Eisman, M.D. 22 Columbia College of Physicians and Surgeons Class of 1998 Host of American Ninja Warrior

23 23

24 Jennifer Ashton, M.D. Columbia College of Physicians and Surgeons Class of 2000 Good Morning America correspondent 24

25 Conclusions - 1 1. 3% of U.S. M.D. graduates unplaced upon graduation each year (2.6% to 3.5%) 2. Women consistently begin GME at a higher percentage than men. 3. URiM graduates consistently place less well at time of graduation than whites. Hispanic data greatly affected by island schools. (Black data not significantly affected by HBCUs) 4. MCAT Bottom 10 place better than MCAT top 10 5. Almost all unplaced graduates appear in GMETrack, or AMA MF, or CMS NPI. 25

26 Conclusions - 2 6. Actual percentage of graduates not qualified to enter practice (never entered GME) is 0.6 – 0.8% 7. Of those who never enter GME, a large percent are graduates of “Ivy League” medical schools. 26

27 27

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