1. THE MARIKANA CONFLICT AND HOW FACILITATION COULD ASSIST Presented to Tokiso by John Brand 11 November 2012

2. INTRODUCTION

3. CONTENT The Marikana Conflict – a tentative diagnosis Manifestations Causes Trigger Aggravators Moderators Some important facts The industrial relations context How facilitation could assist?

4. THE MARIKANA CONFLICT DYNAMIC

5. THE MARIKANA CONFLICT DYNAMIC 5 MANIFESTATIONS MODERATORS AGGRAVATORS CAUSES TRIGGER

6. THE MARIKANA CONFLICT DYNAMIC MANIFESTATIONS MODERATORS AGGRAVATORS CAUSES TRIGGER “THE SOCIAL WAGE” HOUSING ELECTRICITY SEWERAGE HEALTH WATER ROADS REFUSE REMOVAL SECURITY EDUCATION TRANSPORT WORKING CONDITIONS HEALTH & SAFETY WAGE DIFFERENTIALS LABOUR BROKERS DISCRIMINATION MIGRANT LABOUR LACK OF CONCERN LACK OF RESPECT POLITICIANS NUM BEAUROCRATIC CORRUPT CONFLICTED SHOP STEWARDS BARGAINING STRUCTURES OVER CENTRALISED BARGAINING SKILLS NOT INTEREST BASED POOR PREPARATION LACK OF TRI- PARTITE DIALOGUE IMPLATS POOR POLICING POWER APPROACH WEAK NEGOTIATION MISTRUST UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS INACCURATE PERCEPTIONS PAST UNRESOLVED CONFLICT DIVIDED CONSTITUENCIES ILLITERACY INNUMERACY DEMONIZING WEAK DEMOCRACY POOR COMMUNICATION POLITICAL OPPORTUNISTS POOR LEADERSHIP COMPROMISED UNIONS THE CHURCH NEED FOR PAY CORRUPT CONFLICTED REMOTE THE MEDIA MONEY LENDERS RECOVERY ATTORNEYS UNDEMOCRATIC LACK OF TIERS ILL-INFORMED MISREPRESENTATION VERY ADVERSARIAL POLICE ACTION DEATH INTIMIDATION VIOLENCE UNPROTECTED STRIKE DISREGARD OF PROCEDURES NEW PLAYERS AMCU Workers reps Church ARRESTS TRIALS REMOTE ANC ALIGNED IDEOLOGICAL POLITICS COMPANIES NATIONALISATION BEE DEALS FARLAM COMMISSION POOR MEDIATION LACK OF BALLOTS

7. SOME IMPORTANT FACTS

8. –The average South African worker earns R3 000 per month –59% have pension –40% have medical aid –77% have UIF –Rock drillers are in the top earning 25% of formal sector employees –The top 25% of formal sector employees earn R7 500 per month and more –The top 10% of formal sector employees start at R15 000 per month Few have all 3

9. SOME IMPORTANT FACTS (cont) –Only 4 out of 10 adults work in South Africa –7 out of 10 adults work in the rest of the world –Therefore only 7.3 million out of 32.9 million adults work in South Africa –Therefore rock drillers are in the top 6% of adult earners in South Africa –Rock drill operators earn more than entry level teachers in South Africa –Greek teachers earn R8 392 per month –Indian high tech employees earn R6000 per month

10. SOME IMPORTANT FACTS (cont) –Lonmin workers did not get a 22% increase as a result of the strike –Actually the maximum increase at Lonmin was 7.7% to the lowest grade –The actual increase to rock drillers at Lonmin was 3% –Lonmin workers lost +- 12% of annual wages in the strike due to no work no pay –Some Lonmin workers received a R2 000 return to work bonus –+- 9000 Lonmin contract workers got nothing

11. SOME IMPORTANT FACTS (cont) –All lost more in lost wages than they got in wage increases –R12.5 billion reduction in export revenues in 2012 –Direct losses in gold and platinum amounted to R10.1 billion –Coal losses R180 million –GDP growth forecast down from 3% to 2.5%

12. THE INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS CONTEXT

13. OUTCOMES IN RECENT CENTRALISED BARGAINING

14. OUTCOMES IN PUBLIC SECTOR CENTRALISED BARGAINING 14 PUBLIC SECTOR STRIKEMUNICIPAL WORKERS STRIKE Time period20102011 Duration of strike3 weeks2 weeks 2 days Wages lost (no work no pay)(2% per week) 6% annual salary lost4.2% annual salary lost Apparent gain (difference between employer offer at start of strike and settlement) (7.5 - 6.5) = 1% "gained"0.0% Actual gain/loss (diff. of wages lost and apparent gain) (1 - 6) = 5% lost(0 - 4.2) = 4.2% lost Number of weeks/years for workers to recover actual loss using apparent gain 156 weeks / 3 yearsNever Reported violence Intimidation, rubber bullets, water cannons, death, dismissal Service interruption, destruction of property, intimidation Reported cost to employerEstimated cost to South African economy R1 billion per day -

15. OUTCOMES IN PRIVATE SECTOR CENTRALISED BARGAINING 15 NATIONAL ROAD FREIGHT STRIKE METAL INDUSTRY STRIKE CHEMICAL AND PETROLEUM INDUSTRY STRIKE MINING INDUSTRY STRIKE (DIAMOND) MINING INDUSTRY STRIKE (COAL) MINING INDUSTRY STRIKE (GOLD) CLEANER SECTOR STRIKE MUNICIPAL WORKERS STRIKE 2011 Duration of strike 6 days2 weeks3 weeks2 weeks1 week 3 days4 days3 weeks2 weeks 2 days Wages lost (no work no pay) 2.1% annual salary lost 4% annual salary lost 6% annual salary lost 4% annual salary lost 2.3% annual salary lost 2% annual salary lost 6% annual salary lost 4.2% annual salary lost Apparent gain (difference between employer offer at start of strike and settlement) (9 - 7.5) = 1.5% "gained" (8 - 7) = 1% "gained" (10 - 7) = 3% "gained" (8.5 - 7) = 1.5% "gained" (10 - 7) = 3% "gained" (8 - 7.5) = 0.5% "gained" (10 - 7.5) = 2.5% "gained" (10.5 - 6) = 4.5% "gained" (8 - 5) = 3% "gained" (7.5 - 7) = 0.5% "gained" (10 - 9) = 1% "gained" (8 - 6) = 2% "gained (8.5 - 6.5) = 2% "gained" 0.0%

16. OUTCOMES IN PRIVATE SECTOR CENTRALISED BARGAINING (cont.) 16 NATIONAL ROAD FREIGHT STRIKE METAL INDUSTRY STRIKE CHEMICAL AND PETROLEUM INDUSTRY STRIKE MINING INDUSTRY STRIKE (DIAMOND) MINING INDUSTRY STRIKE (COAL) MINING INDUSTRY STRIKE (GOLD) CLEANER SECTOR STRIKE MUNICIPAL WORKERS STRIKE Actual gain/loss (diff. of wages lost and apparent gain) (1.5 - 2.1) = 0.6% lost (1 - 4) = 3% lost (3 - 4) = 1% lost (1.5 - 6) = 4.5% lost (3 - 6) = 3% lost (0.5 - 4) = 3.5% lost (2.5 - 4) = 1.5% lost (4.5 - 2.3) = 2,2% gained (3 - 2.3) = 0.7% gained (0.5 - 2) = 1.5% lost (1 - 2) = 1% lost (2 - 6) = 4% lost (0 - 4.2) = 4.2% lost Number of weeks/years for workers to recover actual loss using apparent gain 41.6 weeks / 8 months Highest paid workers - 104 weeks / 2 years Lowest paid workers - 34.67 weeks / 6 months Majority workers - 104 weeks / 2 years Lowest paid workers - 52 weeks / 1 year Skilled workers - 208 weeks / 4 years Unskilled workers - 41.60 weeks / 8 months Lowest paid employees - 18.49 weeks / 3 months All other employees - 27.73 weeks / 5 months 41.60 weeks / 8 months - 83.20 weeks / 1 year 6 months 78 weeks / 1 year 5 months Never

17. OUTCOMES IN PRIVATE SECTOR CENTRALISED BARGAINING (cont.) 17 NATIONAL ROAD FREIGHT STRIKE METAL INDUSTRY STRIKE CHEMICAL AND PETROLEUM INDUSTRY STRIKE MINING INDUSTRY STRIKE (DIAMOND) MINING INDUSTRY STRIKE (COAL) MINING INDUSTRY STRIKE (GOLD) CLEANER SECTOR STRIKE MUNICIPAL WORKERS STRIKE Reported violence Petrol bombs, damage to property, intimidation, assault, rubber bullets, arrests, injury Intimidation, malicious damage to property, assault, arrests, blockades, stone assault Fuel shortages, violence, intimidation Rubber bullets --Intimidation, assault Service interruption, destruction of property, intimidation Reported cost to employer --Fuel retailers R2 billion and taxi industry R35 million --$25 million per day in output lost -

18. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF WORKING DAYS LOST

19. THE FREQUENCY AND EXTENT OF STRIKE ACTION 19 Working days lost through industrial action per 1,000 employees, annual average 2005–2009 Source: EIRO

20. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF WORKING DAYS LOST –All European countries 2005 – 2009 Average 30.6 working days lost per 1,000 employees Maximum 159.4 Minimum 0 –South Africa 2006 – 2011 Average 507 working days lost per 1,000 employees Maximum 1593 Minimum 36 Highest in the world Most violent in the world 20

21. HOW FACILITATION COULD ASSIST? –For a long term solution facilitation could: Help set the table properly – The process should be inclusive of all interested parties  “riots are the voices of the unheard” – Martin Luther King Jr. 21

22. HOW FACILITATION COULD ASSIST? –For a long term solution facilitation could (cont): Help the parties conduct a thorough problem diagnosis – It should not start with proposed solutions  “Wisely, and slow. They stumble that run fast” – William Shakespeare – It should not start with the exclusion of certain solutions  ‘’Every dimwit editor who sees himself as the source of all dreary blanc – mange plain porridge unleavened literature, licks his guillotine and eyes the neck of any author who dares to speak above a whisper or write above a nursery rhyme” – Ray Bradbury – It could assist in identifying all the underlying causes, aggravators, moderators and manifestations – It could help the parties gather reliable statistical, financial and other data – “Knowledge itself is power” – Francis Bacon 22

23. HOW COULD FACILITATION COULD ASSIST? –For a long term solution facilitation could (cont): Help the parties conduct a thorough problem diagnosis (cont) – It could facilitate an analysis of what is working and what is not  Insanity is “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” – Albert Einstein – It could facilitate a dialogue about what needs, interests and concerns parties believe are not being met  “None so deaf as those that will not hear. None so blind as those that will not see” – Matthew Henry 23

24. HOW FACILITATION COULD ASSIST? –For a long term solution facilitation could (cont): Help the parties conduct a comprehensive exploration of options – It could help generate options to address all the identified problems  “No idea is so outlandish that it should not be considered with a searching but at the same time steady eye” – Winston Churchill – It could help the parties to listen to expert economists, IR specialists, dispute resolvers, academics, judges, lawyers and the like  “The way of a fool is right in his own eyes, but a wise man listens to advice” - Proverbs 12:15 – It could ensure that solution generation is separated from solution evaluation  “For low among dunces is his place, who hastens to accept or to reject” - Dante 24

25. HOW COULD FACILITATION ASSIST? –For a long term solution facilitation could (cont): Help the parties to conduct a thorough evaluation of all options – It could assist the parties to weigh the pro’s and con’s of each option  “I approve designs not because I think I am more gifted or somebody who can see ahead three or four years from now, but just to make sure that the design is a logical, rational decision, taken after analysing pro’s and con’s.” – Carols Ghosn – It could help the parties to cost the options  “The fashion of the world is to avoid cost, and you encounter it.” – William Shakespeare 25

26. HOW COULD FACILITATION ASSIST? –For a long term solution facilitation could (cont): Help the parties to choose workable solutions – It could help the parties define the solutions accurately  “Fast is fine but accuracy is everything” - Xenophon – It could ensure that the parties stipulate who will do what, when – “Ideas without action are worthless” – Helen Keller – It could help the parties determine who is accountable for solutions  “He that is good for making excuses is seldom good for anything else” – Benjamin Franklin – It could assist the parties to design appropriate review and monitoring processes  “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.” – Milton Friedman 26

27. 27 CLAIMER + = MEDIOCRE / MEDIOCRE OUTCOME WE NEED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THIS…

28. 28 PROBLEM SOLVER + = GREAT/GREAT OUTCOME TO THIS

29. Thank you