1. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info Better, Faster, Cheaper: Environmental Remediation Process Optimization Building confidence starts early Paul NATHANAIL, Eurodemo Consortium & LQM, University of Nottingham, UK paul@lqm.co.uk US EPA Brownfields 2006, 13-15 November 2006

2. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info The challenge of innovation “And it ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. The innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new” »- Machiavelli,1505

3. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info The need for innovation –“If you always do what you did, you will always get what you got, which is fine if that’s what you want, but isn’t if it’s not.” - Anon -

4. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info

5. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info www.eurodemo.info to make demonstration of promising soil and groundwater technologies easier to implement, to harmonise performance evaluation of demonstrated technologies and to generate an overview of existing funding opportunities and already demonstrated technologies

6. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info The conventional roadmap from research to market START 12 3 4 5 6 7 Innovative Technology / Technique Lab/Pilot-scale assessment conducted? Regulatory conflicts? Other End User Conflicts? Site characteristics defined? Funding obtained? Conduct Demonstration (Successful) Report Disseminate information Make available at the market GOAL 8

7. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info Tackled Milestones (1) START 12 3 4 5 6 7 Innovative Technology / Technique Lab/Pilot-scale assessment conducted? Regulatory conflicts? Other End User Conflicts? Site characteristics defined? Funding obtained? Conduct Demonstration (Successful) Report Disseminate information Make available at the market GOAL 8

8. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info Tackled Milestones (2) START 12 3 4 5 6 7 Innovative Technology / Technique Lab/Pilot-scale assessment conducted? Regulatory conflicts? Other End User Conflicts? Predicted Operating Window & Site characteristics defined? Funding obtained? Conduct Demonstration (Successful) Report Disseminate information Make available at the market GOAL 8 Operating Window Defined? 7a

9. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info Tackled Milestones (3) START 12 3 4 5 6 7 Innovative Technology / Technique Lab/Pilot-scale assessment conducted? Regulatory conflicts? Other End User Conflicts? Predicted Operating Window & Site characteristics defined? Funding obtained? Conduct Demonstration (Successful) Report Disseminate information Make available at the market GOAL 8 Operating Window Defined? 7a

10. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info Operating Window Combination of contaminant, environmental and site circumstance in which A given remediation technology will Almost certainly achieve Project remedial objectives Operating Wall Combination of contaminant, environmental and site circumstance in which A given remediation technology will Almost certainly FAIL TO achieve Project remedial objectives

11. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) Natural attenuation (NA): combined effect of physical, chemical and biological subsurface processes (no human intervention) to reduce contaminant mass and/or concentration and/or toxicity MNA: use of NA processes to demonstrably meet site- specific remediation objectives 1996 MNA at 17,000 USA sites where shallow groundwater contaminated with BTEX from LUSTs http://www.howtomna.com/ - free online introduction to MNAhttp://www.howtomna.com/

12. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info Operating windows aka operating envelopes the region bounded by upper and lower operational limits for one or more critical variables within which a technology or process is likely to operate most effectively with respect to a desired purpose. can be used as both a performance optimisation tool and a decision support tool ProcessOperating Window Type Operating Window Description AviationEnvironmentalRun-way conditions suitable to land a plane safely Offshore Drilling EnvironmentalSea conditions suitable to drill safely Marine Oil Spill Clean-Up TemporalTime periods in which clean-up methods are effective Examples where concept was used to assist decision making:

13. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info Defining Operating Windows for MNA Steps Involved: Step 1: Collecting the data for sites with contaminant plumes Step 2: Developing a statistical model to predict the viability of MNA Step 3: Validating the predictive model Step 4: Using the predictive model to define operating windows for MNA Current status of the research

14. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info Step 1: data collection Petroleum Storage FacilitySoutheast EnglandEnglandYes Service StationNorth CarolinaUSAYes George Air Force BaseCaliforniaUSAYes Patrick Air Force BaseFloridaUSAYes Hill Air Force BaseUtahUSAYes U.S. Coast Guard Air StationMichiganUSANo Bemidji Crude Oil Spill SiteMinnesotaUSAYes Gas Manufacturing FacilityColoradoUSAYes Fort McCoyWisconsinUSANo Service StationPerthAustraliaNo Service StationSouthern TaiwanTaiwanNo Service StationSouthern TaiwanTaiwanYes U.S. Coast Guard Support CentreNorth CarolinaUSAYes U.S. Marine Corps Air StationSouth CarolinaUSAYes U.S. Naval BaseCaliforniaUSAYes Service StationNorth CarolinaUSAYes Vandenberg AFB Site 60CaliforniaUSAYes Eglin Air Force BaseFloridaUSANo Myrtle BeachSouth CarolinaUSANo Gas Manufacturing FacilityDusseldorfGermanyNo Vandenberg AFB BXSS SiteCaliforniaUSAYes Mobile Home ParkNorth CarolinaUSANo Chemical Manufacturing FacilityNew JerseyUSAYes Electric Generator PlantAlaskaUSAYes Wurtsmith AFB Crash SiteMichiganUSAYes Service Station-USANo Service StationWashingtonUSANo Paint Production FacilityNorthern ItalyItalyNo FactorySoutheast AustraliaAustraliaNo Gas Manufacturing FacilityAlbertaCanadaNo

15. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info Step 2: statistical model Wald'sexp(β) PredictorβSE βX2X2 dfp(odds ratio) Constant-2.5111.3223.60610.0580.081 MAXBTEX (mg/l)-0.0230.0114.22910.0400.977 GWV (m/day)1.8881.3072.08610.1496.604 DIST (m)0.0140.0066.32110.0121.014 INT (GWV x DIST)-0.0100.0045.69310.0170.990

16. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info Step 3: validation SiteFacilityLocationCountryMNAPrimary Reference Viable 1Arvida Research SiteNorth CarolinaUSANoBorden et al., (1995) 2Service StationMichiganUSANoWilson et al., (1994) 3LandfillMichiganUSAYesRavi et al., (1998) 4Manufacturing FacilityEastern SeaboardUSAYesDavis et al., (1994) 5Fuel Depot--YesSlenders et al., (2005)

17. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info MNA operating window for BTEX Operating window within which >50 % probability MNA viable remediation option for the protection of a downgradient receptor when GWV is 1.0 m/day

18. www.lqm.co.uk paul@lqm.co.uk www.nottingham.ac.ukwww.euodemo.info If you would like copies of this presentation, of either tool or further information please email me (thanks to blackberry, I can reply promptly!)