1. TV or Not TV Eli Noam Columbia University, Columbia Institute for Tele-Information FCC Washington, DC March 2016 1

2. Outline Beyond Linear TV: Technology Beyond the TV Industry: Cloud TV Beyond TV Regulation: the Re- emergence of Telecom-style Regulation

3. http://media-2.web.britannica.com/eb-media/31/71331-004-CDC77097.jpg 1940s -70s: 1st Generation Television: Analog Over-the-air broadcasting 3

4. 1980s, the 2nd Generation of TV: Multichannel 4

5. 3 rd Generation of TV: Digital TV

6. The 4 th Generation of Media: Online

7. Speed (Kbps) Trends 7

8. “Sarnoff Rate”: TV progresses at 4-6% CAGR 8

10. * Outline Beyond Linear TV: Technology Beyond the TV Industry: Cloud TV Beyond TV Regulation: the Re-emergence of Telecom- style Regulation

11. Server Farm: Google 11 http://www.blogcdn.com/www.engadget.com/media/2012/10/google-datacenter-tech- 02.jpg

12. Amazon Server Farm (Oregon)

13. 13

14. Apple server farm 14 http://cultofmac.cultofmaccom.netdna-cdn.com/wp- content/uploads/2011/04/apple_NC_datacenter_2.png

15. Facebook Server Farm (Sweden)

16. Microsoft Server Farm (Washington)

17. Cloud Provider  Interoperating  Coordinating  Editing  Marketing  Financing User Generated Content Content Storage Applications User 1User 2

18. Why Will Clouds Dominate Media? 18 1. Integrator 2. Standards 3. Convenience 4. Law and Regulation 5. Finance 6. Marketing, Brands, Quality Control 7. Privacy and Security 8. Personalization

19. 19

20. Old and New Media - Average Concentration by Region

21. Media Industry Market Concentration and Investment Asset Intensity

22. Cloud A Cloud B Cloud C

23. Cloud A Cloud B Cloud C Self-Connection by Each User

24. User 24 Storage 2 Cloud Storage 3

25. Outline Beyond Linear TV: Technology Beyond the TV Industry: Cloud TV Beyond TV Regulation: the Re-emergence of Telecom- style Regulation

26. Power (monopoly, competition, vertical integration, ownership); Access (net neutrality, free speech, pluralism, interconnection, compatibility, standardization, non-discrimination, affordability, universality, diversity); Protection (children, privacy, security, copyrights, morality, reputation). Growth (innovation, infrastructure, development, industrial policy, trade, national culture) 26

27. Inclusion of the poor and the rural Inclusion of the digitally challenged Morality, violence, and child protection Privacy Network upgrade Ownership restrictions (ceilings, cross-ownership, vertical, national) Libel and copyright enforcement Restrictions on certain ads, and truth in advertising Device attachment Interconnection and interoperation Content Diversity. Source Diversity. National culture, for many countries Revenue generation. Innovation. Interoperability. Protection of competition. Protection from spam. Cyber-security. 27

28. www.corbis.com Skinny Pipes, Individualized 28

29. http://www.classic-cable.com/howworks.html Fat Pipes, Shared 29

30. Which Regulatory Approach? 30

31. Factors Leading to Infrastructure as the Nexus for TV Regulation 1. Least mobile 2. Fewest participants 3. Market power 4. Existing sophisticated regulatory tools 5. Enforcer of content restrictions 6. Effective revenue source 7. Source of In-kind contributions 8. Customization of regulation

32. * Thank you! End of Talk noam@columbia.edu 32