1. Midwest Ozone Group Discussion on Good Neighbor SIP’s Rob Kaleel Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium October 24, 2014

2.  Background ◦ Model: CAMx V6.10 ◦ Modeling Period: June 17 to Sept 26 ◦ Meteorology: EPA 2011 (version II) ◦ Emissions: EPA 2011 & 2018 (version I)  Canada and Mexico emissions from 2008 NEI  EPA 2018: IPM, Tier 3 NPRM (not MOVES2014), State/Federal On-the- books  Scenarios ◦ 2018 Attainment Test  IPM (CAIR)  ERTAC (version 2.2) - On-the-Books  Model Sensitivity - 0.10 lb/mmbtu “emissions cap” for EGU’s w/ SCR’s

3. NOxVOCSO2 Emission Trends and Projections 2002-2011 emissions from NEI; 2018 emissions from EPA Modeling Platform

5. ERTAC IPM  Starting point: Base Year CEM data by unit  Future year growth rate by region and fuel type  Future unit utilization based on historic (base year) activity Future emission rate based on historic (base year) emission rate (absent new controls or new emission limits)  Starting point: Base Year CEM data by unit  Future year growth rate based on generation nationally; regional growth and fuel use based on cost model  Future unit utilization based on cost model  Future emission rate projected based on control type and fuel (actual and assumed)

6. ERTAC EPA (IPM)

9. 75 ppb O 3 threshold

10. IPMERTAC2.2

11. 75 ppb O 3 threshold

12. IPMERTAC2.2

13. 75 ppb O 3 threshold

14. IPMERTAC2.2

15. SCR’s Exceeding 0.10 lb/mmbtu – ERTAC 2.2 (2011 base projected to 2018)

19. MonitorIPMERTAC2.2 ERTAC 2.2 SCR @0.10 Harford (Edgewood), MD 81.382.382 Babylon, NY 78.9 78.7 Westport, CT 78.578.678.5 Philadelphia, PA 77.377.276.9 Clarksboro, NJ 76.97776.7 Sheboygan, WI 77.477.177 Louisville, KY 7676.375.9 Cincinnati (Hamilton County), OH 76.676.476 West Alton, MO 76.375.3 Holland, MI 75.875.375.2 Detroit (East 7 Mile), MI 75.2 75 Columbus (New Albany), OH 75.1 74.9