1. Strategic Development of Bioenergy in the Western States Task 3: Spatial Analysis and Supply Curve Development Bryan Jenkins, Nathan Parker, Peter Tittmann, Quinn Hart, Joshua Cunningham, Mui Lay—University of California, Davis

2. Objectives Assess the potential biofuel supply from biomass resources in the Western United States Develop facility cost and spatially-explicit feedstock and product supply models to optimize biofuel facility siting and scale Quantify optimal biofuel amounts by feedstock and conversion technology types and feedstock and fuel prices Examine sensitivity of supply to policy and development alternatives

3. Approach Geographic Information System (GIS) model for spatial analysis Mixed-integer linear optimization model to solve optimal biofuel system design using input from GIS Mixed Integer Linear

4. Participants UC Davis –Task lead –GIS/Optimization modeling –Input identification and analysis, quality control Antares Group, Inc –Conversion technology costs Kansas State University –Agricultural resource/energy crops US Forest Service –Forest resource California Biomass Collaborative –Municipal resource National Renewable Energy Laboratory –Infrastructure and database support WGA, USDA, USDOE, California Energy Commission PIER Program, UC Davis STEPS Program, CSTARS –Project support

5. Task Organization Mapping of Feedstock Bio-refinery Site Selection Network Analysis of Transportation Costs Optimization Supply Curves Mapping of Fuel Supply

6. GIS Spatial Analysis Feedstock mapping Biorefinery location analysis Network Analysis

7. Biomass Resource Procurement Cost

8. Mapping Biomass Resources

9. Siting Criteria for Potential Biorefineries

10. GIS Network Analysis Methodology –Develop road, rail and marine transportation networks. –Calculate transportation cost matrix from feedstock locations to potential biorefinery locations –Calculate fuel transportation cost from biorefinery to closest distribution terminal.

11. GIS Network Analysis Network Nodes Supply –County centroid –Municipal/other facility point source Supply accumulation points –Inter-Modal facilities equipped to transfer biomass from road to rail and rail/road to marine. Potential biorefinery locations Product accumulation points –Inter-Modal facilities equipped to transfer liquid fuel from rail, road or pipeline to marine. Terminals –Product endpoint for mixing with petroleum fuels

12. GIS Network Analysis Network Connectivity Road –Transport feedstock from source to inter-modal or refinery. Marine –Transport feedstock from inter-modal facility to refinery –Transport product from refinery to terminal Rail –Transport feedstock from inter-modal facility to refinery –Transport product from refinery to terminal

13. Geographic Network

14. GIS Network Analysis Cities / Population from National Atlas Roads/Marine/Rail from BTS Facilities from EPA EnviroFacts Inter-modal Facilities from BTS Terminals from OPIS/STALSBY

15. Matching Feedstocks and Technologies EHFEFFAMEFAHCPYFTD Agricultural CellulosicXXX Corn grainX Seed OilZZ Animal FatsXX Forest BiomassXXX Municipal solid wasteYYY Waste greaseYY County level data =X City level data =Y Facility level data =Z

16. Matching Feedstocks and Technologies

17. Optimization Model Methodology –Mixed integer-linear programming model of biofuel industry. –Objective: minimize annual cost to produce a given quantity of biofuels. –Single technology models and a separate integrated model with all technologies Reference assumptions –Conversion costs are linearized functions –All other costs are constant with scale

18. Simple Model Schematic Biomass Supply Points Potential Biorefinery Sites Fuel Distribution Terminals Biomass Types Price Levels i j k fp S ifp TC ij DC jk P ifp F ijfp X jt Yf jt Yb jt

19. Model Formulation Minimize annual cost of production –Sum of feedstock procurement, transportation, conversion, and fuel distribution costs for annual production. Subject to –Biomass leaving a supply point at a price level must be less than the maximum supply. –Biofuel produced at a biorefinery must be less than the biofuel potential of the biomass entering the biorefinery. –Biofuel quantity produced at a biorefinery must be less than the maximum biorefinery size for that technology. – Biofuel cannot be produced at a location unless the fixed cost has been paid. –The total biofuel produced must equal the biofuel demanded for a given model run.

20. Model Equations Maximize: Subject to: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

21. Linearized Conversion Costs

22. Integrated Model Architecture Modified routes, sources, destinations ESRI Network Analyst Supply Curves Simplified Costs Postgresql PostGIS Cities Feedstock Transportation GAMS Modeling Facilities Summaries Supply Curves Maps

23. Results Individual Technology Supply Curves Combined Model Supply Curve Type of Biomass Maps

24. Supply Curves for Individual Technologies

25. Supply Curve for All Biofuels

26. Type of Biomass Consumed

27. Contributions to Cost

28. $1.30 per GGE

29. $1.50 per GGE

30. $1.75 per GGE

31. $2.00 per GGE

32. $2.30 per GGE

33. $2.50 per GGE

34. $2.75 per GGE

35. $3.05 per GGE

36. $4.05 per GGE

37. Sensitivity To be completed –Capital Cost +/- 25% –Coproduct Value –Tax Incentives –Required Fuel Mix

38. Conclusions ~4 billion gallons of gasoline equivalent biofuels could be produced at approximately $2/GGE ~12 billion gallons of gasoline equivalent biofuels could be produced at approximately $3/GGE The base model costs favor LCE for cellulosic biomass resources and FAHC for oil/grease resources. Costs used need further inspection and validation Sensitivity analysis needed to investigate range of potential outcomes

39. Future Analysis Completion of analysis for Western US Model extension to entire US –Proposal in review by USDA Model extension to include Canada –In discussion Incorporate analysis of potential changes to land use based upon increased demand for feedstock Incorporate seasonal and probabilistic effects, add other sustainability and LCA aspects, explore alternative economy of scale formulations

40. Extra Slides

42. Target Price Analysis

43. Transportation Costs LiquidsBulk solidsComments Loading/unloading$0.02/gallon$5/wet ton Time dependent$32/hr/truckload$29/hr/truckloadIncludes labor and capital Distance dependent$1.30/mile/truckload$1.20/mile/truckloadIncludes fuel, insurance, maintenance, and permitting Truck Capacity8,000 gallons25 wet tonsMoisture content varies with feedstock LiquidBulk Solids Loading/unloading$0.015/gallon$5/wet ton Fixed Cost$8.80/100 gallons$27/wet ton Distance dependent$0.0075/mile/100 gallons$0.023/mile/wet ton Rail Car Capacity33,000 gallons106.5 wet tons Trucking Rail

44. Transportation Costs (2) LiquidBulk Solids Loading/unloading$0.015/gallon$5/wet ton Fixed Cost$1.40/100 gallons$3.85/wet ton Distance dependent$0.015/mile/100 gallons$0.043/mile/wet ton Barge Capacity1.26 million gallons4,000 wet tons Marine Biomass typeMoisture Content (% weight)Density (tons/1,000 gallons) Forest Wood Chips50%- Straws (barley, oats, rye, wheat)15%- Stover15%- Orchard/Vineyard Waste35%- Virgin Oil-3.86 Yellow Grease-3.24 Tallow/lard-3.24 Biomass Properties

45. Conversion Costs Fixed Cost (million $) Feed Dependent ($/ton) Fuel Dependent ($/gallon) Maximum Capacity Model Parameter abcM Grain Ethanol: Dry Mill Wet Mill $2.22 $13.03 -$0.32 $0.21 100 MGY 300 MGY Lignocellulsic Ethanol$6.73-$0.61100 MGY FT Diesel$21.11$105-5 million tons Pyrolysis Oil$2.13$43.3$0.46800,000 tons Biodiesel: Yellow Grease Virgin oil/Tallow $0.73 $1.66 $181 $62.3 -320,000 tons Hydrotreament Diesel$1.55$36.6-800,000 tons