1. Introduction to the 6-Step FPSP Process To be used in conjunction with the activity exercises

2. 6-Step Future Trends Process 1 Identify Potential Problems 2 Identify Fundamental Problem 3 Identify Potential Solutions 4 Select Best Solution 5 Design Action Plan 6 Evaluate Action Plan 6-Step FPSP Process 1 Identify Potential Challenges 2 Identify Underlying Problem 3 Identify Potential Solutions 4 Develop Criteria 5 Apply Criteria to Rank Solutions 6 Design Action Plan VS

3. How to word a potential problem A Potential Challenge has 3 parts: Part 1: A FACT that can be derived from the scenario. Part 2: WHY this fact could pose a problem within the scenario (this is the problem that is inferred here). Better groups also link the problem to a LARGER CONSEQUENCE here. [ Part 3: RESEARCH to support why this could be a problem. The research may be based on formal academic papers / journals, opinions from authoritative / credible sources (e.g. universities, government organisations, international non-profit organisations, reputable newspapers). ] 6-Step FPSP Process 1 Identify Potential Challenges 2 Identify Underlying Problem 3 Identify Potential Solutions 4 Develop Criteria 5 Apply Criteria to Rank Solutions 6 Design Action Plan

4. An example The future scene states that students these days face increasing levels of stress from home (FACT, from future scene). This could be problematic in 2030 because if this trend persists, students may face such an insurmountable level of stress that many may turn to suicide (WHY) leading potentially to a generation of youths with poor emotional health (LARGER CONSEQUENCE). [According to Dr Daniel Fung, Deputy Chief of IMH’s department of child and adolescent psychiatry, teenager suicide is usually caused by “relationship problems, especially with their parents” (RESEARCH). ]

5. Another example The future scene states that robots are used as domestic helpers, and massage beds are used as alarm clocks (FACT, from future scene). This could be a problem because having technology permeating so many aspects of our lives necessarily means that a great deal of resources is used to power such technology (WHY), leading to an acceleration in the depletion of natural resources (LARGER CONSEQUENCE).

6. Do note that… Potential problems are always phrased as statements (not questions), and are always suggested as problems (using modal auxiliary verbs like may, might, can, could) and not regarded as definite (not using words like will, would, shall, should, must).

7. What if students run out of ideas? Tip: Use these categories for flexibility of ideas

8. The Underlying Problem You may notice that out of the 16 potential problems, a few may be related to the same significant issue/theme that requires significant attention. You may combine elements of these into the Underlying Problem. 6-Step FPSP Process 1 Identify Potential Challenges 2 Identify Underlying Problem 3 Identify Potential Solutions 4 Develop Criteria 5 Apply Criteria to Rank Solutions 6 Design Action Plan

9. The Underlying Problem The UP should always be one that BEST FITS the team’s intent AND if solved, would MOST POSITIVELY IMPACT the society in the future scene as a whole / create the most change. It should also address the “charge” of the future scene. The UP is not simply what is presumed to be the most significant problem identified in Step One.

10. Constituents of a UP The UP must have a condition phrase, key verb phrase, purpose, and future scene parameters (time, location). Is the KVP absolute in nature? Is it measurable / observable?

11. An Example of a UP Given the inference we have made that teenagers in 2050 are likely to suffer from the potential problems of teenage depression, isolation, and side effects from frequent pill-popping (CONDITION PHRASE), how might we improve the general well-being (KEY VERB PHRASE) of these teenagers so that they will not succumb to mental and physical illnesses that easily (PURPOSE) in Singapore in the year 2050 and beyond (FUTURE SCENE PARAMETERS)?

12. UP – Significance and Scope A good UP is phrased as a question (that can elicit solution ideas for Step 3) A good UP should focus on an issue that is of great significance in the FS Yet, its scope should neither be too broad (such as dealing with “big” themes like reducing discrimination in the world) nor too narrow (such as focusing on only a small group of people who are affected) Having a KVP that is measurable and observable often helps teams with their scoping. Teams can also consider the 4 ‘I’s – Impact, Influence, Imagination, Interest Ultimately, the UP should focus on the topic of the future scene.

13. KVP It would be very much more realistic if the FP deals with something the team can possibly accomplish. Hence, the team should aim to INCREASE, DECREASE, MINIMIZE, MAXIMIZE, REDUCE, IMPROVE a situation, as opposed to PREVENT, ELIMINATE, SOLVE, which are harder (and at times almost impossible) to do.

14. How to word a potential solution Tip #1: Address the Key Verb Phrase and Purpose of the UP. All UPs have a key verb phrase (e.g. reduce the possibility of robot-human conflict, minimise the risk of robot intelligence surpassing that of human, increase the possibility of robots always being compassionate) A good UP also has a purpose apart from the KVP (e.g. so that human beings will be less likely to suffer termination, so that robots will not even consider hurting humans) 6-Step FPSP Process 1 Identify Potential Challenges 2 Identify Underlying Problem 3 Identify Potential Solutions 4 Develop Criteria 5 Apply Criteria to Rank Solutions 6 Design Action Plan

15. How to word a potential solution Tip #1 cont’d: Address the Key Verb Phrase and Purpose in the UP. Any potential solution serves to attempt to remedy the UP, and the only way for the potential solution to be RELEVANT is for it to tackle the KVP and Purpose of the UP. Always have the UP right in front of you as you devise potential solutions.

16. How to word a potential solution Tip #2: State the potential solution in a definite manner. E.g. “we WILL do X”. While the potential challenges in Step 1 were stated as possibilities, the solution ideas should show more conviction.

17. How to word a potential solution Tip #3: Be humane Solution ideas as far as possible should be humane (e.g. implanting chips into a new-born baby isn’t exactly humane. Euthanising people who are deemed to be burdens to society isn’t humane too, and of course the secondary question of whether this is indeed possible remains).

18. How to word a potential solution Tip #4: Teams will be credited for elaborating in detail (not amounting to an action plan), so consider the 5Ws and 1H. Who – who or what person/group will implement the solution What – the solution idea in itself How – describe how the solution will work Why – explain why the solution will solve the FP (KVP and Purpose to be addressed) Where – describe relevant places for the solution to occur When – designate a timeline, a specific date of completion, timeframes within the parameters of the scenario.

19. How to word a potential solution Let’s consider this UP: Our analysis shows that in the future scene, potential problems relating to the erosion of human freewill may occur, such as discrimination due to Eugenic beliefs (Problem 1), deprivation of right to religion (Problem 4) and mind control (Problem 5). Given the potential suppression of human liberty by technology, how might we reduce the instances of human rights being compromised by robots in the year 2042 and beyond in Singapore, so that we can continue to be in control of science and technology?

20. Solution The United Nations security council will set up UNDROID (WHO) in year 2020 (WHEN). UNDROID - (UN Defensive Response Organization for Intelligent Design) will be a group of commandos specially trained to take out AI should they choose to rebel (WHAT). They will be trained in different terrain and have a secret base on Easter Island, unknown and free from the usage of advanced forms of AI. They will use EMP (electro-magnetic pulse) launchers that only harm AI to take out the AI (HOW). This is so that should AI rebel, there would be a special force trained to handle such situations rather than just the regular army and police struggling to do so (WHY).

21. Research and Rationale According to the NATO website, emergency response forces already exist. The NRF (NATO Response Force) provides a rapid military response to an emerging crisis, whether for collective defence purposes or for other crisis response operations. The NRF is specially trained to handle these emergencies. This is like the UNDRIOD team which is specially trained to handle AI crises. An electromagnetic pulse is a burst of electromagnetic radiation that can produce damaging current and voltage surges, rapidly changing electric and magnetic fields, causing the breakdown of electrical and electronic systems. In this case, it can take out robots but leave human beings relatively harm-free apart from collateral damage to the electrical grid. This is deemed to be a necessary sacrifice in the war on robots.

22. Developing criteria to choose your solutions Formula: Which solution will be the (SUPERLATIVE ADJECTIVE) for (WHO) so that (WHY)? e.g. Which solution will be the fastest to implement (superlative adjective) for the United Nations Humanitarian Office (WHO) so that the threat of robots usurping the role of human beings can be reduced as soon as possible (WHY)? Design 5 criteria. 6-Step FPSP Process 1 Identify Potential Challenges 2 Identify Underlying Problem 3 Identify Potential Solutions 4 Develop Criteria 5 Apply Criteria to Rank Solutions 6 Design Action Plan

23. Poor criteria Formula: Which solution will be the (SUPERLATIVE ADJECTIVE) for (WHO) so that (WHY)? e.g. Which solution will be the best? Which solution will be the most effective? Which solution will be the cheapest?

24. Write the CRITERIA in this way: 1. Which solution will… 2. One SINGLE dimension Cost the least to Be the quickest to Be most humane for Be most ethical for Be most environmentally kind to Be most acceptable to/for Note: This list is not exhaustive! 3. Fact/ idea/ person linked to Future Scene and Underlying Problem (FPSP Coaches’ Handbook 2005)

25. Step 5: Design a decision matrix Rank 8 solution ideas in a decision matrix based on the 5 criteria you have devised. 6-Step FPSP Process 1 Identify Potential Challenges 2 Identify Underlying Problem 3 Identify Potential Solutions 4 Develop Criteria 5 Apply Criteria to Rank Solutions 6 Design Action Plan

26. Design a decision matrix

27. Step 6: Action Plan How do I Write an Action Plan? Include the following points (where applicable): a)Who will be INVOLVED? (Assistors) b)How might you overcome any OBSTACLES? (Resistors) c)How will it be FUNDED? d)What ACTIONS will be taken? e)How does it relate to the FUTURE SCENE? f)What are some potential shortcomings? g)How will these shortcomings be addressed? 6-Step FPSP Process 1 Identify Potential Challenges 2 Identify Underlying Problem 3 Identify Potential Solutions 4 Develop Criteria 5 Apply Criteria to Rank Solutions 6 Design Action Plan

28. More Tips for ‘Action Plan’ Give FULL details—include more, not less information Be CREATIVE: You can make your Action Plan a speech, a script… It’s up to You!

29. Important Note Remember: You are trying to SELL your ideas to your audience. In the Action Plan, make clear: 1.WHO you are 2.WHO your audience is, preferably in your opening paragraph.

30. Introduction Paragraph A clear, creatively written opening paragraph is the best attention-grabber. Here’s an example of a creative introduction:

31. Sample Introduction Paragraph Attention: To all members of the Union for a Safer World Wide Web 2, please place your neuro-plugs into the ports located on the wall to your left so you can view the holographic speech made by the Captain of the World Wide Web IT Police 1. Good evening. … 2. Who your audience is 1. Who you are

32. The Skit (Finals) Encapsulates what the entire Action Plan is about in the form of an approximately 4 min performance Will incorporate a mystery object and a mystery tagline. Teams will need to prepare their own props, script and rehearse beforehand.