1. Statistical Analysis for Air Quality Management Prof. Shin’ichi Okamoto Tokyo University of Information Sciences 9:30-10:10, 4 march, 2008

2. Concept of Air Quality Management Emission < = emission standard V Ambient concentration <= Air Quality standard v V Impact (Human health Etc.) Emission Ambient concentration Impact (Human health etc.)

3. Science used for the research on the relation between two areas Emission /\ Atmospheric science /\ Ambient concentration /\ Medicine and/or Epidemiology /\ Impact (Human health Etc.)

4. Source and receptor relation Emission rate receptor Ambient concentration source advection diffusion wind

5. Cause effect diagram for atmospheric process Ambient concentration at receptor site Source condition Stack height Emission rate Gas temperature and exit velocity Atmospheric condition (meteorological condition) Wind Turbulence (atmospheric stability) Other reactive pollutants

6. Air Quality Model What is an Air Quality Model ? –A model that express the relationship between an emission source condition and an ambient condition at a receptor site. –A model that usually uses a mathematical expression based on a theoretical thought or empirical experience or both of them.

7. Theoretical model advection and diffusion by turbulent flow, chemical reactions in the atmosphere including reaction within the suspended droplets deposition, adsorption, and absorption on the surface or other particles ( including many models that are used to formulate a parameter appeared in the above models)

8. Empirical model Quantitative analysis –Mainly statistical manner –Many models are supported by theoretical considerations Qualitative analysis –Related with many problem-solving tools –Can be used for the initial stage of quantitative analysis

9. Role of the statistics in the atmospheric science Descriptive statisticsDescriptive statistics –(for example) –compare with an Air Quality Standard –Outline a situation of air quality at a site Inferential statisticsInferential statistics –Many aspects in Air quality management –Many researches

10. Statistics From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Statistics is a mathematical science pertaining to the collection, analysis, interpretation or explanation, and presentation of data. It is applicable to a wide variety of academic disciplines, from the natural and social sciences to the humanities, and to government and business.mathematical sciencedata academic disciplinesscienceshumanities Statistical methods can be used to summarize or describe a collection of data; this is called descriptive statistics. In addition, patterns in the data may be modeled in a way that accounts for randomness and uncertainty in the observations, and then used to draw inferences about the process or population being studied; this is called inferential statistics. Both descriptive and inferential statistics comprise applied statistics. There is also a discipline called mathematical statistics, which is concerned with the theoretical basis of the subject.descriptive statisticsmodeledrandomness inferential statisticsmathematical statistics

11. An example of statistical analysis for particulate air pollution Receptor models are most familiar models that use a typical statistical method in the atmospheric science. –FA –CMB –PMF –Etc.

12. Kashima Industrial Area C:\Documents and

13. Monitoring stations around the Kashima industrial area

14. Varimax rotated factor loading

15. Time series of source contribution for steel mill by a FA-MR model

16. Source contribution for iron steel mill

17. Fin Thank you for your kind attention !