1. Climate Trends Along the St. John River Water, Lands & Communities: Adapting to Climate Change along the St. John River November 30, 2015 Jeff Hoyt NB Climate Change Secretariat 1

2. Provincial leadership on climate change. Reduce or prevent GHG emissions. Adaptation strategies to address economic, social & environmental impacts. Collaboration at provincial, regional, national, and international levels. Engagement and mainstreaming. 2

3. Climate Change Global Global GHG emissions to increase average temperatures by 3.5ºC. Canada Temperatures to rise 2 times faster than the global average. o Average temperature increased by 1.6 o C in Canada between1948 and 2013. Northern Canada will be 3 times faster. o Arctic temperature increased by 2.2 o C. 3

4. The Climate of New Brunswick is Changing A changing climate is already noticeable in NB: Average temperatures are rising, High intensity precipitation events are more common, Sea level is rising, and Inland and coastal areas suffer more erosion and flooding. 4

5. Climate Change Indicators http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/departments/elg/environment/conte nt/climate_change/content/climate_change_indicators.html 12 indicators of local trends Provides local information to better understand how the climate is changing. 5

6. Warmer Temperatures – Historical Trends Over the past century temperatures have increased by 1.5°C and by 1.1 °C over the last thirty years (1980-2000). Seasonal temperatures have increased in all parts of the province. White Christmas Probability (likelihood per decade) Source: Climate Change Indicators of New BrunswickClimate Change Indicators of New Brunswick 6

7. Changing Precipitation – Historical Trends Communities are experiencing more extreme storms and precipitation events More extreme events between 2000 and 2010 than any other decade in Fredericton and Moncton –Five between May 1 and October 31, 2014. –Hurricane Arthur July 6: ten different NB weather stations recorded >100 mm rain. Extreme rainfall event washes out road in Northampton – Dec. 2010 7

8. Source: Insurance Bureau of Canada Economic Impact – Recent Evidence 8

9. Gagetown - May 2008 9 Ice Storm - December 2013 Arthur - July 2014

10. New Brunswick Climate Futures Shows how climate is expected to change Great tool for adaptation planning! Presents 29 climate variables in the form of maps Includes explanatory text & FAQs Provides access to raw data www.acasamaps.com 10

11. Warmer Temperatures – Future Projections Climate models predict that by the end of the century (2080 to 2100) New Brunswick’s average temperatures will increase by approximately 5°C. 11

12. Annual Number of Days with a Maximum Temperature >35°C – Future Projections 12 LocationHistoric202020502080 Saint John000.31.9 Gagetown00.32.38.9 Fredericton0.10.84.112.5 Woodstock00.63.813.0

13. Warmer Temperatures – Potential Impacts Impacts on sectors such as recreation, tourism and agriculture. Changes in freeze-thaw cycles – infrastructure impacts Earlier snow-melt & breakup of river ice - increased probability of ice jams and flooding. Changing in heating and cooling loads. Extreme heat incidents - heat stress. 13

14. Changing Precipitation – Future Projections Climate models predict that total precipitation and intensity of events will increase (more often as rain rather than snow). 14

15. Annual Total Precipitation (mm) – Future Projections 15 LocationHistoric202020502080 Saint John1293134613951445 Gagetown1126117812241270 Fredericton 1058 110611491190 Woodstock1139119212411284

16. Changing Precipitation – Potential Impacts Extreme rainfall events can cause the water levels to rise in rivers and streams resulting in… Increased flooding of low-lying areas, Increased coastal and inland erosion, increased risk for contamination of water sources, increased damage costs to infrastructure, homes, and businesses. 16

17. Sea Level Rise – Trends & Future Projections New Brunswick has 5,501 km of coastline. Nearly 60% of the population lives within 50 km of the coastline. Sea level is predicted to rise by about 1m by 2100. 17

18. CBC News- April 21, 2015 18

19. What is Climate Change Adaptation? Build resilience in communities, infrastructures and natural resources Adjustments in all decision making Planning, financing, design, operations Both risks and opportunities. Proactive to avoid costs; improve safety and build economic competitiveness 19

20. Adaptation – Achievements to Date Widespread recognition of the issues and a willingness to act – engagement. Communities, infrastructure owners and natural resources. ID vulnerabilities and options to address impacts. Key is to collaborate and leverage funding opportunities. 20