1. Historical Thought & Approaches to Causation

2. Historiography the study of the history and methodology of the discipline of historythe study of the history and methodology of the discipline of history Also denotes a body of historical work on a specialized topic or genreAlso denotes a body of historical work on a specialized topic or genre –“Historiography of Islam” –“Political history” Recent trends are away from traditional diplomatic, economic, political history toward (esp.) social and cultural studiesRecent trends are away from traditional diplomatic, economic, political history toward (esp.) social and cultural studies

3. HISTORICAL CAUSATION

4. Causality Def: the relationship between an event (the cause) and a second event (the effect), where the second event is understood to be a consequence of the firstDef: the relationship between an event (the cause) and a second event (the effect), where the second event is understood to be a consequence of the first Also/or, the relationship between a set of factors (causes) and a phenomenon (the effect)Also/or, the relationship between a set of factors (causes) and a phenomenon (the effect) –Factor: anything that affects an effect

6. Causality in History Basically, the seeking of an answer to the question “Why did X happen?”Basically, the seeking of an answer to the question “Why did X happen?” –iow, a seriously difficult question In the West, discussion goes back at least as far as Aristotle; the problem was long known in Asia, too…In the West, discussion goes back at least as far as Aristotle; the problem was long known in Asia, too… The Illustrated Sutra of Cause and Effect, Japan, 8 th c.

7. Abridged Historiography of Causality

9. THEORIES TO EXPLAIN CAUSALITY

10. CHAOS THEORY

11. Chaos Theory Everything can be boiled down to chance events over which we have no controlEverything can be boiled down to chance events over which we have no control Key Quote: “Nothing is inevitable until it happens.”Key Quote: “Nothing is inevitable until it happens.”

12. Rush, “Roll the Bones,” Roll the Bones (1991) We go out in the world and take our chances Fate is just the weight of circumstances That's the way that lady luck dances Roll the bonesWe go out in the world and take our chances Fate is just the weight of circumstances That's the way that lady luck dances Roll the bones

13. DETERMINISM

14. Determinism Everything is the inescapable result of what went beforeEverything is the inescapable result of what went before Key Quote: “What we call chaos is just patterns we haven’t recognized. What we call random is just patterns we can’t decipher. There is no free will. There are no variables. There is only the inevitable.”Key Quote: “What we call chaos is just patterns we haven’t recognized. What we call random is just patterns we can’t decipher. There is no free will. There are no variables. There is only the inevitable.”

15. The Many Faces of Determinism Nomological – past and present determine the future; everything is the result of natural laws & mechanicsNomological – past and present determine the future; everything is the result of natural laws & mechanics Theological – all events are predestined by a (usually omniscient monotheistic) deityTheological – all events are predestined by a (usually omniscient monotheistic) deity Logical – all propositions about the past, present, & future are either true or falseLogical – all propositions about the past, present, & future are either true or false Economic – Marxist idea that human history turns on economic factorsEconomic – Marxist idea that human history turns on economic factors Technological - a society's technology drives development of social structure and cultural valuesTechnological - a society's technology drives development of social structure and cultural values Geographic – societal development is the result of long-term geographic factors (climate, land, etc.)Geographic – societal development is the result of long-term geographic factors (climate, land, etc.)

16. Laplace’s Demon We may regard the present state of the universe as the effect of its past and the cause of its future. An intellect which at a certain moment would know all forces that set nature in motion, and all positions of all items of which nature is composed, if this intellect were also vast enough to submit these data to analysis, it would embrace in a single formula the movements of the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the tiniest atom; for such an intellect nothing would be uncertain and the future just like the past would be present before its eyes. —Pierre Simon Laplace, A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities (1814)

18. Fatalism Everything that occurs was fated to occur – we are powerless to do anything other than what we doEverything that occurs was fated to occur – we are powerless to do anything other than what we do Also…an attitude of resignation in the face of inevitable future events (Nietzsche)Also…an attitude of resignation in the face of inevitable future events (Nietzsche) Or…that actions are free, but all lead to an inevitable conclusion anywayOr…that actions are free, but all lead to an inevitable conclusion anyway Or…that one must accept, rather than resist, the inevitable (defeatism)Or…that one must accept, rather than resist, the inevitable (defeatism)

20. Emma Bull (contemporary writer) on Determinism “Coincidence is the word we use when we can’t see the levers and pulleys.”

21. E.H. Carr (mid-20 th c. historian) on Determinism all that happened in the world had a cause, and events could not have happened differently unless there was a different causeall that happened in the world had a cause, and events could not have happened differently unless there was a different cause free will arguments of contemporaries dismissed as Cold War propagandafree will arguments of contemporaries dismissed as Cold War propaganda Counter-factual (speculative) history is a “parlour game” for history’s “losers.”Counter-factual (speculative) history is a “parlour game” for history’s “losers.”

22. You have no choice in the matter… Although individuals think they have freedom of action, this is only because they are ignorant of how the various forces acting upon them (climate, society, family, upbringing, previous experience, genetics, and so on) have led them to make decisions.

23. …and you’re only fooling yourself if you think otherwise A man on a raft in the middle of the ocean may congratulate himself on having the free will to paddle this way or that – or not to paddle at all. His ripples, however, make no impact upon the waves and the tides of which he remains at the mercy.A man on a raft in the middle of the ocean may congratulate himself on having the free will to paddle this way or that – or not to paddle at all. His ripples, however, make no impact upon the waves and the tides of which he remains at the mercy.

24. Rush Limbaugh, 12 Aug 2013 See, in my humble opinion, folks, if you believe in God, then intellectually you cannot believe in manmade global warming … You must be either agnostic or atheistic to believe that man controls something that he can’t create.See, in my humble opinion, folks, if you believe in God, then intellectually you cannot believe in manmade global warming … You must be either agnostic or atheistic to believe that man controls something that he can’t create.

25. The Butterfly Effect Seemingly minor changes in complex, nonlinear systems can result in large differences in a later stateSeemingly minor changes in complex, nonlinear systems can result in large differences in a later state –Refers to idea that the development of a hurricane might be contingent on a far- away butterfly flapping its wings several weeks earlier

26. The Butterfly Effect in Pop Culture Common trope in sci-fi, usually centering around time travel, a “grandfather paradox,” and/or a “what if” historical questionCommon trope in sci-fi, usually centering around time travel, a “grandfather paradox,” and/or a “what if” historical question “A Sound of Thunder” by Ray Bradbury (1952) – a hunter on a time-traveling safari inadvertantly kills an insect, and finds his own present subtly altered

27. If you’re interested… http://www.lasalle.edu/~didio/courses/ hon462/hon462_assets/sound_of_thun der.htmhttp://www.lasalle.edu/~didio/courses/ hon462/hon462_assets/sound_of_thun der.htmhttp://www.lasalle.edu/~didio/courses/ hon462/hon462_assets/sound_of_thun der.htmhttp://www.lasalle.edu/~didio/courses/ hon462/hon462_assets/sound_of_thun der.htm (approx 11 pgs(approx 11 pgs of solid, old- of solid, old- school sci-fi) school sci-fi)

28. Cleopatra’s Nose Assigning definitive causality to a minor or apparently insignificant event "if the nose of Cleopatra had been shorter the whole face of the earth would have been changed.“"if the nose of Cleopatra had been shorter the whole face of the earth would have been changed.“ Blaise Pascal, 17 th century French mathematician and philosopherBlaise Pascal, 17 th century French mathematician and philosopher

29. Battle of Bosworth Field, 8/22/1485 (Shakespeare, Richard III, Act V, Scene IV) K. Rich. A horse! a horse! my kingdom for a horse! Cate. Withdraw, my lord; I’ll help you to a horse. K. Rich. Slave! I have set my life upon a cast, And I will stand the hazard of the die. I think there be six Richmonds in the field; Five have I slain to-day, instead of him.— A horse! a horse! my kingdom for a horse! For want of a nail the shoe was lost. For want of a shoe the horse was lost. For want of a horse the rider was lost. For want of a rider the message was lost. For want of a message the battle was lost. For want of a battle the kingdom was lost. And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

30. Everything’s Random… The French Revolution occurred because Queen Marie-Antoinette told the French people to eat cake when they said they had no bread, because she was in a bad mood with an upset stomach, caused by a fly leaving germs on her food. So, the French Revolution was caused by a fly.

31. One More… The division of the Christian Church into Protestant and Catholic – with all that this has entailed – can be pinned on the revolt of Martin Luther against the Pope, and Luther himself only became a monk after pledging to devote his life to God when he was caught unexpectedly in a terrifying thunderstorm. According to this interpretation, the Northern Ireland Conflict was caused by a thunderstorm in 1517.

33. “The brain is a lot like a computer…” - Erma Bombeck, and many others

35. FREE WILL

36. Free Will the ability of agents to make choices unconstrained by certain factors, includingthe ability of agents to make choices unconstrained by certain factors, including –metaphysical constraints - logical or theological determinism –physical constraints – enslavement, imprisonment –social constraints - threat of punishment or censure, or structural constraints –mental constraints – compulsions, phobias, neurological disorders, or genetic predisposition

37. Implications of Free Will Religion - free will implies that individual will and choices can coexist with an omnipotent divinityReligion - free will implies that individual will and choices can coexist with an omnipotent divinity Law - affects considerations of punishment and rehabilitationLaw - affects considerations of punishment and rehabilitation Ethics - can individuals be held morally accountable for their actions?Ethics - can individuals be held morally accountable for their actions? Science - neuroscientific findings regarding free will may suggest different ways of predicting human behavior.Science - neuroscientific findings regarding free will may suggest different ways of predicting human behavior.

38. Free Will & Determinism Determinism is compatible w/ Free Will Determinism and Free Will are incompatible

39. Rush, “Freewill,” Exit Stage Left (1981) You can choose a ready guide in some celestial voice If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice You can choose from phantom fears and kindness that can kill I will choose a path that's clear I will choose freewillYou can choose a ready guide in some celestial voice If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice You can choose from phantom fears and kindness that can kill I will choose a path that's clear I will choose freewill

40. Not a “dumb waitress” joke: Jean-Paul Sartre is sitting at a French cafe, revising his draft of Being and Nothingness. He says to the waitress, "I'd like a cup of coffee, please, with no cream." The waitress replies, "I'm sorry, Monsieur, but we're out of cream. How about with no milk?“Jean-Paul Sartre is sitting at a French cafe, revising his draft of Being and Nothingness. He says to the waitress, "I'd like a cup of coffee, please, with no cream." The waitress replies, "I'm sorry, Monsieur, but we're out of cream. How about with no milk?“ –One of the big themes in Sartre's philosophy is the idea of genuine choice versus just the appearance of having a choice. So he can't meaningfully choose to have his coffee with no cream, because he could never have had it with cream to begin with, but he can meaningfully choose to have it with no milk.

41. POSTMODERNISM

42. Postmodernism Term first used in 1870s to describe art; by 1920s was applied to philosophy (as in Post- the “decadent modernism” described by Nietzsche) and musicTerm first used in 1870s to describe art; by 1920s was applied to philosophy (as in Post- the “decadent modernism” described by Nietzsche) and music –First use by an historian: Arnold Toynbee, 1939, describing WWI as start of “Post- Modern” age Very influential in last half of 20 th c. – a version of “postmodern” exists in architecture, law, philosophy, et alVery influential in last half of 20 th c. – a version of “postmodern” exists in architecture, law, philosophy, et al

43. Postmodernism Many, if not all, “realities” are social constructsMany, if not all, “realities” are social constructs –Since constructs are subject to change, so, too, are realities subject to change. There is no absolute truthThere is no absolute truth –Each individual constructs their own “truth” People perceive the world subjectivelyPeople perceive the world subjectively –language, power relations, and motivations are the basis for the formation of ideas and beliefs Rejects black-and-white argumentsRejects black-and-white arguments –realities are plural and relative, dependent on who the interested parties are and the nature of their interests. Social dynamics (power, hierarchy, etc) affect human conceptualizations of the world and profoundly affect the way knowledge is constructed and accessedSocial dynamics (power, hierarchy, etc) affect human conceptualizations of the world and profoundly affect the way knowledge is constructed and accessed

44. Can you see the roots of any conflicts in this chart?

45. Rianne Eisler, The Chalice and the Blade (1988) The first [model for the organization of society], which I call the dominator model, is what is popularly termed either patriarchy or matriarchy – the ranking of one half of humanity over the other. The second, in which social relations are primarily based on the principle of linking rather than ranking, may best be described as the partnership model. In this model – beginning with the most fundamental differences in our species, between male and female – diversity is not equated with either inferiority or superiority.

47. SCHOOLS OF HISTORICAL THOUGHT

48. Historical Schools Groups of like-minded academicsGroups of like-minded academics Individual historians may or may not "officially" subscribe to one or more schoolsIndividual historians may or may not "officially" subscribe to one or more schools –Changes in school over the course of an academic career not unheard of Some popular schools of the past are now defunct and/or discreditedSome popular schools of the past are now defunct and/or discredited

49. Whig Historians “Great Men/Great Events” (AJP Taylor)“Great Men/Great Events” (AJP Taylor) Short-term factorsShort-term factors Where have we come from?Where have we come from? Peaceful, evolutionary progressPeaceful, evolutionary progress –Grew out of ideas of Classical Liberalism (late 18 th /early 19 th c.) –Individuals acting with free will –Progress leading up to the present –Past judged w/ present-day values

50. Whig Historiography stresses the rise of constitutional government, personal freedoms, and scientific progressstresses the rise of constitutional government, personal freedoms, and scientific progress sees the past as an inevitable progression towards ever greater liberty and enlightenment, culminating in modern forms of liberal democracy (e.g. constitutional monarchy)sees the past as an inevitable progression towards ever greater liberty and enlightenment, culminating in modern forms of liberal democracy (e.g. constitutional monarchy) In history of science, a term for those who focus only on the successful avenues of research and experimentationIn history of science, a term for those who focus only on the successful avenues of research and experimentation Term sometimes used pejoratively – purely Whiggish history now seen as naïve, simplisticTerm sometimes used pejoratively – purely Whiggish history now seen as naïve, simplistic

51. Toryism: the Conservative Response to Whigism Toryism rests on doubt in human nature; it distrusts improvement, clings to traditional institutions, prefers the past to the future. It is a sentiment rather than a principle.Toryism rests on doubt in human nature; it distrusts improvement, clings to traditional institutions, prefers the past to the future. It is a sentiment rather than a principle. –AJP Taylor, 20 th c. British historian

52. Some Quotes from Whig History And how can man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods?And how can man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods? A single breaker may recede; but the tide is evidently coming in.A single breaker may recede; but the tide is evidently coming in. I shall cheerfully bear the reproach of having descended below the dignity of history if I can succeed in placing before the English of the nineteenth century a true picture of the life of their ancestors.I shall cheerfully bear the reproach of having descended below the dignity of history if I can succeed in placing before the English of the nineteenth century a true picture of the life of their ancestors. –All quotes from Thomas B. MacAulay, Whig Politician & Historian

53. A Quote on Whig History It was fiercely partisan and righteously judgmental, dividing the personnel of the past into the good and the bad. And it did so on the basis of the marked preference for liberal and progressive causes, rather than conservative and reactionary ones. [...] Whig history was, in short, an extremely biased view of the past: eager to hand out moral judgments, and distorted by teleology, anachronism and present-mindedness.It was fiercely partisan and righteously judgmental, dividing the personnel of the past into the good and the bad. And it did so on the basis of the marked preference for liberal and progressive causes, rather than conservative and reactionary ones. [...] Whig history was, in short, an extremely biased view of the past: eager to hand out moral judgments, and distorted by teleology, anachronism and present-mindedness. Roger Scruton, A Dictionary of Political Thought (1982)Roger Scruton, A Dictionary of Political Thought (1982)

54. Teleology any philosophical account which holds that final causes exist in nature, i.e., design and purpose like that found in human actions are also inherent in natureany philosophical account which holds that final causes exist in nature, i.e., design and purpose like that found in human actions are also inherent in nature –Basically, that events occur because of what they lead to GWF Hegel: the 'totality' of mutually antagonistic world-views and life-forms in history are 'goal- driven', that is, oriented towards an end-point in historyGWF Hegel: the 'totality' of mutually antagonistic world-views and life-forms in history are 'goal- driven', that is, oriented towards an end-point in history Use in history declined rapidly after WWIIUse in history declined rapidly after WWII –Seen as reductive, exclusionary by most postmodern historians –Modern science avoids teleological explanations b/c whether they are true or false is argued to be beyond the ability of human capability to judge

55. Marxist Historians “Historical Materialism”“Historical Materialism” –Seeks the causes of developments and changes in human society in the means by which humans collectively produce the necessities of life Mid-term factorsMid-term factors Where are we going?Where are we going? Revolutionary, violent progress through definite stages of developmentRevolutionary, violent progress through definite stages of development –Tribal, Slavery, Feudalism, Capitalism, Socialism Economics dictate the strategy of historyEconomics dictate the strategy of history –Individuals simply provide tactics non-economic features of a society (e.g. social classes, political structures, ideologies) are seen as being an outgrowth of its economic activitynon-economic features of a society (e.g. social classes, political structures, ideologies) are seen as being an outgrowth of its economic activity

56. Marxist- and marxist Historiography Marxist history is Deterministic (i.e., society is heading toward an historical end – in this case, a classless society), but with an emphasis on the Dialectic (change)Marxist history is Deterministic (i.e., society is heading toward an historical end – in this case, a classless society), but with an emphasis on the Dialectic (change) Small-m marxist historians use marxist methodology, but are not necessarily believers in mainstream MarxismSmall-m marxist historians use marxist methodology, but are not necessarily believers in mainstream Marxism

57. A Major Problem with Marxist Historiography If history is always unfolding the same way (ie, class conflict) as it marches toward a pre-determined outcome, then doesn’t “doing” history become an exercise in just making the pieces fit together?If history is always unfolding the same way (ie, class conflict) as it marches toward a pre-determined outcome, then doesn’t “doing” history become an exercise in just making the pieces fit together?

58. Marx on Marxist History It is not history which uses men as a means of achieving - as if it were an individual person - its own ends. History is nothing but the activity of men in pursuit of their ends.It is not history which uses men as a means of achieving - as if it were an individual person - its own ends. History is nothing but the activity of men in pursuit of their ends. Anyone who knows anything of history knows that great social changes are impossible without feminine upheaval. Social progress can be measured exactly by the social position of the fair sex, the ugly ones included.Anyone who knows anything of history knows that great social changes are impossible without feminine upheaval. Social progress can be measured exactly by the social position of the fair sex, the ugly ones included.

59. Influence of Marxist Histories “History from Below” - historical narrative which attempts to account for historical events from the perspective of common people rather than political and other leaders“History from Below” - historical narrative which attempts to account for historical events from the perspective of common people rather than political and other leaders –EX: Howard Zinn, A People’s History of the United States Cliometrics – study of source materials (tax ledgers, census data, baptismal records, etc) in order to tell the history of groups without a tradition of scholarshipCliometrics – study of source materials (tax ledgers, census data, baptismal records, etc) in order to tell the history of groups without a tradition of scholarship –In the past, this meant the proletariat (q/v, Marc Bloch, Feudal Society) –Nowadays, cliometrics used to study groups like women and enslaved peoples

60. The Annales School Annales d'Histoire Economique et Sociale ("Annals of economic and social history"), founded in Paris, 1929Annales d'Histoire Economique et Sociale ("Annals of economic and social history"), founded in Paris, 1929 Primarily concerned with history prior to the French Revolution (1789- 1799)Primarily concerned with history prior to the French Revolution (1789- 1799) Methodology incorporates the social sciences (anthropology, archaeology, criminology, economics, etc.) into historical researchMethodology incorporates the social sciences (anthropology, archaeology, criminology, economics, etc.) into historical research highly influential in Europe and Latin Americahighly influential in Europe and Latin America

61. Annales Historians Social, geographic themes; generally hostile to Marxist class analysisSocial, geographic themes; generally hostile to Marxist class analysis Long-term factorsLong-term factors Are we going anywhere?Are we going anywhere? Questions the whole notion of progressQuestions the whole notion of progress Emphasizes social, rather than diplomatic or political themesEmphasizes social, rather than diplomatic or political themes

62. Annales Quotes “Individuals, and even societies, are merely short-term ripples on mid-term waves subject to long-term tides.”“Individuals, and even societies, are merely short-term ripples on mid-term waves subject to long-term tides.” –Fernand Braudel, French historian “[I]…relegated the sensational to the sidelines and was reluctant to give a simple accounting of events, but strived on the contrary to pose and solve problems and, neglecting surface disturbances, to observe the long and medium- term evolution of economy, society and civilisation.”“[I]…relegated the sensational to the sidelines and was reluctant to give a simple accounting of events, but strived on the contrary to pose and solve problems and, neglecting surface disturbances, to observe the long and medium- term evolution of economy, society and civilisation.” –Georges Duby, Le dimanche de Bouvines

63. Revisionism Either: legitimate scholastic re-examination of existing knowledge about a historical eventlegitimate scholastic re-examination of existing knowledge about a historical eventOr an illegitimate distortion of the historical record such that certain events appear in a more or less favorable lightan illegitimate distortion of the historical record such that certain events appear in a more or less favorable light Also used in its negative context by Communists to attack fellow Communists who do not share the attacker’s interpretations of Communist doctrineAlso used in its negative context by Communists to attack fellow Communists who do not share the attacker’s interpretations of Communist doctrine

64. Negationism Another name for the negative side of revisionism, almost always conducted for political purposesAnother name for the negative side of revisionism, almost always conducted for political purposes 3 main techniques –Deception: using falsified information, lying, and obscuring the truth to manipulate information or opinion –Denial: keeping information from being shared or claiming facts are untrue –Relativization and trivialization: false equivalencies. Does not make claims on facts, but moral judgments

65. Revisionism is… "a consciously falsified or distorted interpretation of the past to serve partisan or ideological purposes in the present.“"a consciously falsified or distorted interpretation of the past to serve partisan or ideological purposes in the present.“ James MacPherson, President of the American Historical Association (2003)James MacPherson, President of the American Historical Association (2003)

66. The difference between us and them… Reputable and professional historians do not suppress parts of quotations from documents that go against their own case, but take them into account, and, if necessary, amend their own case, accordingly. They do not present, as genuine, documents which they know to be forged just because these forgeries happen to back up what they are saying. They do not invent ingenious, but implausible, and utterly unsupported reasons for distrusting genuine documents, because these documents run counter to their arguments; again, they amend their arguments, if this is the case, or, indeed, abandon them altogether. They do not consciously attribute their own conclusions to books and other sources, which, in fact, on closer inspection, actually say the opposite…Reputable and professional historians do not suppress parts of quotations from documents that go against their own case, but take them into account, and, if necessary, amend their own case, accordingly. They do not present, as genuine, documents which they know to be forged just because these forgeries happen to back up what they are saying. They do not invent ingenious, but implausible, and utterly unsupported reasons for distrusting genuine documents, because these documents run counter to their arguments; again, they amend their arguments, if this is the case, or, indeed, abandon them altogether. They do not consciously attribute their own conclusions to books and other sources, which, in fact, on closer inspection, actually say the opposite…

67. …and some more things Real Historians don’t do …They do not eagerly seek out the highest possible figures in a series of statistics, independently of their reliability, or otherwise, simply because they want, for whatever reason, to maximize the figure in question, but rather, they assess all the available figures, as impartially as possible, in order to arrive at a number that will withstand the critical scrutiny of others. They do not knowingly mistranslate sources in foreign languages in order to make them more serviceable to themselves. They do not willfully invent words, phrases, quotations, incidents and events, for which there is no historical evidence, in order to make their arguments more plausible.…They do not eagerly seek out the highest possible figures in a series of statistics, independently of their reliability, or otherwise, simply because they want, for whatever reason, to maximize the figure in question, but rather, they assess all the available figures, as impartially as possible, in order to arrive at a number that will withstand the critical scrutiny of others. They do not knowingly mistranslate sources in foreign languages in order to make them more serviceable to themselves. They do not willfully invent words, phrases, quotations, incidents and events, for which there is no historical evidence, in order to make their arguments more plausible. –Richard J. Evans. David Irving, “Hitler and Holocaust Denial”

68. These things have been known for a long time… The good historian, then, must be thus described: he must be fearless, uncorrupted, free, the friend of truth and of liberty; one who, to use the words of the comic poet, calls a fig a fig, and a skiff a skiff, neither giving nor withholding from any, from favour or from enmity, not influenced by pity, by shame, or by remorse; a just judge, so far benevolent to all as never to give more than is due to any in his work; a stranger to all, of no country, bound only by his own laws, acknowledging no sovereign, never considering what this or that man may say of him, but relating faithfully everything as it happened.The good historian, then, must be thus described: he must be fearless, uncorrupted, free, the friend of truth and of liberty; one who, to use the words of the comic poet, calls a fig a fig, and a skiff a skiff, neither giving nor withholding from any, from favour or from enmity, not influenced by pity, by shame, or by remorse; a just judge, so far benevolent to all as never to give more than is due to any in his work; a stranger to all, of no country, bound only by his own laws, acknowledging no sovereign, never considering what this or that man may say of him, but relating faithfully everything as it happened. Lucian of Samosata, 2 nd c. CELucian of Samosata, 2 nd c. CE

69. Selected Bibliography Conkin, Paul. Heritage and Challenge : the history and theory of history. Arlington Heights, Ill: Forum Press, 1989.Conkin, Paul. Heritage and Challenge : the history and theory of history. Arlington Heights, Ill: Forum Press, 1989. Slides 21-29 adapted from “Some Thoughts on Causation” by Robert C. Newman, available at http://www.docstoc.com/docs/115943425/ Causation-%28PowerPoint-download%29 (accessed 27 July 2012)Slides 21-29 adapted from “Some Thoughts on Causation” by Robert C. Newman, available at http://www.docstoc.com/docs/115943425/ Causation-%28PowerPoint-download%29 (accessed 27 July 2012) http://www.docstoc.com/docs/115943425/ Causation-%28PowerPoint-download%29 http://www.docstoc.com/docs/115943425/ Causation-%28PowerPoint-download%29

70. BONUS! PAREIDOLIA!

71. Pareidolia a psychological phenomenon involving a vague and random stimulus (often an image or sound) being perceived as significanta psychological phenomenon involving a vague and random stimulus (often an image or sound) being perceived as significant EX: Man in the Moon, Moon Rabbit, Face on Mars, sound recordings played backwardEX: Man in the Moon, Moon Rabbit, Face on Mars, sound recordings played backward

73. Pareidolia Ebihens, France Galle Crater, Mars

74. Pareidolia & the “Face on Mars”

75. Hi-Res imagery of “Face on Mars” hill, 2001 http://www.msss.c om/mars_images/m oc/extended_may20 01/face/index.html http://www.msss.c om/mars_images/m oc/extended_may20 01/face/index.html http://www.msss.c om/mars_images/m oc/extended_may20 01/face/index.html

76. I’m sorry that there’s no man-made face on Mars, because trust me:

77. Hey, is that nebula flipping us off?

78. Rorschach Inkblot Test – “directed pareidolia”

79. Ex: Card 3 (of 10) Beck: two humans (gray) Piotrowski: human figures (72%, gray) Dana (France): human (76%, gray) Card III is typically perceived to contain two humans involved in some interaction, and may provide information about how the subject relates with other people (specifically, response latency may reveal struggling social interactions).

80. A CASE STUDY IN CAUSALITY AND DETERMINISM

81. Some Puzzling Questions… Among the objections sometimes raised regarding the Bible are alleged contradictions regarding causation. For example:Among the objections sometimes raised regarding the Bible are alleged contradictions regarding causation. For example: –Who caused David to take a census of Israel? Was it Satan or was it God?Was it Satan or was it God? –Who hardened Pharaoh's heart when Moses was seeking to lead Israel out of slavery? Was it God or was it Pharaoh himself?Was it God or was it Pharaoh himself? Abstracts of Powerpoint Talks - newmanlib.ibri.org -newmanlib.ibri.org

82. David’s Census 2 Sam 24:1 (NIV) Again the anger of the LORD burned against Israel, and he incited David against them, saying, "Go and take a census of Israel and Judah." 2 So the king said to Joab and the army commanders with him, "Go throughout the tribes of Israel from Dan to Beersheba and enroll the fighting men, so that I may know how many there are." Abstracts of Powerpoint Talks - newmanlib.ibri.org -newmanlib.ibri.org

83. David’s Census 1 Chron 21:1 (NIV) Satan rose up against Israel and incited David to take a census of Israel. 2 So David said to Joab and the commanders of the troops, "Go and count the Israelites from Beersheba to Dan. Then report back to me so that I may know how many there are." Abstracts of Powerpoint Talks - newmanlib.ibri.org -newmanlib.ibri.org

84. Hardening Pharoah’s Heart Exod 8:30 (NIV) Then Moses left Pharaoh and prayed to the LORD, 31 and the LORD did what Moses asked: The flies left Pharaoh and his officials and his people; not a fly remained. 32 But this time also Pharaoh hardened his heart and would not let the people go. Abstracts of Powerpoint Talks - newmanlib.ibri.org -newmanlib.ibri.org

85. Hardening Pharoah’s Heart Exod 9:11 (NIV) The magicians could not stand before Moses because of the boils that were on them and on all the Egyptians. 12 But the LORD hardened Pharaoh's heart and he would not listen to Moses and Aaron, just as the LORD had said to Moses. 13 Then the LORD said to Moses, “Get up early in the morning, confront Pharaoh and say to him, ‘This is what the LORD, the God of the Hebrews, says: Let my people go, so that they may worship me…’” Abstracts of Powerpoint Talks - newmanlib.ibri.org -newmanlib.ibri.org

86. Causation? So, who caused David to take a census of Israel?So, who caused David to take a census of Israel? –God or Satan? –Both of them! Who hardened Pharaoh's heart so that he would not let Israel go?Who hardened Pharaoh's heart so that he would not let Israel go? –God or Pharaoh? –Both of them! Abstracts of Powerpoint Talks - newmanlib.ibri.org -newmanlib.ibri.org

87. Layered Causation To further complicate matters, causation is often multi-layeredTo further complicate matters, causation is often multi-layered Consider first the census:Consider first the census: –Who actually took the census? David?David? Joab?Joab? His commanders?His commanders? Some subordinates?Some subordinates? Abstracts of Powerpoint Talks - newmanlib.ibri.org -newmanlib.ibri.org

88. David’s Census Obviously, it depends on what you mean by “who took the census?”Obviously, it depends on what you mean by “who took the census?” –David ordered Joab to do so. –Joab presumably ordered the commanders. –The commanders ordered various subordinates. –Down at the bottom of the chain of command, certain subordinates actually took the count. Abstracts of Powerpoint Talks - newmanlib.ibri.org -newmanlib.ibri.org

89. David’s Census So we can say that each of these “took the census” in the sense of causing it to happen.So we can say that each of these “took the census” in the sense of causing it to happen. –The cause of the census was layered, something like an onion. Similarly, who caused David to take the census is layered, with both God and Satan being causes at different levels – though at this point, the argument begins to stray into the realm of the theological…Similarly, who caused David to take the census is layered, with both God and Satan being causes at different levels – though at this point, the argument begins to stray into the realm of the theological… Abstracts of Powerpoint Talks - newmanlib.ibri.org -newmanlib.ibri.org

90. Interesting Reads 14 slides on Causation14 slides on Causation – –http://www- personal.umd.umich.edu/~delittle/causation %20in%20meso%20history.htmhttp://www- personal.umd.umich.edu/~delittle/causation %20in%20meso%20history.htm PostmodernismPostmodernism –http://www.postmodernpsychology.com/Phil osophical_Systems/Overview.htm http://www.postmodernpsychology.com/Phil osophical_Systems/Overview.htmhttp://www.postmodernpsychology.com/Phil osophical_Systems/Overview.htm

92. Homework In your Notebook, write responses to ONE of the following: Describe your jury’s decision-making process and its results/verdict in the Billy Elliott InquestDescribe your jury’s decision-making process and its results/verdict in the Billy Elliott Inquest OROR To which of the historiographical schools do you most clearly belong? Explain.To which of the historiographical schools do you most clearly belong? Explain.

93. If you were absent… Read “The Tragic Case of Billy Elliott” and the associated assignment. Instead of a jury verdict, describe in your Notebook how each of the following would rule on the cause of Billy Elliott’s premature demise:Read “The Tragic Case of Billy Elliott” and the associated assignment. Instead of a jury verdict, describe in your Notebook how each of the following would rule on the cause of Billy Elliott’s premature demise: –MacAulay –Marx –Braudel –You

94. Homework Copy this chart into your Notebook. Complete the first two columns using the statements provided, then come up with two more of your own to develop your understanding. People in the Middle Ages were devoutly religious Most Germans were not Nazis; they were brainwashed or terrorized into supporting Hitler What is one piece of evidence you could use to prove this point? What value would this evidence have to an historian studying this question? What are the limitations of this evidence for an historian studying this question?