1. Can Farmers continue to keep us water secure? Tony Allan King’s College London Food and Farming Entrepreneurs Network Stockbridge Technology Centre, Cawood, Selby 15 September 2011 1FFEN - 15 September 2011

2. Purpose to: Highlight some familiar issues & some new insights Emphasise the importance of politics, farmers, & understanding the food supply value chain The message will be mainly about the market but we shall not forget the water 2FFEN - 15 September 2011

3. Green water matters 3FFEN - 15 September 2011

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6. Virtual water matters Virtual water is the water embedded in food commodities It takes 1000 tonnes (m3) of water to raise a tonne of wheat It takes 16000 tonnes (m3) of water to raise a tonne of beef 6FFEN - 15 September 2011

7. Virtual water matters Virtual water is the water embedded in food commodities It takes 1000 tonnes (m3) of water to raise a tonne of wheat It takes 16000 tonnes (m3) of water to raise a tonne of beef 7FFEN - 15 September 2011

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9. 9 Contribution of different crops to the total global water footprint of crop production - 1996-2005 Mekonnen & Hoekstra 2011

10. 10FFEN - 15 September 2011 The green, blue, gray and total water footprint of crop production mm/year - 1996-2005 Mekonnen & Hoekstra 2011

11. 11FFEN - 15 September 2011 Wherever you irrigate you always run out of water Contribution of the blue water to the total consumptive (green and blue) water footprint of crop production - 1996-2005 Mekonnen & Hoekstra 2011

12. 12FFEN - 15 September 2011 Green & blue virtual water ‘flows’ related to wheat trade by major importing and exporting countries – green are exporters, red are importers Aldaya, Allan & Hoekstra 2011

13. 13FFEN - 15 September 2011 Aldaya, Allan & Hoekstra 2011 UK Italy NL Spain Germany

14. Conditions, some history, trends and some questions Local water endowments are not determining Poverty matters, global trade matters, peace matters Net virtual water ‘importers’ are normal – 160/210 nvi’s Capacities to solve water problems in the global system matter Food & water security are achieved beyond the water sector in diverse economies 14FFEN - 15 September 2011

15. Is there enough water in the global system to meet the food demands of future populations? Who matters? Agents in the food supply chain. What matters? Rules and organisations in the food supply chain. 15FFEN - 15 September 2011

16. Threshold for national food security Developed countries World Asia One liter of water produces one calorie on average Food Supply in Calories 16FFEN - 15 September 2011

17. Will there be enough water? More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050 More calories & more meat, fish, milk More food production – need to increase grain production by 2050 – 40%? 70%? 100%? More water for food – via sustainable intensification Pessimists are wrong but useful Optimists are right but dangerous? 17FFEN - 15 September 2011

18. Investing in Irrigation Irrigation Food price index World Bank lending for irrigation 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1960 196519701975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 2010 July 2008 Jan 2009 Living Planet index Freshwater Irrigation in SSA 18FFEN - 15 September 2011

19. Growth in Yields United States China Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa IPCC – yields in SSA will decline by 50% because of climate change It is possible to more than double yields in SSA in spite of climate change. 19FFEN - 15 September 2011

20. Water demand Population driven – problems in MENA, Africa & South Asia Consumption – diet and waste driven Water supply Green and blue water Water productivity Water stewardship Green water tends to look after itself Mainly a blue water issue – because wherever we irrigate we run out of water. Hesitate to irrigate. 20FFEN - 15 September 2011

21. Water Scarcity and Climate Change Some areas wetter, some areas drier 21FFEN - 15 September 2011

22. Take away messages and solutions Sustainable intensification – Increased returns to water and good water resource stewardship. Help farmers. Understanding the food supply value chain Waste Consumption – demography, food choice, individual & environmental health Metaphor / Method / Metrics 22FFEN - 15 September 2011

23. Sustainable intensification Increased returns to water and water resource stewardship Farmers manage nearly all the consumptive use of water. All the green water used from the root zone and 70% of all blue water. 90% of total use. They have increased water productivity four times in the past half century. We need to help them further intensify BUT the intensification must be sustainable and not commit suicide. 23FFEN - 15 September 2011

24. Understanding the food supply value chain The supply chain is wholly in the water value blind private sector The food supply chain operates in an accounting environment agreed by accountants & lawyers in: the FASB in NY, IASB in London – they are not here the big 5 – PwC - here, KPMG, E&Y, Deloitte, Accenture the private sector transnationals – eg the Non-Brands (A, B, C, D) handle 70% of traded food – not here, the Brands (Coke, Pepsi, Nestle, Unilever, SABMiller, WalMart) – here. And the rest. The accounting rules get the private sector to account for paper clips and paper cups. But not for water in the food supply chain. 24FFEN - 15 September 2011

25. Understanding the food supply value chain The supply chain is wholly in the private sector The market is value of water blind 25FFEN - 15 September 2011

26. Understanding the food supply value chain The supply chain is wholly in the private sector The market is value of water blind 26FFEN - 15 September 2011

27. Waste We waste water in the food supply chain when we waste food. 30% is wasted between the farm gate and the market in less developed economies. In industrialised economies families throw 30% of purchased food away. Wasted food is wasted water and wasted energy. 27FFEN - 15 September 2011

28. Consumers Eat badly because of their food choices Diets, with for example too much beef, are very bad for human and environmental health. In industrialised economies the water and energy footprint of food consumption could be reduced by 30% by eating healthily. 1.0 bn Indians need to stay vegetarian 1.3 bn Chinese should continue to prefer pork and chicken to beef 28FFEN - 15 September 2011

29. Metaphor / Method / Metrics Metaphor – virtual water & water footprints – awareness raising Creating Shared Values campaign pioneered by the Brands (Nestle, Coke, Unilever et al) to engage the whole food supply chain in achieving sustainable production, marketing and consumption. Metrics How do we capture the costs of water inputs and the environmental impacts of food production in food prices? Corporations need to publish summary Shared Value Accounts alongside conventional Financial Accounts. (Porter 2011) 29FFEN - 15 September 2011

30. Political, market, environmental contexts of solutions Political Remedy consequences of cheap food policies – of.GOV &.COM alliance to satisfy voters and consumers Social Inform consumers on waste & food choice (obesity – human health) Market The private sector agents in the food supply chain have the potential to link consumers and farmers and are shaping to do it The water and food sectors need to rethink accounting standards Environmental Remedy blue water scarcity hotspots – environmental health Research Invest in agricultural science investment – public and private 30FFEN - 15 September 2011

31. Thank you ta1@soas.ac.uk 31FFEN - 15 September 2011