1. Are All the Data Making a Difference? 1

2. 2

3. Numerical Simulation 24 hours CPU = 1 hour real 20 TB of output Still trying to understand Mother Nature Real time! Still trying to understand Data Don’t Guarantee Understanding!

4. Sample: March 2000 Fort Worth Tornadic Storm

5. Tornado Local TV Station Radar

6. NWS 12-hr Computer Forecast Valid at 6 pm CDT (near tornado time) No Explicit Evidence of Precipitation in North Texas

7. Reality Was Quite Different!

8. 6 pm 7 pm8 pm Radar Xue et al. (2003) Fort Worth

9. 6 pm 7 pm8 pm Radar Fcst With Radar Data 2 hr 3 hr 4 hr Xue et al. (2003) Fort Worth

10. Real Time Testing Today: FORECAST

11. Real Time Testing Today: RADAR 9-Hour Forecast

14. Each set of forecasts (ensemble and individual) – produces 6 TB of output PER DAY – Requires 9000 cores (750 nodes) of the Kraken Cray XT5 at Oak Ridge – Takes 6.5 hours to run Provisioning of data in real time HUGE value for research – predictability! Management in a repository – retention time? Experiment reproducibility!! Creating products that will benefit the public (smart device location-based warnings) Challenges

15. Warn on Explicit Forecast?

16. Be careful what you wish for! A one-hour model-based “tornado warning” would be a game changer Social and behavioral science elements are critical Our ability to effectively warn the public and understand its response is relatively crude Challenges