1. Self-Destructive Policies Nico Cloete 2016 Registrars Imbizo Garden Court Hotel, Marine Parade, Durban (Monday 7 March 2016) UWC Institute of Post-School Studies

2. 2 Current issues not addressed in 1995/6 1.No fees – NSFAS 2.Colonialism 3.Changing forms of organisation 4.Weak institutional leadership 5.Development – research and doctoral education (Dakar Summit, March 2016) 6.Ministerial /Bureaucratic capacity weaker, rather than stronger – knowledge of how HE institutions much weaker 7.Environment much more conflictual – and less informed 8.The programme somewhat a reflection of current situation 9.Self destructive policies – a policy or a state of the system Policy: 1996- 20016

3. 3 1.Big picture – International Panel on Social Progress 2.Knowledge production in African HE 3.SA Best HE system in Africa 4.What’s wrong with the Best HE system 5.Fees is not the Cause of the Crisis, but a Symptom 6.Third Force in SA Student Activism Structure of Presentation

4. 4 Youth bulge: Africa is increasingly the youngest continent

5. 5 Primary educationSecondary EducationTertiary educationGCI GERQRGERQR (+M&S)GERRoRGCI Stage 1: Factor-driven Ghana891046776 (72)1229119 Kenya84 6736 (78)42299 Mozambique8713826119 (133) 518133 Pakistan721123875 (89)101564 Tanzania841243398 (130)419120 Uganda921132781 (111)4-115 Transition from 1 to 2 Botswana90858277 (95)20-71 Stage 2: Efficiency-driven Egypt9513986139 (131)30-116 South Africa90127111138 (140)204049 China98558956 (49)262128 Transition from 2 to 3 Chile921088986 (107)751835 Costa Rica903910928 (55)482052 Brazil8713299132 (134)261775 Malaysia9715716 (12)372218 Mauritius98489649 (50)412246 Turkey951008692 (103)701551 Stage 3: Innovation-driven Austria98309837 (37)72923 Finland9911084 (2)94-8 Korea, Rep.98369766 (30)991326 Norway1001711111 (24)741011 Singapore10031083 (1)83112 United States91299418 (44)94153

6. 6 “Climate change and educational access are two of the greatest challenges to the human race. Ameliorating schooling is even more important than fixing governmental debt: the more urgent need is to increase our educational capital” (568). “Furthermore the best way to reduce inequality and increase the overall growth of the economy is to invest in education. To maintain a competitive edge in a rapidly transforming knowledge economy, countries need to invest more in quality education. Not even minimum wage schedules can multiply wages by factors of five or ten: to achieve that level of progress, education and technology are the decisive factors.” One of Piketty’s five prescriptions for South Africa is quality schooling – but poor kids go to poor quality schools Piketty: Capital (2014)

7. 7

8. 8 Private returns to education by level and region (WB, 2014) Source: Montenegro & Patrinos 2014 Human development reports comparable estimates of returns to schooling around the world. Washington DC: The World Bank

9. Africa’s research performance 1.Publications in Africa increased from 11 776 in 2002 to 19 650 in 2008 – 66.9% growth (world average = 34.5%). 2.Africa’s share globally increased from 1.6% to 2.0%, Latin America from 3.8% to 4.9% and Asia from 24.2% to 30.7%. 3.From 2000-2008 Asia’s share of researchers rose from 35.2% to 38.2%, Latin America from 3.0% to 3.8% and Africa’s global share of researcher share fell from 2.2% to 2.1%. 4.African Union publication output grew by 43% compared to the world average of 18% (Source: Scopus). 5.If the African Union were a country, it would be just behind India, China and Brazil, but ahead of Russia in publication output in the BRICS. Sources: African Observatory for Science, Technology and Innovation; Zaleza P. 2014. The Development of STEM in Africa.

10. South Africa Best HE System in Africa 1.SA most diverse and differentiated HE system in Africa 2.In 2008 SA system rated by Shanghai as between 27-33: Czech Republic, New Zealand, Ireland 3.Times Higher rated BRICS and Developing Countries: SA 3 in the top 12 – UCT 4; Wits 6 and US 12. Brazil and Russia one each, India with a billion people none and China 6 4.See performance in the HERANA project 5.SA best system a Post graduate system Sources: African Observatory for Science, Technology and Innovation; Zaleza P. 2014. The Development of STEM in Africa.

14. 14 Research output of South African universities Compiled by Charles Sheppard. Source: DHET HEMIS (2013)

15. Doctoral graduates produced by universities in 2012

16. Black doctoral graduates produced by universities in 2012

17. Progress of 2006 intakes of new doctoral students after 7 years by cluster

18. 18 Average annual growth rates by nationality and gender (2000–2012) Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Knowledge Production and Contradictory Functions in African Higher Education

19. South Africa: a PhD Bargain 1.SA has 5 Universities in Shanghai top 500 2.Full-time research PhD Costs UK (Bath) – $21 450 fees (foreigners) + $18 000 living = $46 050 US (Berkeley) – $31 900 fees + $23 000 living = $54 900 US (NYU ) – $41 300 fees + $26 000 living = $67 300 SA (US) – $2000 +$1000 (foreigners) + $10 000 living = $13 000 SA three times cheaper than Bath, four times cheaper than Berkeley and five times cheaper than NYU 3.Golden triangle – Efficiency, Transformation Quality (perceived) 4.But the Africans from the rest of Africa are not SA Africans, not black, not disadvantaged or not “ours” (nationalism or middle class xenophobia?) 5.Too few doctorates at African flagship universities

20. Postgraduate pipeline Source: Crest and DST (2014) 40 908 Bachelor’s Graduates 5 795 masters graduates 10 984 Honours Graduates 897 doctorate graduates 40 908 bachelor graduates 10 984 honours graduates 2001 Only about 40% of honours students are likely to complete their degree within 3 years. Only about 25% of masters degree enrolments are likely to complete their degree within 4 years. Only about 25% of doctoral students are likely to complete their degree within 5 years. Completion rates

21. 21 Factors affecting student choice Financial challenges constitutes the single biggest obstacle to producing more post-graduate students in South Africa Financial challenges are more prevalent for black students at all levels in the system Low progression and retention rates are mainly due to part-time nature of studies (which is related to the lack of funding for full-time studies) Students in the natural sciences (where larger proportions study full-time) have significantly higher progression and completion rates. Various factors influence student choice about continuation and discontinuation of studies but the main reason (again) is availability of funding followed by family considerations. Choice of university and degree programme at all levels is mostly informed by academic reputation and quality considerations (as well as employability factors).

22. 22 1.The shape of the system 2.At university level the undergraduate system is unsustainable 3.Inefficiency – high drop-out, high retention rates: 2006-2013 1.7% growth for new entrants; average annual growth for returning undergraduates 4% 4.Structure – honours 5.All or nothing – with highest private returns in world What’s wrong with the Best System in Africa

23. Cumulative completion rate of the 2008 first-time entering undergraduate cohort (Unisa Excluded) Source: CHE & DHET (2015) Cohort studies

24. Drop-out rates per annum for the 2008 undergraduate first-time entering cohorts (UNISA Excluded) Source: CHE & DHET (2015) Cohort studies Note: The drop-out numbers for 2013 include students that might have returned in 2014 to continue their studies

26. Conditional probability of employment and conditional log of wages by years of education Source: Van den Berg 2015 Inequality, poverty and prospects for redistribution. Dev South Afr. 31(2):197-218

27. 27 1.Pressure on undergraduate is going to destroy the post graduate system 2.Different fee systems, such as deferred graduate needs high graduation and high employment 3.Lack of credible Post Secondary System, a vocational system and youth employment puts too much pressure on HE as “contested ladder out of poverty” 4.University has become part of societal contestation for resources Fees is not the Cause but a Symptom

28. 28 Third force (political parties) in student activism is part of Africa wide phenomenon If the disintegration of the political system and the systematic weakening of institutions is not countered, the universities could, like in many African countries, become institutions where the children of the global elite go overseas, the national elite attends a few public universities (largely undergraduate institutions for the training of civil servants) with no fees, while the rest scramble for fee-paying private colleges who call themselves universities. Mamdani in 1991 (South African exceptionalism) may have seen something we did not! Third Force in Student Activism

29. Dr Nico Cloete ncloete@chet.org.za www.chet.org.za