2. World Population since 1AD and how long it took to put on an extra million people

3. Global fertility – number of children per woman; high point is sub-Saharan Africa

4. Where the median age will be less than 25 in 2030

5. Future population growth (log scale)

7. There are now more human babies born each day-- about 350,000-- than there are individuals left in all the great ape species combined, including gorillas, chimpanzees, bonobos and orangutans.

9. Chimp population estimates 1900- 2003

10. Decline 1980-2000 in suitable environmental conditions for African great apes Diversity and Distributions Volume 18, Issue 11, pages 1077-1091, 23 SEP 2012 DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12005 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12005/full#ddi12005-fig-0004 Volume 18, Issue 11, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12005/full#ddi12005-fig-0004

11. Projected decline to 2030 in suitable environmental conditions for African great apes Diversity and Distributions Volume 18, Issue 11, pages 1077-1091, 23 SEP 2012 DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12005 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12005/full#ddi12005-fig-0001 Volume 18, Issue 11, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12005/full#ddi12005-fig-0001

12. The Voyage of the Beagle 1831-1836

13. Galapagos

15. The bottleneck effect

16. Genetic drift

17. Plus the effect of repeated sampling in small populations (genetic drift)

18. Decrease in numbers of heterozygotes (ie genetic diversity) with time in small populations under genetic drift

19. Pingelap

20. Pingelap – achromotopsia; pupil opens in light, closes in dark; Ben Simon G J et al. Br J Ophthalmol 2004;88:223-225 ©2004 by BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.

21. Tristan da cunha

22. Population of tristan Population of Tristan da Cunha 1815- 1900

23. Retinoblastoma

24. Harmonic mean over k generations: Imagine a fluctuating population: 1000 1000 1000 10 1000 over k=5 generations Arithmetic mean is 802 (4010/5) Harmonic mean is 48 ie a bottleneck can be very important with long-lasting effects! Harmonic mean calc The Harmonic Mean and the joy of bottlenecks

25. Amish Family

26. Amish colonies before 1850

27. Expansion of the Amish since 1990 (red dots)

28. Old Order Amish numbers since 1900 (2014: 220 000 Amish [!])

29. Amish genetics

30. Amish child with Ellis-van-Creveld syndrome: genetic drift

31. Cartilage-hair hypoplasia - Amish

32. Sexual dimorphism; gorillas, chimps, humans

33. RATIO OF MALE TO FEMALE VARIABILITY IN REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS FINLAND 0.79 NORWAY1.02 USA 1.27 YANOMAMA (AMAZON)2.30 XAVANTE (BRAZIL)3.10 ACHE (PARAGUAY)4.22 DOGON (MALI)4.75

34. A family on holiday in Sweden

35. Y chromosome haplotype or “surname”

36. The boundaries of the Mongol Empire (shaded)

37. Genghis Khan

38. Likely world colonisation routes, and genetic distance from E Africa (shades of green)

39. Extent of genetic diversity against walking distance from Addis Ababa

40. Estimated bottleneck size for women (red triangle) and men (blue); modern figure at top, original bottleneck bottom

41. Runs of homozygosity in a modern Frenchman and two Neanderthals – high inbreeding in Neanderthals: small populations?.

42. Size of recent world bottlenecks and effective population sizes ORIGINAL WITH MODERN POPULATION INCREASE Men WomenMenWomen Out of Africa1526---------- Into Europe 1811838008000 Into India741663860029500 Into Australia305221003500 Into Americas21907001800

43. The ultimate bottleneck: Man as an endangered ancient primate

44. Geographical variation in humans and their relatives

46. Human and chimp population sizes over 10my estimated from genetic data

47. The future of one endangered species

48. And another?