1. 1 For: Economic Leadership Roundtable, Port of Douglas County Donald W. Meseck, Regional Labor Economist January 21, 2016 Wenatchee MSA Economy: 2015 in Review

2. 2 Employment and wage trends from 2004-2014 in Chelan and Douglas counties (the Wenatchee MSA)  Slides 3-17 Civilian Labor Force trends through November 2015  Slides 18-20 Nonfarm job trends through November 2015  Slides 21-22 Nonfarm trends through 2015 (2015 data projected)  Slides 23-27 Summary and Questions  Slides 28-29 Today’s presentation

3. 3 Analyzed county-level QCEW data for 22 industries/sectors 19 private-industry sectorsThree government sectors NAICS 11 (Agriculture, forestry and fishing)Federal government NAICS 21 (Mining)State government NAICS 22 (Utilities)Local government NAICS 23 (Construction) NAICS 31-33 (Manufacturing)* North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) NAICS 42 (Wholesale trade) NAICS 44-45 (Retail trade) NAICS 48-49 (Transportation and warehousing) NAICS 51 (Information) NAICS 52 (Finance and insurance) NAICS 53 (Real estate and rentals) NAICS 54 (Professional and business services) NAICS 55 (Management of companies) NAICS 56 (Administrative and waste services) NAICS 61 (Private education services) NAICS 62 (Health services) NAICS 71 (Arts, entertainment and recreation) NAICS 72 (Accommodation and food services)QCEW is the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, a NAICS 81 (Other services)U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data set.

4. 4 Chelan County 2004-2014: Covered employment trends Source: QCEW Data

5. 5 Chelan County: Top 5 industries by employment in 2014 Source: QCEW Data

6. 6 Chelan County 2004-2014: Covered wage/payroll trends Source: QCEW Data

7. 7 Chelan County: Top 5 industries by wages in 2014 Source: QCEW Data

8. 8 Chelan County in 2014: Summary of “Top 5” industries Total covered wages = $1.48 billion Average annual employment = 41,345 Average annual wage = $35,912 (WA = $55,003) IndustryPercent of jobsPercent of wages Agriculture24.115.4 Health services13.620.5 Local government11.515.8 Retail trade10.67.8 Accommodation and food services9.94.8 Wholesale Trade6.07.0

9. 9 Chelan County: Primary Metal Manufacturing (NAICS 331) Employment (as a Percentage of Total Covered Employment from 2004 through 2014)

10. 10 Chelan County: Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33) Employment (as a Percentage of Total Covered Employment from 2004 through 2014)

11. 11 Chelan County: Primary Metal Manufacturing (NAICS 331) Wages (as a Percentage of Total Covered Wages from 2004 through 2014)

12. 12 Chelan County: Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33) Wages (as a Percentage of Total Covered Wages from 2004 through 2014)

13. 13 Douglas County 2004-2014: Covered employment trends Source: QCEW Data

14. 14 Douglas County: Top 5 industries by employment in 2014 Source: QCEW Data

15. 15 Douglas County 2004-2014: Covered wage/payroll trends Source: QCEW Data

16. 16 Douglas County: Top 5 industries by wages in 2014 Source: QCEW Data

17. 17 Douglas County in 2014: Summary of “Top 5” industries Total covered wages = $358.3 million Average annual employment = 11,384 Average annual wage = $31,475 (WA = $55,003) IndustryPercent of jobsPercent of wages Agriculture28.618.7 Local government15.323.1 Retail trade12.010.5 Health services7.75.9 Accommodation and food services5.92.6 Manufacturing4.25.6

18. 18 Average Annual Unemployment Rates in the Wenatchee MSA and in Washington from 2005-2014

19. 19 Labor Force Changes in the Wenatchee MSA and Washington in the last twelve months

20. 20 Wenatchee MSA: Civilian Labor Force: From November 2014-November 2015

21. 21 Nonfarm employment changes in the Wenatchee MSA and Washington in the last twelve months

22. 22 Wenatchee MSA: Nonfarm Employment From November 2014-November 2015

23. 23 The number of nonfarm jobs has risen in the Wenatchee MSA and Washington for the past five years

24. 24 By 2014 the local economy regained all nonfarm jobs lost in 2009 and 2010 Source: CES Data, LMPA, ESD

25. 25 Wenatchee MSA: Projected nonfarm job growth in major industries in 2015

26. 26 Leisure and hospitality ranked “Number 1” (in # of jobs added) in 2015 in the Wenatchee MSA

27. 27 Construction ranked “Number 1” (in % of jobs added) in 2015 in the Wenatchee MSA

28. 28 The local unemployment rate fell from 7.6 in 2013 to 6.7 percent in 2014. The rate will fall again in 2015 (exact amount TBD). Nonfarm jobs averaged 42,700 in 2015, up 2,100 and 5.3 percent since 2014. Growth was strong in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, and construction. However, nonfarm job growth rates and labor force growth rates decelerated in the last half of 2015. With Alcoa idling their smelter in Malaga, local manufacturing employment will “take a hit.” Wenatchee MSA economy: “vigorous” in the first half but “tired” in the last half of 2015

29. 29 Labor Market Information (LMI) POC Donald W. Meseck Regional Labor Economist for Adams, Chelan, Douglas, Grant, Kittitas, Okanogan, and Yakima Counties Labor Market and Performance Analysis (LMPA) Employment Security Department Address: 306 Division Street, Yakima, WA 98902 Phone: (509) 573-4564 Email: dmeseck@esd.wa.govdmeseck@esd.wa.gov Website: https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmenthttps://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employment