1. Excel Books Human Resource Management (2nd Edition) Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Copyright © 2006, Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Human Resource Planning Process Unit:7 Block: Two Human Resource Procurement 7-1 7 Unit Human Resource Planning Process

2. Excel Books Human Resource Management (2nd Edition) Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Copyright © 2006, Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Human Resource Planning Process Unit:7 Block: Two Human Resource Procurement 7-2 Introduction Almost all developed countries today are facing the crisis of quality manpower. The problem is so acute for them that they are now going for direct recruitment in developing countries instead of outsourcing from body shoppers. The United Kingdom is now finding them in a very awkward situation for non-availability of teachers. Nearly 2,00000 teachers need to be recruited by them from developing countries, including India, to man such posts. the global scenario is necessary to understand the problem of HRP across the world. HRP process cannot be something like a thumb rule which is universally applicable. It varies from organisation to organisation. In this chapter, we have discussed the HRP process in general, which may merit the attention of practitioners. But what to adopt and what not, is left to the practitioners to identify, keeping pace with organisational requirements.

3. Excel Books Human Resource Management (2nd Edition) Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Copyright © 2006, Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Human Resource Planning Process Unit:7 Block: Two Human Resource Procurement 7-3 HRP Process Outline Let us once again review a definition of HRP of HMSO, 1974. It is a strategy for the acquisition, utilization and retention of an enterprise's human resources. It seeks to link policy and practice in day to day decision-making. Thus inter-relationship of HRP with other HR functions is a established hypothesis, as evident from corporate practices. We can broadly delineate the HRP process into four different stages as under: 1. Investigation 2. Forecasting 3. Planning and Control of Manpower 4. Utilisation

4. Excel Books Human Resource Management (2nd Edition) Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Copyright © 2006, Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Human Resource Planning Process Unit:7 Block: Two Human Resource Procurement 7-4 Cont…. Time-scale of HRP Forecasts Determining the time-scale of human resource forecasts is very important to decide about their availability and chart the possible action to meet the requirement. We have already explained that forecasts for the manpower or human resources are made at the organisational level, keeping in view demand and supply analysis, internal availability, external availability, employment practices, etc. Depending on the time-frame, which again depends on the basis of requirement, nature of analysis of the above factors, keeps on changing.

5. Excel Books Human Resource Management (2nd Edition) Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Copyright © 2006, Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Human Resource Planning Process Unit:7 Block: Two Human Resource Procurement 7-5 Cont…. Time-frame Requirement basisAvailability Possible action plans to meet the requirement Less than a yearAnnual BudgetExisting manpower Body shoppers/ contractors, overtime, (operational plans)(by proper distribution recruitment on contractual terms, of workload) + restructuring, and layoffs. contractual manpower 1-2 yearsForecasted budget or Current manpower less Transfer, promotion, new recruitment, forward budget projected attrition restructuring, redundancy, training (business plans) and development 2-5 yearsLong-term plansProjected manpower Succession plans, recruitment, training (including those and development, restructuring, trainees who will be redundancy inducted during the period) More than 5 yearsPerspective plansLabour market, Succession plans, management education systemdevelopment, organisational development, redeployment, job restructuring For better appreciation, we have explained a tentative table for manpower forecasts, below:

6. Excel Books Human Resource Management (2nd Edition) Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Copyright © 2006, Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Human Resource Planning Process Unit:7 Block: Two Human Resource Procurement 7-6 Analysis of Workload Factors To forecast the manpower requirements at different points of time, workload analysis is extremely important. Analysis of present and future workload depends on the possibility of quantifying the work content in every area of an organisational activity. Following steps help in workload analysis. 1. Classification of Work 2. Forecasting Number the of Jobs 3. Converting the Projected Jobs in Man-hours 4. Converting the Man-hours into Manpower Requirement Time Series Analysis When we record employment levels over a time period, we observe the following five distinct elements in it. 1. Trend 2. Cyclical Effects 3. Seasonality 4. Step 5. Random Fluctuations

7. Excel Books Human Resource Management (2nd Edition) Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Copyright © 2006, Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Human Resource Planning Process Unit:7 Block: Two Human Resource Procurement 7-7 Difficulties in Manpower Forecasts using Quantitative Tools 1. When productivity data is considered as available to decide about manpower requirement, it is important to understand that productivity rise cannot always be attributable to increased human effort. 2. It is difficult to get units of output in the same form for all jobs. 3. Relationship between output and manpower is not always straight forward. 4. Effect of factors to improve productivity, i.e., new technology, incentive schemes, etc., may not be consistent over a time period. 5. Data on past workload factors may not be available, creating difficulty in emulating the same. 6. Integration of manpower planning with corporate plans may not exist in an organisation, creating problems for enterprise-wide manpower plans. 7. Employees cannot always be related to output in a direct way. 8. Human Resource Information Systems (HRIS), may not exist in an organisation. Lack of such information support system leads to inaccurate estimation of manpower.

8. Excel Books Human Resource Management (2nd Edition) Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Copyright © 2006, Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Human Resource Planning Process Unit:7 Block: Two Human Resource Procurement 7-8 Cont…. Use of Qualitative Models for Better Managerial Judgement Delphi Technique The word ‘Delphi’ has come from Greek. In Athens of Greece during ancient times, it was a convention to consult an oracle representative of God Apollo who was believed to have contact with God. The advice of the oracle at that time could only be interpreted by the Priest. The procedure of Delphi Technique may be enumerated as follows: 1. To start with, it requires selection of a coordinator and a panel of experts both within and outside the organisations. 2. The coordinator then circulates questions in writing to each such expert. 3. The experts then write their observations. 4. Experts then answer such new set of questions. 5. The coordinator repeats the process till such time he is able to synthesise from the opinion of the experts.

9. Excel Books Human Resource Management (2nd Edition) Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Copyright © 2006, Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Human Resource Planning Process Unit:7 Block: Two Human Resource Procurement 7-9 The success of the process again depends on the following factors: 1. Experts should be so chosen that they have the requisite knowledge and skills to give the best answers. 2. Questions should be relevant to the objective. 3. Criteria for evaluating responses should be consistent, unbiased and befitting with the objectives. Nominal Group Method Like Delphi method, nominal group method also involves a panel of experts. However, the major difference between the two is that while under Delphi technique, experts are not allowed to discuss among themselves, for assessing the questions, under nominal group method experts are given the opportunity to discuss among themselves. Under this method, the coordinator assumes the role of a facilitator, allowing the experts to sit together to discus their ideas and records of such discussions are made on a flip chart.

10. Excel Books Human Resource Management (2nd Edition) Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Copyright © 2006, Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Human Resource Planning Process Unit:7 Block: Two Human Resource Procurement 7-10 Analysis of Manpower Supply Analysis of manpower supply at the enterprise level is also done using some quantitative techniques for accurate HRP. Some of the important techniques are discussed below: Wastage Analysis Tavistock Institute of Human Relations, U.K. suggested wastage analysis using the following curve. Induction Crisis Differentia l Transil Settled Connection Levers WeeksTime Month/Years

11. Excel Books Human Resource Management (2nd Edition) Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Copyright © 2006, Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Human Resource Planning Process Unit:7 Block: Two Human Resource Procurement 7-11 Different Methods of Wastage Analysis  Labour Turnover Index  Stability Index  Cohort Analysis  Census Analysis  Skills Inventories

12. Excel Books Human Resource Management (2nd Edition) Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Copyright © 2006, Dipak Kumar Bhattacharyya Human Resource Planning Process Unit:7 Block: Two Human Resource Procurement 7-12 Manpower Planning Models Use of mathematical models for manpower planning dates back 1779, when John Rowe developed an actuarial model for planning careers in the Royal Marines (Jones, 1964). Manpower systems are described in terms of stocks and flows. Stocks are the number of staff in the system at a given point of time. Stocks are divided into categories like, sex, age, length of service, etc.  Markov Models-Hierarchical Systems  Renewal Models  Cambridge Model  Simulation  Replacement Theory