1. Summing Up Results

2. Joseph Alcamo (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 2 Security Diagrams A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Drought: Results from the Security Diagrams Project Introduction & first resultsJoseph Alcamo Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought Frank Eierdanz The socio-economic dimension of assessing vulnerability to extreme climate events Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Assessing susceptibility of society: 1. An environmental psychology perspective 2. A political science perspective Doerthe Kroemker Doerthe Kroemker (for Dennis Tanzler) Summary of the projectJoseph Alcamo

3. Joseph Alcamo (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 3 Security Diagrams 1.Develop inference models: Adapt theory, select variables, specify relationships between variables, select indicators for variables. 2. Quantify the models based on fuzzy set theory 3.Collect data for indicators: (top-down and bottom-up from case study regions: Southern Portugal, Volga region, Andhra Pradesh) 4. Input data to model and compute susceptibility Procedure to Assess Susceptibility

4. Joseph Alcamo (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 4 Security Diagrams Economics Political Science Env. Psychology Susceptibility (1990s): Comparison of Perspectives Andhra Pradesh, India Southern Portugal Volga Region, Russia

5. Joseph Alcamo (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 5 Security Diagrams What have we learned from the different perspectives? Conclusions of Comparison Estimates S. Portugal similar  different perspectives give similar estimate for industrial countries? Estimates for Volga region very different: Corruption, conflict  Russia more susceptible (susceptibility similar to Andhra Pradesh) Education, personal resources  Russian less susceptible (susceptibility similar to Portugal) Consensus that Andhra Pradesh most susceptible  but large range  role of agrículture

6. Joseph Alcamo (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 6 Security Diagrams What have we learned from the different perspectives? Psychology.  factors about individuals – e.g. individual resourcefulness  barriers to action (lack of resources, lack of community support) What factors should be included in a general model of susceptibility to drought? Political  education  instability, corruption Economics  health of population  dependence on agriculture

7. Joseph Alcamo (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 7 Security Diagrams Summing Up Goal: Improve quantification of vulnerability to drought by quantifying and testing concepts of environmental stress, susceptibility and crisis 3 case study regions: Southern Portugal, Volga region, Andhra Pradesh Developed new approach to quantifying susceptibility  Inference modeling + fuzzy set theory  Allows comparison of different disciplinary perspective  Tool for (rapid) vulnerability assessments Used media analysis to identify crisis events  Provides independent variable for testing vulnerability estimates Verified indicators of water stress  Identified statistically-significant indicators & thresholds  Valuable for assessment of vulnerability

8. Joseph Alcamo (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 8 Security Diagrams Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel Joseph Alcamo (Project leader) Dörthe Krömker Frank Eierdanz (Project manager) Adelphi Research, Berlin Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Richard Klein Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Drought: Results from the Security Diagrams Project Funded by German Research Ministry Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Research Community  Montreal, Canada  16-18 October, 2003