1. Today’s Agenda –Public Opinion American Federal GovernmentAmerican Federal Government

2. Opinions are like a--- maybe we shouldn’t go there Definition –Political attitudes and beliefs expressed by ordinary citizens –But should we care? Founder’s thought not…we know Matthew…we know…they were afraid of direct democracy During the progressive era the idea of governing by public opinion became more popular with ballot initiatives and referendum

3. So now its popular…but what if people are stupid?? Starting in the 1960’s political scientists began to try to understand what influenced public opinion and political behavior –Michigan School (1960) wrote The American Voter, which stated that people didn’t have concrete beliefs and were unsophisticated. –What drove many beliefs were a combination of socialization and SES factors

4. But wait…maybe we aren’t stupid This movement was greatly fueled by the “Cognitive Revolution”, which attempted to examine the mental process individuals go through to come to decisions The Result: “Cognitive Short-cuts” “Cognitive Short-cuts” refer to the idea that we make large decisions based off of a small amount of ever-changing information we have picked up along the way

5. So where are we now? Well, to be honest political scientists are split between a more cognitive approach and some of the beliefs being espoused by the Michigan School Problem: Consistency and inconsistency in public opinion hurts and helps both models

6. So, why do I like Hillary Clinton? Well there are a lot of reasons and none of them have to do with her gripping personality –Family belief: We will become our parent’s (90% of us at least) –Education: Under and over educated are liberal, everyone else conservative –Religion: Traditionalists are conservative while modernists are more liberal

7. 42% of the class is getting bored There are several dimensions when it comes to public opinion –Direction: Which was does opinion go? –Saliency: How important is the issue? –Intensity: Is there urgency or depth? (strongly agree or just agree) –Stability: Movement of the other three over time…if opinion is unstable, don’t expect much action

8. So what is this + or – 3 points? When polling for public opinion there are a number of obstacles getting in the way of finding the true feelings of American’s –Sampling: We don’t actually survey the entire country (800-1,300 people, which leads to error) –Survey Instrument: Phone, Face-to-Face, mail –Socially Desirable Answers: Yes, people lie