Empirical comparison of historical data and age- structured assessment models for Prince William Sound and Sitka Sound Pacific herring Peter-John F. Hulson, Terrance J. Quinn II, Brenda L. Norcross, Gary D. Marty
Outline Background into comparison of Prince William Sound (PWS) and Sitka and Age-Structured Assessment (ASA) Compare/contrast data time series Similarities/differences in ASA model structure PWS: Hulson et al (2008), Marty et al (in prep) Sitka: 2007 stock assessment ASA modeling results
Background: Comparison of PWS and Sitka (Williams and Quinn, 2000a) Williams and Quinn (2000a, 2000b): Strong relationship found between PWS and Sitka Called for detailed comparison
Background: Age-Structured Assessment PWS and Sitka ASA models constructed in 1990s (Funk and Sandone, 1990). Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) currently employs ASA. Main features of ASA model: Integrates a number of datasets Connects observations across years with population dynamics Allows for variability in observations when estimating parameters Provides a statistical means to determine uncertainty in model output
Data: Total Fishery Yield PWS: Fishery closed in 1989, Fishery has remained closed since Sitka: Fishery open in all years from Recent increase in yield since 2005.
Sitka PWS Data: Spawning Age Composition Spawning population structures very similar from early 1980s to 2000 After 2000, population structure flattens in Sitka
Data: Weight-at-age Collected in spring before spawning Large inter-annual variability Decrease in weight-at-age during 1990s
Data: Weight-at-age Significant linear relationship and nearly 1-1 Large correlation between areas, especially older ages Sitka = *PWS R 2 = 0.989
Data: Egg deposition Measure of female spawning population abundance Dissimilar from PWS indicates large increase, no increase in Sitka until 1992 Similar in trend from Sitka deposition larger than PWS after 1994.
Data: Cumulative Miles of Milt Index for male spawning population abundance Similar from More variable and larger in Sitka after 1992, except in 1997
Model: Age-Structured Assessment
Population dynamics equations are identical Major differences: Natural mortality applied to age groups in PWS Natural mortality directly estimated in Sitka ASA (split in 1998), linear relationship with disease indices in PWS. Maturity-at-age estimated for age-3 and age-4 in PWS, logistic relationship used in Sitka. Split in 1998 in PWS, 2001 in Sitka.
Results: Maturity-at-age Early maturity-at-age nearly the same PWS: increase at age-3, decrease for age-4 after 1998 Sitka: significant decrease after 2001
Results: Natural Mortality : larger in PWS than Sitka nearly the same in PWS and Sitka 1999 to present, natural mortality is estimated to be lower in Sitka than PWS.
Results: Recruitment Recruitment of age-3 fish to population very similar Since 1994, total age-3 recruitment has been larger in Sitka than PWS.
Results: Spawning Biomass : PWS population increases to max, Sitka’s trend is variable : Both indicate significant decline in each year. : PWS population remains at low levels. Sitka population increases
Summary PWS: Low population abundance: High natural mortality Disease Low recruitment Sitka: Increasing abundance: Lower recent natural mortality more fish surviving to older age classes from similar magnitudes of recruitment, flattening age composition Larger recruitment than PWS sustaining population increase
Acknowledgments Funding sources: Alaska Fisheries Science Center Population Dynamics Fellowship Cooperative Institute for Arctic Research Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Commercial Fisheries Division EVOS Trustee Council Data and ASA model sources: PWS: Mr. Steve Moffitt, Sitka: Dr. Sherri Dressel
Questions