Charlie Cook’s Five Factors to Watch in 2015 Published October 4, 2013 Updated July 6, 2015 National Journal Presentation Credits Contributors: Charlie.

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Presentation transcript:

Charlie Cook’s Five Factors to Watch in 2015 Published October 4, 2013 Updated July 6, 2015 National Journal Presentation Credits Contributors: Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report Editor Producer: Katharine Conlon Director: Jessica Guzik, Afzal Bari The following slides were updated: Slides 3, 4, 5, 7, and 9.

2 Roadmap for the Presentation Presidential Job Approval Ratings Consumer Confidence Public Attitudes Towards ACA Democratic and Republican Party Favorability Ratings Generic Congressional Ballot Test

Source: Gallup Presidential Approval Center, June 22-28, Presidential Job Approval: Gallup Polling Gallup Weekly Presidential Approval Tracking: 2013 Year to Date I. Presidential Job Approval Ratings 3

Source: Gallup Presidential Approval Center, June 22-28, Presidential Job Approval: Gallup Polling Gallup Weekly Presidential Approval Tracking: 2014 Year to Date I. Presidential Job Approval Ratings 4

Approve Disapprove I. Presidential Job Approval Ratings Presidential Job Approval: Other Polls to Watch 5 5/ (1025 Adults ) 4/30-5/ (1027 Adults) 5/ (Registered Voters) 5/31-6/ (1006 Registered Voters) 6/ (1005 Registered Voters) 6/ (1000 Adults) 4/ (1000 Adults) 3/ (1500 Adults) 5/ (2002 Adults)

6 Roadmap for the Presentation Presidential Job Approval Ratings Consumer Confidence Public Attitudes Towards ACA Democratic and Republican Party Favorability Ratings Generic Congressional Ballot Test

The Economy: Consumer Confidence 7 Current Consumer Confidence (June ‘15): Current Consumer Sentiment level (June ‘15): 96.1 Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment II. Consumer Confidence Source: Conference Board, June 2015; Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, June Current Consumer Confidence (June‘15): Current Consumer Sentiment level (June ’15): 96.1

8 Roadmap for the Presentation Presidential Job Approval Ratings Consumer Confidence Public Attitudes Towards ACA Democratic and Republican Party Favorability Ratings Generic Congressional Ballot Test

ACA: Tracking Public Attitudes The Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally (favorable) or generally (unfavorable) opinion of it?” (Rotated - Participants then asked to choose between very/somewhat favorable/unfavorable) 9 Current Levels Total favorable: 43% III. Public Attitudes Towards ACA Total unfavorable: 40% Source: Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, July 1, Net favorability: 3%

ACA: Tracking Public Attitudes The Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll “Do you think the nation as a whole will be (better off) or (worse off) under the health reform law, or don’t you think it will make much difference? (options rotated) 10 III. Public Attitudes Towards ACA Source: Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, June Net favorability: -7%

ACA: Tracking Public Attitudes The Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll “Do you think you and your family will be (better off) or (worse off) under the health reform law, or don’t you think it will make much difference?” (options rotated) 11 III. Public Attitudes Towards ACA Source: Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, June Net : -8%

12 Roadmap for the Presentation Presidential Job Approval Ratings Consumer Confidence Public Attitudes Towards ACA Democratic and Republican Party Favorability Ratings Generic Congressional Ballot Test

Democratic Party Republican Party IV. Democratic and Republican Party Favorability Ratings Democratic and Republican Party Favorability Ratings 13 % Favorable % Unfavorable 10/ (1006 Adults) 12/ (1000 Adults) 5/ (1009 Adults) 7/29-8/ (1344 Adults) 11/ (1045 Adults) 9/ (803 Adults) CNN/ORC CBS News/New York Times ABC News/Washington Post

Democratic Party Republican Party IV. Democratic and Republican Party Favorability Ratings Democratic and Republican Party Favorability Ratings (Cont’d) 14 % Favorable% Unfavorable * NBC/WSJ data reflects combined “positive”/”negative” ratings for each party 10/ (2003 Adults) 1/ (800 Adults) 1/ (1504 Adults) 12/ (1000 Adults)* 10/ (1012 Registered Voters) 8/ (1001 Registered Voters)

Democratic Party Republican Party IV. Democratic and Republican Party Favorability Ratings Democratic and Republican Party Favorability Ratings (Cont’d) 15 % Favorable% Unfavorable 11/ (828 Adults) 3/ (1025 Adults)

16 Roadmap for the Presentation Presidential Job Approval Ratings Consumer Confidence Public Attitudes Towards ACA Democratic and Republican Party Favorability Ratings Generic Congressional Ballot Test

V. General Congressional Ballot Test Democrats vs. Republicans: The Generic Ballot 17 Democratic Party Republican Party 10/ (758 Likely Voters) 10/ (629 Likely Voters) 10/ (624 Likely Voters) 10/ (575 Likely Voters) 10/ (540 Likely Voters) 9/ (701Likely Voters) 10/ (734 Likely Voters) 10/ (831 Likely Voters) 10/ (666 Likely Voters) 10/30-11/ (826 Likely Voters) 10/ (1126 Likely Voters) 9/ (2002 Registered Voters)

V. General Congressional Ballot Test Democrats vs. Republicans: The Generic Ballot (Cont’d) 18 Democratic Party Republican Party 9/25-30 (1095 Likely Voters) 8/7-10 (Registered Voters)